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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing New Orders climbed to 55.3 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US ISM Manufacturing New Orders climbed to 55.3 in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.6 from August's 53.7 reading. The reading matched the 53.9 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 6.4. Over the past 3 months, ISM Manufacturing New Orders averaged 55.2, vs 55.45 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
55.3
Actual
53.9
Consensus
53.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.71
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 53.65
Actual: 55.3
Error: -1.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing New Orders (United States) was reported at 55.30 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 53.90 by 1.40. The reading rose from the previous value of 53.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.34, ranging from 47.40 to 57.10 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 55.23, down from the prior three at 55.37. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.61) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.76). In October readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing New Orders has averaged 50.10.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.71.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing New Orders - US
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About ISM Manufacturing New Orders — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing New Orders is a key economic indicator that measures the level of new orders placed by manufacturing companies in the United States. This data provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the manufacturing sector, as well as the overall state of the economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and forecasts. A higher reading indicates increased demand for goods, while a lower reading may signal a slowdown in economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 55.3, consensus 53.9. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 53.7. Before that (Jul 2026): 56.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |