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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Income MoM fell to 0.2% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Personal Income MoM fell to 0.2% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from July's 0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.4% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.33%. Over the past 3 months, Personal Income MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.43
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Personal Income MoM (United States) was reported at 0.2% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from 0% to 0.7% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, down from the prior three at 0.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Personal Income MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Personal Income MoM - US
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About Personal Income MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Personal Income MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total income received by individuals in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall financial health of individuals and their ability to spend and save, which in turn impacts consumer spending and economic growth. It is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors as it reflects the current state of the economy and can help inform financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |