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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1 from July's 55.6 reading. The reading matched the 55.2 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 50.88. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54.6
Actual
55.2
Consensus
55.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 56
Actual: 54.6
Error: +1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing PMI (United States) was reported at 54.60 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 55.20 by 0.60. The reading fell from the previous value of 55.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.58, ranging from 47.90 to 55.60 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 54.73, up from the prior three at 52.57. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.71) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.19). In September readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.17.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.70.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI - US
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About ISM Manufacturing PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the level of activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the current state of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can provide early indications of changes in economic trends and potential shifts in market conditions. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. Overall, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key tool for assessing the health and performance of the manufacturing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 54.6, consensus 55.2. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 55.6. Before that (May 2026): 54.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.67) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |