The US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for November 2025 registered a 0.30% increase, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure trails the consensus estimate of 0.40% and the prior month’s robust 0.60% gain. Despite the slowdown, the reading remains above the six-month average of approximately 0.25%, signaling ongoing consumer demand outside the volatile auto sector.

Drivers this month

• Core retail categories such as electronics and apparel contributed positively, offsetting weakness in furniture and building materials.
• Online retail sales growth slowed but remained positive, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid inflation concerns.
• Service-related retail segments showed steady gains, supporting overall retail resilience.

Policy pulse

The 0.30% gain sits below the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation target pace, suggesting some easing in consumer price pressures. However, the persistence of positive retail sales outside autos indicates underlying demand strength, complicating the Fed’s decision matrix on interest rates.

Market lens

In the immediate aftermath, the US dollar index (USD) strengthened modestly, while 2-year Treasury yields edged up 5 basis points, reflecting a mixed market interpretation of the data’s implications for monetary tightening.

Retail sales excluding autos serve as a core macroeconomic indicator, closely tied to consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP. The November 0.30% MoM increase aligns with steady consumption patterns amid moderate inflation and labor market tightness. Compared to historical data from the Sigmanomics database, this reading is below October’s 0.60% but above the negative dips seen in February (-0.40%) and June (-0.30%) 2025.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate hikes have tightened financial conditions, reflected in higher borrowing costs and compressed credit availability. Despite this, retail sales ex autos have shown resilience, suggesting consumers are adapting but may face limits if rates rise further.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal stimulus remains limited, with government spending growth subdued in 2025. The lack of significant fiscal support places greater emphasis on private consumption and labor income, which have held up due to steady employment gains and wage growth.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global uncertainties, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, continue to pose downside risks. These factors could dampen consumer confidence and spending, especially in durable goods categories.

Seasonal adjustments and inflation effects have moderated the headline growth, with real retail sales growth estimated closer to 0.10-0.20% after price effects. The data underscores the importance of non-auto sectors in driving consumption trends and highlights the mixed signals in consumer behavior amid macroeconomic headwinds.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The US dollar index rose 0.15%, while 2-year Treasury yields increased by 5 basis points, reflecting cautious optimism about economic resilience but tempered expectations for aggressive Fed hikes.

Looking ahead, retail sales ex autos face a range of scenarios shaped by monetary policy, inflation dynamics, and external risks. The baseline forecast anticipates continued moderate growth of 0.20-0.40% MoM over the next quarter, supported by steady labor market conditions and manageable inflation.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation eases faster than expected, boosting real incomes and consumer confidence.
• Supply chain normalization reduces costs and improves product availability.
• Fiscal policy shifts toward targeted stimulus, supporting discretionary spending.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Retail sales grow steadily at 0.20-0.40% MoM, reflecting balanced consumer demand and cautious spending.
• Fed pauses rate hikes as inflation stabilizes near target.
• Geopolitical tensions remain contained, limiting shocks to confidence.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation remains sticky, eroding purchasing power and curbing spending.
• Credit tightening and higher borrowing costs depress consumer loans.
• External shocks, such as energy price spikes or geopolitical escalation, reduce demand.

These scenarios highlight the delicate balance policymakers and markets must navigate. Retail sales ex autos will remain a key barometer for economic health and inflationary pressures in the coming months.

The November 2025 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM reading of 0.30% signals a resilient but cautious consumer sector. While growth has slowed from earlier peaks, it remains above the six-month average, underscoring steady demand outside the auto market. The data aligns with a macro environment characterized by tighter monetary policy, subdued fiscal support, and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Financial markets reacted with modest US dollar strength and higher short-term yields, reflecting a nuanced view of the Fed’s path and economic momentum. Going forward, monitoring retail sales ex autos will be critical for assessing the sustainability of consumer-driven growth and inflation trends.

Investors and policymakers should weigh upside potential from easing inflation and fiscal support against downside risks from credit conditions and external shocks. The balance of these forces will shape the trajectory of US economic growth into 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM

The Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is a vital gauge of consumer spending trends, influencing multiple asset classes. Markets sensitive to US consumption data typically include equities, fixed income, and currencies. Below are five tradable symbols with historical correlations to this indicator:

• SPY – Tracks US equity market sentiment, highly sensitive to consumer spending data.
• USDEUR – Reflects currency market reactions to US economic strength.
• AMZN – Retail giant, directly impacted by consumer spending trends.
• BTCUSD – Crypto market often reacts to macroeconomic shifts and risk sentiment.
• USDJPY – Sensitive to US monetary policy and risk appetite changes.

Insight: Retail Sales Ex Autos vs. SPY Since 2020

Since 2020, monthly changes in Retail Sales Ex Autos have shown a positive correlation (~0.65) with SPY returns over subsequent weeks. Periods of strong retail growth, such as mid-2021 and late 2023, coincided with equity rallies. Conversely, retail contractions often preceded market pullbacks. This relationship underscores retail sales as a leading indicator for US equity performance, highlighting the importance of monitoring this data for portfolio positioning.

FAQs

What is the significance of the Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM indicator?

The Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM measures monthly changes in consumer spending excluding automobiles, providing insight into core consumption trends and economic health.

How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?

At 0.30%, November’s reading is below October’s 0.60% but above the six-month average of 0.25%, indicating moderate but steady growth.

What are the main risks to retail sales growth going forward?

Risks include persistent inflation, tighter credit conditions, and geopolitical shocks that could reduce consumer confidence and spending.

Final Takeaway: November’s Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM data confirms a resilient consumer sector navigating tighter financial conditions and external risks. The path ahead depends on inflation dynamics and policy responses, with steady but cautious growth expected.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/25/25