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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing New Orders climbed to 56.8 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US ISM Manufacturing New Orders climbed to 56.8 in May 2026, released June 2026, up 2.7 from April's 54.1 reading. The reading matched the 54.3 consensus. ISM Manufacturing New Orders has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, ISM Manufacturing New Orders averaged 53.8, vs 53.53 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
56.8
Actual
54.3
Consensus
54.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.86
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 53.55
Actual: 56.8
Error: -3.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing New Orders (United States) was reported at 56.80 in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 54.30 by 2.50. The reading rose from the previous value of 54.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.51, ranging from 47.10 to 57.10 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 55.37, up from the prior three at 50.73. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.79) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.91). In June readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing New Orders has averaged 49.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.86.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing New Orders - US
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About ISM Manufacturing New Orders — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing New Orders is a key economic indicator that measures the level of new orders placed by manufacturing companies in the United States. This data provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the manufacturing sector, as well as the overall state of the economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and forecasts. A higher reading indicates increased demand for goods, while a lower reading may signal a slowdown in economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 56.8, consensus 54.3. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 54.1. Before that (Mar 2026): 53.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.