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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1 from August's 54.6 reading. The reading matched the 55 consensus. ISM Manufacturing PMI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, ISM Manufacturing PMI averaged 55.1, vs 53.35 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54.5
Actual
55
Consensus
54.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 55.25
Actual: 54.5
Error: +0.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing PMI (United States) was reported at 54.50 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 55.00 by 0.50. The reading fell from the previous value of 54.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.12, ranging from 47.90 to 55.60 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 54.90, up from the prior three at 53.03. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.70) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.10). In October readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.27.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.70.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI - US
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About ISM Manufacturing PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the level of activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the current state of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can provide early indications of changes in economic trends and potential shifts in market conditions. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. Overall, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key tool for assessing the health and performance of the manufacturing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 54.5, consensus 55. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 54.6. Before that (Jul 2026): 55.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.63) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |