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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing Employment climbed to 52.7 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US ISM Manufacturing Employment climbed to 52.7 in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.5 from August's 51.2 reading. The reading matched the 51.5 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 47.38. Over the past 3 months, ISM Manufacturing Employment averaged 52, vs 47.5 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
52.7
Actual
51.5
Consensus
51.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.59
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 51.93
Actual: 52.7
Error: -0.78
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Employment (United States) was reported at 52.70 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51.50 by 1.20. The reading rose from the previous value of 51.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.58, ranging from 44.00 to 52.80 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 52.23, up from the prior three at 48.70. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.88) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.98). In October readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing Employment has averaged 47.30.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.59.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Hammack Speech (Oct 12) and Budget Balance (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing Employment - US
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About ISM Manufacturing Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing Employment is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the manufacturing sector of the economy. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the labor market and the strength of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is based on a survey of purchasing managers and is considered a leading indicator of economic growth and potential changes in interest rates. Investors and policymakers closely monitor the ISM Manufacturing Employment to make informed decisions and forecasts about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 52.7, consensus 51.5. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 51.2. Before that (Jul 2026): 52.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.54) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 46.3 | 48.1 | 47.6 | 46.95 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 47.3 | 46.3 | 45.9 | 46.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 44.7 | 50.9 | 50.5 | 47.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 98 | 98.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 334.131 | 335.8 | 335.08 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 334.98 | 336.8 | 336.43 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 334.98 | 336.5 | 336.50 | High | |