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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Income MoM fell to 0.2% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Personal Income MoM fell to 0.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.5% from May's 0.7% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, Personal Income MoM averaged 0.35%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.27
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Personal Income MoM (United States) was reported at 0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.35%, ranging from 0% to 0.7% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, down from the prior three at 0.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Personal Income MoM has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Aug 18) and Import Prices MoM (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Personal Income MoM - US
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About Personal Income MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Personal Income MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total income received by individuals in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall financial health of individuals and their ability to spend and save, which in turn impacts consumer spending and economic growth. It is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors as it reflects the current state of the economy and can help inform financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15.6 | 11 | 15.80 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 231.2 | 151.4 | 162.05 | Medium |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | 19 | -4.7 | -4.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.427 | 1.35 | 1.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 10.2 | 9.6 | 9.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.6 | 1.2 | 3.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.40 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -5.4 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -0.3 | 1.4 | 3.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1808 | 1804.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 211.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |