Uzbekistan’s Current Account Swings to Surplus: A Data-Driven Macro Analysis
Table of Contents
Uzbekistan’s current account balance recorded a remarkable turnaround in the latest release on October 2, 2025. According to the Sigmanomics database, the current account swung from a deficit of -421.60 million UZS in the previous quarter to a surplus of 265.30 million UZS, vastly exceeding the consensus estimate of -200 million UZS. This marks the first positive reading since early 2024, signaling a significant shift in external balances amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
Drivers this month
- Strong export growth in textiles and natural gas boosted foreign earnings.
- Reduced import demand due to tighter domestic credit conditions.
- Improved remittance inflows from Uzbek diaspora in Russia and Kazakhstan.
Policy pulse
The current account surplus aligns with the central bank’s efforts to stabilize the currency and control inflation. Monetary tightening since mid-2025 has dampened import growth, supporting external balance improvements.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The UZS appreciated 0.80% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the USDUZS pair showed increased volatility. Local bond yields declined slightly, reflecting improved external confidence.
The current account surplus of 265.30 million UZS contrasts sharply with the deep deficits recorded over the past 18 months. Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows deficits of -3621.50 million UZS in April 2024, -1379.30 million UZS in June 2024, and -718.10 million UZS in September 2024. The latest print is a clear inflection point.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Uzbekistan’s central bank has maintained a restrictive stance since Q2 2025, raising policy rates by 150 basis points cumulatively. This has curbed credit growth and import demand, contributing to the current account improvement. Inflation remains elevated but shows signs of moderation, supporting a cautious easing outlook.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts, including expenditure controls and improved tax collection, have reduced the government’s external financing needs. The budget deficit narrowed to 2.50% of GDP in Q2 2025, down from 4.10% in 2024, easing pressure on the current account.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Regional geopolitical tensions have stabilized, reducing trade disruptions. However, risks remain from volatile commodity prices and potential sanctions affecting key trading partners. Uzbekistan’s diversified export base has helped mitigate these risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The UZBE equity index rallied 1.30% post-release, reflecting optimism about external stability. The UZTUSDT crypto pair showed muted response, indicating limited spillover into digital assets.
This chart highlights a strong upward trend in Uzbekistan’s current account, reversing a prolonged deficit cycle. The improvement signals enhanced external resilience and potential for currency stabilization, supporting positive investor sentiment.
Looking ahead, Uzbekistan’s current account trajectory depends on several factors. The baseline scenario (60% probability) anticipates continued export growth and moderate import recovery, sustaining a small surplus through 2026. Bullish scenario (20%) envisions stronger commodity prices and remittance inflows pushing the surplus above 500 million UZS. Bearish scenario (20%) risks include renewed geopolitical tensions or a sharp global slowdown, which could revert the account to deficits near -300 million UZS.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Uzbekistan’s gradual economic diversification and infrastructure investments underpin a more balanced trade profile. Long-term reforms in customs and trade facilitation are expected to enhance export competitiveness. However, reliance on commodity exports remains a vulnerability.
Financial Markets & Sentiment
Improved current account dynamics have bolstered foreign investor confidence, reflected in rising portfolio inflows and stable sovereign bond spreads. The central bank’s cautious communication aims to balance growth with external stability.
Uzbekistan’s current account surplus marks a pivotal shift after a year of persistent deficits. This improvement reflects effective policy coordination, external demand resilience, and structural reforms. While upside risks include stronger commodity prices and remittance growth, downside risks from global uncertainties remain. Policymakers should maintain vigilance to sustain external balance gains and support macroeconomic stability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account
The current account’s swing to surplus is likely to influence several key markets. The USDUZS currency pair will remain sensitive to external balance shifts, affecting exchange rate volatility. The UZBE stock index historically tracks external sector health, with surpluses boosting investor confidence. The UZTUSDT crypto pair may see muted but correlated moves. Additionally, the ALMT and EURUZS pairs are also relevant due to trade and investment linkages.
Insight Box: Current Account vs. USDUZS Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Uzbekistan’s current account balance and the USDUZS exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of deficit coincide with UZS depreciation, while surpluses align with currency appreciation. The recent surplus of 265.30 million UZS correlates with a 0.80% UZS appreciation, underscoring the external balance’s role in exchange rate dynamics.
FAQs
- What is the significance of Uzbekistan’s current account surplus?
- The surplus indicates improved external balance, reducing currency pressure and supporting macroeconomic stability.
- How does the current account affect Uzbekistan’s monetary policy?
- A stronger current account allows the central bank to consider easing monetary tightening without risking currency depreciation.
- What are the main risks to Uzbekistan’s current account outlook?
- Risks include global commodity price shocks, geopolitical tensions, and slower remittance inflows.
Key takeaway: Uzbekistan’s current account surplus signals a turning point, enhancing external resilience amid cautious optimism for sustained macro stability.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
USDUZS – Forex pair sensitive to Uzbekistan’s external balance and currency fluctuations.
UZBE – Uzbek stock index reflecting investor sentiment linked to current account health.
UZTUSDT – Crypto pair with moderate correlation to macroeconomic shifts.
ALMT – Stock ticker influenced by trade and investment flows.
EURUZS – Forex pair affected by trade relations with the Eurozone.
The current account balance improved dramatically from -421.60 million UZS last quarter to a surplus of 265.30 million UZS this quarter, well above the 12-month average deficit of -1246.20 million UZS. This reversal is the largest quarterly improvement in over a year.
Exports rose by 12% quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher commodity prices and increased textile shipments. Imports contracted by 7%, reflecting tighter credit and cautious consumer spending.