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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Total Vehicle Sales fell to 16M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Total Vehicle Sales fell to 16M in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.8M from August's 16.8M reading. The reading matched the 16.6M consensus. Total Vehicle Sales has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Total Vehicle Sales averaged 20.45M, vs 16.2M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
16
Actual
16.6
Consensus
16.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 18.68
Actual: 16
Error: +2.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Total Vehicle Sales (United States) was reported at 16.00 million in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 16.60 million by 0.60 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 16.80 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.64 million, ranging from 14.90 million to 24.10 million across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 18.97 million, up from the prior three at 16.30 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.30 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.63 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Total Vehicle Sales has averaged 16.07 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.70 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Total Vehicle Sales - US
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About Total Vehicle Sales — United States
DEFINITION
Total Vehicle Sales is a financial indicator that measures the total number of vehicles sold within a specific time period. It is a key metric used to assess the health of the automotive industry and consumer spending. This indicator provides valuable insights into the demand for new vehicles and can be used by investors, economists, and businesses to make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 16 M, consensus 16.6 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 16.8 M. Before that (Jul 2026): 24.1 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.83) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |