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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing Employment climbed to 48.6 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US ISM Manufacturing Employment climbed to 48.6 in May 2026, released June 2026, up 2.2 from April's 46.4 reading. The reading matched the 46.6 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 46.06. Over the past 3 months, ISM Manufacturing Employment averaged 47.55, vs 47.27 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
48.6
Actual
46.6
Consensus
46.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.59
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 46.65
Actual: 48.6
Error: -1.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Employment (United States) was reported at 48.60 in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 46.60 by 2.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 46.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 46.47, ranging from 43.80 to 48.80 across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 48.70, up from the prior three at 45.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.97) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.96). In June readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing Employment has averaged 48.83.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.59.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Balance of Trade (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing Employment - US
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About ISM Manufacturing Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing Employment is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the manufacturing sector of the economy. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the labor market and the strength of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is based on a survey of purchasing managers and is considered a leading indicator of economic growth and potential changes in interest rates. Investors and policymakers closely monitor the ISM Manufacturing Employment to make informed decisions and forecasts about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 48.6, consensus 46.6. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 46.4. Before that (Mar 2026): 48.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |