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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Income MoM climbed to 0.4% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Personal Income MoM climbed to 0.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.2% from June's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.2% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.27%. Over the past 3 months, Personal Income MoM averaged 0.45%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 55th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.17
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Personal Income MoM (United States) was reported at 0.4% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.35%, ranging from 0% to 0.7% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Personal Income MoM has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Personal Income MoM - US
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About Personal Income MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Personal Income MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total income received by individuals in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall financial health of individuals and their ability to spend and save, which in turn impacts consumer spending and economic growth. It is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors as it reflects the current state of the economy and can help inform financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |