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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing New Orders fell to 53.7 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ISM Manufacturing New Orders fell to 53.7 in August 2026, released September 2026, down 3 from July's 56.7 reading. The reading matched the 56 consensus. ISM Manufacturing New Orders has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
53.7
Actual
56
Consensus
56.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.71
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 56.65
Actual: 53.7
Error: +2.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing New Orders (United States) was reported at 53.70 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 56.00 by 2.30. The reading fell from the previous value of 56.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.70, ranging from 47.40 to 57.10 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 55.73, up from the prior three at 55.47. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.77) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.90). In September readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing New Orders has averaged 49.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.71.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing New Orders - US
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About ISM Manufacturing New Orders — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing New Orders is a key economic indicator that measures the level of new orders placed by manufacturing companies in the United States. This data provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the manufacturing sector, as well as the overall state of the economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and forecasts. A higher reading indicates increased demand for goods, while a lower reading may signal a slowdown in economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 53.7, consensus 56. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 56.7. Before that (May 2026): 56.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |