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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Sales YoY climbed to 6.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Retail Sales YoY climbed to 6.3% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.7% from August's 5.6% reading. The print exceeded the 5.2% consensus by 1.1%. Retail Sales YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 5.5%, vs 5.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.3
Actual
5.2
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.28
Actual: 6.3
Error: -1.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (United States) was reported at 6.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.2% by 1.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.68%, ranging from 2.4% to 6.9% across 12 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.77%, down from the prior three at 6.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.45%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.75%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - US
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About Retail Sales YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 6.3 %, consensus 5.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.4 | -2.1 | -0.2 | -0.30 | Medium |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.398 | 1.403 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 2.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.65 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.55 | High |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.60 | Medium |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 444.6 | 443.2 | 444.4 | 444.50 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | -0.4 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.25 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | -2 | 0 | -1.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 0 | -5 | -7 | -3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.676 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.66 | High |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 91.7 | 84.2 | 81 | 86.35 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | -0.6 | 5.1 | -3.5 | -2.05 | High |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 4.4 | -0.9 | -2 | 1.20 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | 4 | -1.8 | -3 | 0.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 15:45 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 17:00 | US | Money Supply | 23.41 | 23.34 | 23.4 | 23.41 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.031 | -4.93 | 0.8 | -0.62 | Medium |
| 20:50 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.031 | -4.93 | 0.8 | -0.62 | Medium |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -0.82 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -1.94 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 0.47 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |