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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM fell to -0.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM fell to -0.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.2% from May's 1.0% reading. The reading missed the -0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.55%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM averaged 1.13%, vs 0.17% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (United States) was reported at -0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.36%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.29%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include API Crude Oil Stock Change (Jul 21) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jul 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM - US
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About Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in retail sales, excluding the volatile automotive sector. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth. It is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it reflects the strength of consumer demand and can impact the performance of the retail sector and the economy as a whole. A positive reading indicates an increase in retail sales, while a negative reading suggests a decline.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.70) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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