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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
VietnamVietnam Balance of Trade fell to -3.59B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Vietnam Balance of Trade fell to -3.59B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.95B from June's -2.64B reading. The reading missed the -1.8B consensus by 1.79B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.04B. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3.59
Actual
-1.8
Consensus
-2.64
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.94 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -2.71
Actual: -3.59
Error: +0.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Vietnam) was reported at -1.13 million in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.59 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.76 billion, ranging from -5.21 billion to 2.85 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3.31 billion, down from the prior three at -1.16 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.51 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.38 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 2.37 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.94 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 3, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - VN
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About Balance of Trade — Vietnam
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1.13 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -3.59 B. Before that (May 2026): -5.21 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.86) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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