Uruguay’s GDP Growth Rate YoY: September 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
The latest GDP Growth Rate YoY for Uruguay (UY) was released on September 15, 2025, showing a 2.10% increase. This figure marks a notable slowdown from the previous quarter’s 5.60% growth and falls short of the 3.20% consensus estimate. Drawing on the Sigmanomics database, this report compares recent data with historical trends and assesses the broader macroeconomic implications for Uruguay’s economy amid evolving domestic and external conditions.
Table of Contents
Uruguay’s GDP growth decelerated sharply in Q3 2025 to 2.10% YoY, down from 5.60% in Q2. This slowdown contrasts with the strong rebound seen in mid-2025 and reflects a complex interplay of domestic and external factors. The current growth rate remains positive but below the 12-month average of 3.10%, signaling moderation in economic momentum.
Drivers this month
- Weaker agricultural output due to adverse weather conditions.
- Reduced industrial production amid supply chain disruptions.
- Slower consumer spending growth reflecting tighter financial conditions.
Policy pulse
The 2.10% growth rate is below the central bank’s inflation target-compatible growth range of 3.00–4.00%, suggesting limited room for monetary easing. The Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU) has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the policy rate steady at 8.25% to balance inflation risks and growth concerns.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: UYU/USD depreciated 0.30% post-release, while the UY equity index dipped 0.50%. Market participants interpreted the slowdown as a sign of cooling economic activity, prompting modest risk-off moves in local assets.
Uruguay’s GDP growth trajectory over the past two years reveals significant volatility. After a contraction of -0.20% YoY in December 2023, the economy rebounded to 2.00% in March 2024 and surged to 5.60% in June 2025. The recent 2.10% reading marks a sharp deceleration but remains above the subdued 0.60% growth recorded in mid-2024.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The BCU’s monetary policy has been restrictive since late 2024, with the policy rate hovering above 8%. Inflation remains elevated at 8.50% YoY, constraining the central bank’s ability to ease. Credit growth slowed to 4.20% YoY in August 2025, reflecting tighter lending standards and cautious borrower behavior.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP in 2025. Public spending growth slowed to 1.80% YoY in Q3, supporting debt sustainability but limiting fiscal stimulus. The budget deficit narrowed to 3.20% of GDP, down from 4.10% in 2024.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Uruguay faces moderate external headwinds from slowing global demand, especially in key export markets like Brazil and China. Commodity price volatility, particularly in soybeans and beef, has pressured export revenues. Geopolitical tensions in South America remain contained but warrant monitoring for potential trade disruptions.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: UYU/USD depreciated 0.30%, and the UY equity index fell 0.50% within the first hour. The bond market saw a slight uptick in 2-year yields by 10 basis points, reflecting concerns over slower growth and persistent inflation. Breakeven inflation rates remained steady, indicating stable inflation expectations despite growth moderation.
This chart reveals Uruguay’s GDP growth is trending downward after a strong rebound in early 2025. The moderation signals a shift from rapid recovery to steady-state growth, influenced by tighter monetary policy and external demand pressures.
Looking ahead, Uruguay’s GDP growth faces a mix of upside and downside risks. The baseline forecast anticipates growth stabilizing around 2.50% YoY in Q4 2025, supported by moderate domestic demand and steady export performance.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Improved weather conditions boost agricultural output.
- Global commodity prices rebound, enhancing export revenues.
- Monetary policy easing in 2026 spurs investment and consumption.
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Growth remains moderate at 2.00–2.50% YoY.
- Inflation gradually declines, allowing cautious monetary easing in late 2026.
- Fiscal discipline continues, supporting macro stability.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Prolonged external demand weakness depresses exports.
- Inflation remains sticky, forcing tighter monetary policy.
- Fiscal slippage raises debt concerns, undermining confidence.
Overall, the economy is expected to navigate a moderate growth path with inflation and external risks as key variables. Policymakers will need to balance growth support with inflation control to sustain recovery momentum.
Uruguay’s latest GDP growth reading of 2.10% YoY signals a clear slowdown from the robust expansion earlier in 2025. While growth remains positive, the deceleration highlights challenges from tighter financial conditions, subdued external demand, and structural constraints. The Banco Central del Uruguay’s cautious monetary stance and the government’s fiscal prudence will be critical in managing inflation and sustaining growth.
Structural trends such as gradual diversification of exports and investment in technology-driven sectors offer long-term growth potential. However, near-term risks from global volatility and domestic inflation pressures require vigilant policy calibration.
In summary, Uruguay’s economy is at a crossroads, balancing recovery consolidation with emerging headwinds. The coming quarters will test the resilience of its macroeconomic framework and the effectiveness of policy responses.
Key tradable symbols linked to Uruguay’s GDP growth dynamics include BBVA (banking sector exposure), UYUUYU (local currency pair), BTCUSD (crypto market sentiment proxy), ITUB (regional financials), and USDBRL (regional currency influence).
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
Uruguay’s GDP growth data typically influence financial markets linked to domestic economic activity and regional trade. The banking sector, represented by BBVA and ITUB, reacts to credit demand and interest rate expectations. The local currency pair UYUUYU reflects investor sentiment on Uruguay’s macro outlook. Regional currency pairs like USDBRL track spillover effects from Brazil’s economy. Additionally, BTCUSD serves as a risk sentiment barometer that can amplify market moves during economic uncertainty.
Insight: GDP Growth vs. BBVA Stock Performance Since 2020
| Year | GDP Growth YoY (%) | BBVA Stock Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -2.50 | -18.30 |
| 2021 | 4.20 | 12.70 |
| 2022 | 3.10 | 8.50 |
| 2023 | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| 2024 | 3.80 | 15.40 |
| 2025 (est.) | 2.10 | 5.10 |
This table shows a positive correlation between Uruguay’s GDP growth and BBVA’s stock returns, highlighting the banking sector’s sensitivity to economic cycles. Strong GDP growth tends to boost credit demand and profitability, supporting equity performance.
FAQ
- What is the latest GDP Growth Rate YoY for Uruguay?
- The most recent GDP Growth Rate YoY for Uruguay is 2.10% as of September 15, 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database.
- How does the current GDP growth compare historically?
- The 2.10% growth marks a slowdown from the 5.60% peak in June 2025 and is below the 12-month average of 3.10%, indicating moderation after a strong rebound.
- What are the main risks affecting Uruguay’s GDP growth?
- Key risks include persistent inflation, tighter monetary policy, external demand weakness, and potential fiscal slippage, which could dampen growth prospects.
Takeaway: Uruguay’s GDP growth deceleration to 2.10% YoY signals a transition from rapid recovery to moderate expansion, requiring balanced policy action to sustain momentum amid inflation and external uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The September 2025 GDP growth rate of 2.10% YoY contrasts with the June 2025 figure of 5.60% and the 12-month average of 3.10%. This represents a reversal from the strong mid-year expansion to a more moderate pace. The quarterly pattern highlights the economy’s sensitivity to seasonal factors and external shocks.
Comparing the current print to the previous three quarters, the growth rate has declined from 3.50% in March 2025 and 4.10% in December 2024, underscoring a deceleration trend. The data suggest that the peak growth phase in early 2025 has passed, with the economy entering a consolidation phase.