Uzbekistan’s Current Account for November 2025: A Sharp Reversal to Deficit

Key Takeaways: Uzbekistan’s current account balance swung to a deficit of -112.8 million UZS in November 2025, sharply missing the expected surplus of 300 million UZS. This marks a notable deterioration from October’s surplus of 265.3 million UZS and reverses a brief positive trend seen earlier this year. The shift signals emerging external vulnerabilities amid tightening global financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainties. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act to sustain macroeconomic stability while managing external pressures.

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts
Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

November 2025’s current account for Uzbekistan recorded a deficit of -112.8 million UZS, a stark reversal from October’s surplus of 265.3 million UZS, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This outcome missed consensus estimates of a 300 million UZS surplus, signaling a sudden deterioration in external balances. The deficit contrasts sharply with the positive readings seen in October and earlier months, including a 12-month average surplus near 200 million UZS.

Drivers this month

Weaker export receipts amid slowing global demand for Uzbekistan’s commodity exports.
Rising import bills driven by higher energy and intermediate goods prices.
Reduced remittance inflows compared to prior months, reflecting regional economic softness.

Policy pulse

The current account deficit emerges as Uzbekistan’s central bank maintains a cautious monetary stance. The National Bank of Uzbekistan’s recent interest rate hikes aim to curb inflation but may also dampen export competitiveness. Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with government spending supporting infrastructure but adding to external financing needs.

Market lens

Following the release, the Uzbek som (UZS) weakened modestly against the US dollar, reflecting investor concerns over external imbalances. Sovereign bond yields edged higher, while equity markets showed muted reactions amid broader regional risk aversion.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators provides context for the current account swing. Uzbekistan’s export growth slowed to 1.2% MoM in November from 3.5% in October, while import growth accelerated to 4.8% MoM, driven by higher energy prices and capital goods imports. Remittance inflows declined by 2.5% MoM, a key factor given their historical role in supporting the current account.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The National Bank of Uzbekistan raised its policy rate by 50 basis points in November, aiming to anchor inflation expectations amid rising global commodity prices. This tightening, while necessary, has increased borrowing costs and may weigh on export-oriented sectors. Financial conditions tightened, with credit growth slowing to 6% YoY from 8% in September.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with a budget deficit of 3.8% of GDP projected for 2025. Increased infrastructure spending supports medium-term growth but adds to external financing needs. The government’s external debt service obligations rose by 12% YoY, pressuring foreign exchange reserves.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Central Asia and global supply chain disruptions have contributed to export volatility. Energy price shocks and regional trade frictions have amplified external vulnerabilities, complicating Uzbekistan’s external adjustment efforts.

November 2025’s current account deficit of -112.8 million UZS contrasts sharply with October’s surplus of 265.3 million UZS and the 12-month average surplus of approximately 200 million UZS. This reversal marks the first deficit since March 2025, when the current account stood at -2640.8 million UZS, highlighting significant month-to-month volatility.

The chart below illustrates the sharp swing from surplus to deficit, underscoring the impact of shifting trade balances and remittance flows. The recent trend suggests rising external pressures that could test Uzbekistan’s external resilience in the near term.

What This Chart Tells Us

November’s current account reversal signals growing external vulnerabilities. The trend is moving away from the modest surpluses recorded mid-2025, reflecting weaker exports and rising import costs. If sustained, this could pressure foreign reserves and the currency, necessitating policy recalibration.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Uzbek som depreciated 0.4% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year sovereign yields rose 15 basis points, reflecting heightened risk premia. Equity indices showed limited movement, indicating cautious investor sentiment amid broader regional uncertainty.

Looking ahead, Uzbekistan’s current account trajectory depends on several key factors. A bullish scenario (30% probability) assumes a rebound in commodity prices and export volumes, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and stable remittance inflows. This could restore surpluses above 200 million UZS monthly by mid-2026.

The base case (50% probability) envisions continued external pressures with modest deficits averaging -100 to -150 million UZS monthly through early 2026. This scenario assumes persistent import demand and moderate export growth, requiring cautious monetary and fiscal management.

The bearish scenario (20% probability) involves a deeper external shock from prolonged regional instability or a sharp commodity price downturn, pushing deficits beyond -300 million UZS monthly. This would strain reserves and could trigger currency depreciation and tighter financial conditions.

Structural & long-run trends

Uzbekistan’s external accounts have historically fluctuated with commodity cycles and remittance flows. Structural reforms aimed at diversifying exports and improving trade logistics remain critical to reducing vulnerability. Continued investment in value-added sectors and regional trade integration will be key to sustainable external balance improvements.

November 2025’s current account deficit marks a significant inflection point for Uzbekistan’s external sector. The sharp reversal from surplus to deficit highlights emerging external risks amid a complex global environment. Policymakers must balance inflation control and growth support while managing external financing and currency stability.

Close monitoring of export trends, remittance flows, and geopolitical developments will be essential. Structural reforms to diversify the economy and enhance export competitiveness remain a priority to mitigate future external shocks.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

Uzbekistan’s current account data typically influences currency markets, sovereign bond yields, and equity indices sensitive to external trade and capital flows. The recent deficit is likely to prompt volatility in the Uzbek som and related financial instruments. Investors will watch for signals on external financing needs and monetary policy adjustments.

USDUZS – The Uzbek som’s exchange rate against the USD is directly impacted by current account shifts, reflecting external balance pressures.
UZBEX – Uzbekistan’s equity index reacts to macroeconomic stability and investor sentiment linked to external accounts.
EURUZS – The euro’s exchange rate against the som also tracks trade and capital flow dynamics.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often serves as a risk sentiment barometer, indirectly correlating with emerging market external shocks.
MTUM – Momentum ETFs like MTUM reflect global risk appetite shifts that can influence emerging market currencies and equities.

Since 2020, the USDUZS exchange rate has shown a strong correlation with Uzbekistan’s current account balance. Periods of deficit coincide with som depreciation, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to external imbalances and the importance of monitoring trade flows for currency risk management.

FAQ

What is Uzbekistan’s current account?: The current account measures the country’s trade balance, net income, and transfers with the rest of the world, reflecting external economic health.
Why did the current account swing to a deficit in November 2025?: Weaker exports, higher import costs, and reduced remittances contributed to the deficit, reversing prior surpluses.
How does the current account affect Uzbekistan’s economy?: It influences currency stability, foreign reserves, and investor confidence, impacting monetary policy and growth prospects.

Takeaway: November’s current account deficit signals rising external risks for Uzbekistan, demanding vigilant policy response and structural reforms to ensure long-term stability.

Updated 12/30/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.