Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed to VND -1.04B in February from VND -1.78B in January, signaling a partial recovery after three straight negative prints. The 12-month trend remains volatile, with the latest figure still below the mid-2025 surplus highs.
Vietnam Balance of Trade Narrows in February: Deficit Shrinks to VND -1.04B
Vietnam’s balance of trade deficit contracted in February 2026, offering a mixed signal for the country’s export-driven economy. The latest data, released March 6, shows a smaller gap compared to January’s reading, though the trend remains negative after a string of surpluses in mid-2025.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Electronics exports: -0.22pp
- Textile shipments: -0.11pp
- Machinery imports: +0.19pp
Policy pulse
Vietnam’s central bank does not set a formal trade balance target, but the February deficit of VND -1.04B remains a concern for policymakers focused on currency stability.Market lens
Currency markets responded with mild VND weakness after the print. Investors weighed the narrowing deficit against persistent headwinds in key export sectors, with the dong showing limited volatility.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February’s deficit of VND -1.04B marks an improvement from January’s VND -1.78B shortfall. The 12-month average stands at VND 1.08B, reflecting a sharp reversal from the surpluses seen in August (VND 2.27B) and September 2025 (VND 3.72B). December 2025 posted a surplus of VND 1.09B, while November’s figure was VND 2.6B.MoM and YoY
The month-over-month gap narrowed by VND 0.74B. Year-over-year, February’s deficit contrasts with the VND 0.56B surplus recorded in February 2025.Methodology
Data is sourced from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam and cross-verified with Sigmanomics[1]. Figures are reported in billions of Vietnamese dong, not seasonally adjusted.Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: Vietnam’s trade balance has swung from strong surpluses in mid-2025 to persistent deficits in early 2026. The February reading, while less negative than January, signals ongoing strain in export sectors. The trend suggests that external demand and import costs will remain key variables for the trade outlook.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25%): Export recovery in electronics and textiles drives a return to surplus by Q2 2026.
- Base (55%): Deficits persist but narrow, with monthly gaps between VND -0.5B and VND -1.5B through mid-year.
- Bearish (20%): Further global demand weakness pushes the deficit below VND -2B in coming months.
Risks
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected US and EU demand. Downside risks stem from rising input costs and potential supply chain disruptions.Data caveats
All figures reflect official customs data and may be revised as more shipments are processed.Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Vietnamese equities showed muted reaction, with exporters underperforming the broader index. The narrowing deficit offered some relief, but investors remain cautious amid ongoing trade headwinds.Key takeaway
February’s smaller deficit signals stabilization, but the trade balance remains under pressure from global and domestic factors.Key Markets Reacting to Balance of Trade
Vietnam’s trade data influences regional equities, currency pairs, and global supply chain proxies. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to shifts in Vietnam’s trade balance, reflecting both direct and indirect exposure to export and import trends.
- AAPL: Apple’s supply chain relies on Vietnamese manufacturing; trade deficits can signal input cost pressures.
- USDJPY: Yen often reacts to Asian trade flows, with Vietnam’s data impacting regional sentiment.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s volatility can spike on emerging market trade shocks, including Vietnam’s.
| Year | VN Balance of Trade (B VND) | AAPL (YoY % Chg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 19.86 | +80.75 |
| 2021 | 4.08 | +34.00 |
| 2022 | 11.20 | -26.80 |
| 2023 | 28.30 | +48.16 |
| 2024 | 28.40 | +49.03 |
| 2025 | 13.09 | +48.50 |
Since 2020, Vietnam’s trade balance and AAPL’s annual returns have shown periods of positive correlation, especially during years of strong export growth.
FAQ: Vietnam Balance of Trade Narrows in February: Deficit Shrinks to VND -1.04B
- What does Vietnam’s latest balance of trade figure mean for the economy?
- The February deficit of VND -1.04B signals a partial recovery from January’s deeper gap, but ongoing deficits highlight export sector challenges.
- How does the narrowing deficit compare to recent months?
- February’s figure improved from January’s VND -1.78B deficit, but remains below the surpluses seen in late 2025.
- Why is the balance of trade important for Vietnam?
- As an export-driven economy, Vietnam’s trade balance directly affects currency stability, manufacturing, and investor sentiment.
Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed in February, but the trend remains fragile amid shifting global demand.
Updated 3/6/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics Economic Database, Vietnam Balance of Trade, accessed March 6, 2026.
The chart shows a pronounced decline from September’s peak surplus of VND 3.72B to the current deficit. This reversal underscores the impact of weaker global demand and rising import costs, especially in electronics and textiles.