Vietnam’s trade surplus of 2.60 billion VND in November 2025 marks a modest contraction from October’s 2.85 billion VND but remains robust relative to the six-month average of 1.90 billion VND. This reflects sustained export strength amid global demand uncertainties and evolving supply chain dynamics. The surplus supports Vietnam’s external stability and provides a buffer against external shocks, though the slight dip signals caution amid rising geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility.

Drivers this month

• Export growth in electronics and textiles remained strong, contributing approximately 1.80 billion VND to the surplus.
• Imports of intermediate goods rose by 5%, reflecting supply chain restocking ahead of Lunar New Year.
• Commodity price fluctuations, especially in crude oil and agricultural products, slightly compressed trade gains.

Policy pulse

The trade surplus aligns with the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) cautious monetary stance, balancing inflation control with growth support. The surplus provides room for stable currency management, helping the VND resist depreciation pressures despite global dollar strength.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The VND appreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting market confidence in Vietnam’s external position. Short-term bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.

Vietnam’s trade surplus of 2.60 billion VND in November 2025 contrasts with the previous month’s 2.85 billion VND and significantly outperforms the 12-month average of 1.70 billion VND recorded over the prior year. This sustained surplus supports key macro indicators, including GDP growth, inflation, and currency stability.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The SBV’s policy rate remains steady at 5.25%, reflecting a calibrated approach to inflation and growth. The trade surplus bolsters foreign exchange reserves, which stood at $110 billion as of October 2025, up 4% year-over-year. This reserve accumulation underpins the VND’s managed float regime and mitigates external volatility.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Vietnam’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.20% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by strong export revenues and customs duties. The trade surplus contributes positively to government revenue streams, enabling continued infrastructure investment without exacerbating debt levels.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened tensions in the South China Sea and global supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. However, Vietnam’s diversified export base and trade agreements, including CPTPP and RCEP, provide resilience against shocks.

Drivers this month

• Electronics exports grew 7% MoM, sustaining trade inflows.
• Textile exports slowed to 3% growth, impacted by global demand softness.
• Import costs rose 4%, driven by higher energy prices.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The VND strengthened modestly post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined slightly, reflecting improved investor sentiment toward Vietnam’s external balance.

Looking ahead, Vietnam’s trade surplus trajectory depends on global demand, commodity prices, and geopolitical developments. Three scenarios emerge:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global demand rebounds sharply in Q1 2026, boosting exports by 10% YoY.
• Commodity prices stabilize, reducing import costs.
• Trade surplus expands to 3.50 billion VND by March 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate export growth of 5% YoY amid steady global conditions.
• Import costs rise modestly due to inflationary pressures.
• Trade surplus remains near 2.50–2.80 billion VND through Q1 2026.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains and reduce demand.
• Commodity price spikes increase import bills sharply.
• Trade surplus contracts below 2 billion VND, pressuring currency and reserves.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Vietnam’s long-term trade outlook benefits from ongoing industrial upgrading, expanding free trade agreements, and rising foreign direct investment. However, structural challenges such as infrastructure bottlenecks and rising labor costs require policy attention to sustain competitiveness.

Vietnam’s November 2025 trade surplus of 2.60 billion VND confirms the country’s resilient external position amid global uncertainties. While the slight month-on-month dip signals caution, the surplus remains well above historical averages, supporting macroeconomic stability. Policymakers should leverage this strength to manage inflation, support fiscal consolidation, and mitigate external risks. Market participants will watch upcoming trade data closely for signs of sustained momentum or emerging headwinds.

Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade

Vietnam’s balance of trade data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to external trade flows and economic growth. The following five tradable symbols historically correlate with Vietnam’s trade dynamics and provide useful market signals:

• VNM – Vietnam’s leading consumer goods stock, sensitive to domestic economic health and export-driven growth.
• USDCNY – The Chinese yuan’s exchange rate impacts Vietnam’s trade competitiveness given China’s role as a key trading partner.
• USDCNH – Offshore yuan movements influence regional trade flows and investor sentiment.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects global risk appetite, indirectly affecting emerging market currencies like the VND.
• FPT – A major Vietnamese tech stock, its performance is linked to export sector health and foreign investment trends.

Indicator vs. VNM Stock Price Since 2020

Since 2020, Vietnam’s trade surplus and the VNM stock price have shown a positive correlation, with periods of rising trade surpluses coinciding with VNM’s upward price trends. For example, the surge in trade surplus in late 2023 aligned with a 15% rally in VNM shares, reflecting investor confidence in export-driven growth. This relationship underscores the importance of external trade health for Vietnam’s equity market performance.

FAQs

What is the current state of Vietnam’s balance of trade?

The latest data shows a trade surplus of 2.60 billion VND in November 2025, slightly below October but above the yearly average.

How does the balance of trade affect Vietnam’s economy?

A sustained trade surplus supports currency stability, foreign reserves, and fiscal revenues, underpinning macroeconomic stability.

What risks could impact Vietnam’s trade surplus going forward?

Geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and global demand shocks pose downside risks to the trade balance.

Takeaway: Vietnam’s trade surplus remains a pillar of economic resilience, but vigilance is needed to navigate external uncertainties and sustain growth momentum.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.