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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Total Vehicle Sales climbed to 16.8M in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Total Vehicle Sales climbed to 16.8M in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.5M from July's 16.3M reading. The reading matched the 16.3M consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.7M. Over the past 3 months, Total Vehicle Sales averaged 20.3M, vs 16.15M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
16.8
Actual
16.3
Consensus
16.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.61 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 17.7
Actual: 16.8
Error: +0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Total Vehicle Sales (United States) was reported at 16.80 million in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16.30 million by 0.50 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 16.30 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.68 million, ranging from 14.90 million to 24.10 million across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 19.13 million, up from the prior three at 16.23 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.30 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.66 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Total Vehicle Sales has averaged 16.00 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.61 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Total Vehicle Sales - US
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About Total Vehicle Sales — United States
DEFINITION
Total Vehicle Sales is a financial indicator that measures the total number of vehicles sold within a specific time period. It is a key metric used to assess the health of the automotive industry and consumer spending. This indicator provides valuable insights into the demand for new vehicles and can be used by investors, economists, and businesses to make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 16.8 M, consensus 16.3 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 24.1 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 16.5 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.88) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |