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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing Employment fell to 51.2 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ISM Manufacturing Employment fell to 51.2 in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1.6 from July's 52.8 reading. The reading matched the 52.5 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 46.73. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
51.2
Actual
52.5
Consensus
52.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.71
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 54
Actual: 51.2
Error: +2.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Employment (United States) was reported at 51.20 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 52.50 by 1.30. The reading fell from the previous value of 52.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.84, ranging from 44.00 to 52.80 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 50.87, up from the prior three at 48.53. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.67) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.07). In September readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing Employment has averaged 47.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.71.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FOMC Economic Projections (Sep 16) and Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing Employment - US
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About ISM Manufacturing Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing Employment is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the manufacturing sector of the economy. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the labor market and the strength of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is based on a survey of purchasing managers and is considered a leading indicator of economic growth and potential changes in interest rates. Investors and policymakers closely monitor the ISM Manufacturing Employment to make informed decisions and forecasts about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 51.2, consensus 52.5. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 52.8. Before that (May 2026): 48.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.53) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |