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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM fell to -0.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM fell to -0.3% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's -0.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.5%. Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.77% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: -0.3
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (United States) was reported at -0.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.31%, ranging from -0.3% to 0.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.36%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM has averaged 0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM - US
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About Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in retail sales, excluding the volatile automotive sector. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth. It is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it reflects the strength of consumer demand and can impact the performance of the retail sector and the economy as a whole. A positive reading indicates an increase in retail sales, while a negative reading suggests a decline.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |