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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UruguayUruguay Interest Rate Decision climbed to 6.0% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Uruguay Interest Rate Decision climbed to 6.0% in October 2026, up 0.25% from September's 5.75% reading. The reading matched the 5.75% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 7.96%. The reading is in the 23rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6
Actual
5.75
Consensus
5.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.75
Actual: 6
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.95 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Uruguay) was reported at 6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.75% by 0.25%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.75%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.83%, down from the prior three at 7.92%. In October readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 7.58%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - UY
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About Interest Rate Decision — Uruguay
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 6 %, consensus 5.75 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 5.75 %. Before that (May 2026): 5.75 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.95) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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