US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for December 2025: A Stronger-Than-Expected 0.50% Gain
Key Takeaways: December 2025 retail sales excluding autos rose 0.50% month-over-month, surpassing the 0.40% consensus and prior 0.40% reading. This marks a sustained upward momentum compared to recent months and the 12-month average of 0.30%. The data signals resilient consumer demand amid tightening monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Table of Contents
US Retail Sales Ex Autos for December 2025 increased by 0.50% month-over-month, beating the 0.40% estimate and improving on November’s 0.40% gain. This reading, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a robust consumer spending environment despite headwinds from monetary tightening and global uncertainties.
Drivers this month
- Core retail categories such as electronics and clothing showed above-average growth.
- Holiday season spending extended into early December, supporting durable goods demand.
- Excluding autos, which can be volatile, the underlying retail strength signals broad-based consumer resilience.
Policy pulse
The Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate hikes to combat inflation have yet to significantly dampen retail activity. The 0.50% gain exceeds the 12-month average of 0.30%, suggesting that consumer spending remains a key pillar supporting economic growth despite tighter financial conditions.
Market lens
Following the release, US Treasury yields edged higher, with the 2-year yield rising 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of continued Fed vigilance. The US dollar strengthened modestly against major currencies, while equity markets showed mixed reactions, balancing optimism on consumer strength with inflation concerns.
December’s 0.50% MoM increase in retail sales ex autos compares favorably to recent months: November posted 0.40%, October 0.30%, and September 0.70%. The 12-month average growth rate stands at 0.30%, underscoring December’s above-trend performance. Year-over-year, retail sales ex autos have grown approximately 4.20%, reflecting steady consumer demand.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary stance, with the federal funds rate near 5.50%, has tightened credit conditions. Yet, consumer spending remains resilient, supported by strong labor market fundamentals and wage growth. Inflation pressures have moderated but remain above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping policy cautious.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus has waned since 2024, but government spending on infrastructure and social programs continues to support disposable incomes. The federal budget deficit remains elevated but stable, limiting additional fiscal stimulus in the near term.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain normalization and easing energy prices have helped retail inventories and consumer prices. However, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia pose downside risks to consumer confidence and trade flows.
This chart highlights a resilient retail sector that is trending upward after mid-2025 volatility. The steady gains in retail sales ex autos indicate sustained consumer confidence and spending power, which could buffer the economy against potential monetary tightening effects in early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US dollar index rose 0.30% post-release, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.20%, reflecting cautious optimism. Breakeven inflation rates held steady, signaling stable inflation expectations despite robust consumer spending.
Looking ahead, retail sales ex autos face a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The labor market remains tight, supporting incomes and spending. However, rising interest rates and potential geopolitical disruptions could weigh on consumer confidence.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Continued wage growth and easing inflation boost real incomes.
- Supply chains fully normalize, reducing price pressures.
- Retail sales ex autos grow 0.60–0.80% monthly through Q1 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate economic growth with retail sales ex autos rising 0.30–0.50% monthly.
- Fed pauses rate hikes as inflation stabilizes near 2.50%.
- Consumer spending remains steady but cautious amid global uncertainties.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks or sharper Fed tightening depress consumer confidence.
- Retail sales ex autos contract or grow below 0.10% monthly.
- Risk of recessionary pressures emerging in late 2026.
December 2025’s retail sales ex autos reading of 0.50% MoM, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, underscores the resilience of US consumer spending amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. While monetary policy remains restrictive, strong labor market conditions and easing supply constraints support ongoing demand. Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming inflation data and geopolitical developments closely, as these will shape the trajectory of retail activity and broader economic growth in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
Retail sales ex autos is a critical gauge of consumer health and economic momentum. Markets that track this indicator closely include US equities, the US dollar, and interest rate-sensitive assets. Below are five tradable symbols with strong historical correlations to retail sales data, providing insight into market sentiment and positioning following the December 2025 release.
- SPX – The S&P 500 index often reacts to retail sales as a proxy for consumer-driven earnings growth.
- USDEUR – The USD/EUR currency pair reflects shifts in US economic strength relative to Europe.
- USDJPY – Sensitive to US interest rate expectations influenced by retail data.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often moves inversely to risk sentiment driven by economic data.
- AMZN – Amazon’s stock price is closely tied to retail sales trends and consumer spending patterns.
Since 2020, SPX and retail sales ex autos have shown a positive correlation, with retail data often serving as a leading indicator for equity market rallies. Notably, sharp dips in retail sales have coincided with equity pullbacks, underscoring the importance of consumer spending for market health.
FAQ
- What does the Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM measure?
- The Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM measures the monthly percentage change in US retail sales excluding automobile sales, providing insight into core consumer spending trends.
- Why exclude autos from retail sales data?
- Automobile sales are excluded because they are volatile and can distort the underlying trend in consumer spending on other goods and services.
- How does this data impact monetary policy?
- Strong retail sales can signal robust consumer demand, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates to manage inflation and growth.
Takeaway: December’s 0.50% rise in retail sales ex autos highlights resilient US consumer spending, supporting economic growth despite tighter monetary policy and global risks.
December 2025’s 0.50% MoM rise in retail sales ex autos outpaces November’s 0.40% and the 12-month average of 0.30%. This marks a continuation of a positive trend following a modest dip in June 2025 (-0.30%). The recent months—July (0.50%), August (0.30%), September (0.70%)—show a generally upward trajectory.
Compared to October’s 0.30%, December’s gain signals strengthening consumer demand heading into 2026. The data suggests that despite tighter financial conditions, retail sales excluding autos remain a reliable growth driver.