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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54 in May 2026, released June 2026, up 1.3 from April's 52.7 reading. The reading matched the 53 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 49.85. Over the past 3 months, ISM Manufacturing PMI averaged 52.7, vs 50.97 in the prior 3-month window. ISM Manufacturing PMI is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
54
Actual
53
Consensus
52.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 53.1
Actual: 54
Error: -0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing PMI (United States) was reported at 54.00 in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 53.00 by 1.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 52.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.23, ranging from 47.90 to 54.00 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 53.03, up from the prior three at 49.57. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.26) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.30). In June readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.40.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.70.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI - US
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About ISM Manufacturing PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the level of activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the current state of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can provide early indications of changes in economic trends and potential shifts in market conditions. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. Overall, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key tool for assessing the health and performance of the manufacturing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 54, consensus 53. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 52.7. Before that (Mar 2026): 52.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.