Vietnam Industrial Production YoY: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Vietnam’s Industrial Production YoY growth moderated to 10.80% in November 2025, below expectations but still robust. This marks a slowdown from October’s 13.60% surge, reflecting cooling external demand and cautious domestic investment. Monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions weigh on near-term momentum. However, structural reforms and export diversification support a positive medium-term outlook. Key risks include global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures.
Table of Contents
Vietnam’s industrial sector remains a key engine of growth, with the latest Industrial Production YoY reading at 10.80% for November 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure, while below the 13.60% recorded in October and the 12.70% of the previous month, still signals strong expansion relative to historical averages. Over the past year, industrial output has averaged roughly 9.50%, underscoring a generally resilient manufacturing base amid global uncertainties.
Drivers this month
- Export-oriented manufacturing slowed due to weaker demand from key partners, notably China and the EU.
- Domestic infrastructure projects maintained steady output, cushioning the overall decline.
- Energy-intensive sectors faced higher input costs, limiting production gains.
Policy pulse
The State Bank of Vietnam’s recent monetary tightening, aimed at curbing inflation, has started to temper industrial credit growth. Interest rates rose by 25 basis points in October, tightening financial conditions and slowing investment in capital goods.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The VND/USD exchange rate appreciated slightly by 0.30% post-release, reflecting investor confidence in Vietnam’s growth resilience despite the slowdown. The VN30 index dipped 0.50% in early trading, signaling cautious sentiment among equity investors.
Industrial Production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting manufacturing, mining, and utilities output. Vietnam’s 10.80% YoY growth in November 2025 contrasts with a low of 0.60% in February 2025 and a peak of 17.20% in March 2025, illustrating significant volatility amid shifting global conditions.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The tightening cycle by the State Bank of Vietnam aims to anchor inflation expectations, which currently hover around 4.50%, slightly above the 4% target. Higher borrowing costs have dampened industrial credit growth from 15% YoY in mid-2025 to 9% in November, constraining expansion in capital-intensive sectors.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Government spending on infrastructure and industrial parks remains robust, supporting industrial activity. The 2025 budget allocates 7.20% of GDP to capital expenditure, up from 6.80% in 2024, signaling continued fiscal support despite tighter monetary conditions.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Vietnam’s industrial sector faces headwinds from ongoing US-China trade tensions and supply chain realignments. Recent tariffs and export restrictions have disrupted component imports, particularly in electronics manufacturing, which accounts for over 40% of industrial output.
Drivers this month
- Electronics manufacturing growth slowed to 9.20% YoY from 14.50% in October.
- Textile and garment sectors stabilized at 8.50% growth, supported by domestic consumption.
- Mining output contracted slightly by 1.20%, reflecting commodity price softness.
This chart highlights a trending moderation in Vietnam’s industrial output growth, reversing the two-month acceleration seen in August-October. The sector remains on a growth trajectory but faces headwinds from tighter credit and global demand uncertainties.
Policy pulse
Industrial production growth remains above the inflation target range, suggesting room for gradual monetary tightening. However, policymakers must balance growth risks amid slowing external demand.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The VN30 index fell 0.50% within the first hour, reflecting investor caution. The VND appreciated modestly, supported by stable foreign exchange reserves and trade surplus data released earlier in the week.
Looking ahead, Vietnam’s industrial production growth faces a mixed outlook shaped by domestic policies and external conditions. The base case scenario forecasts a steady 8-10% YoY growth in 2026, supported by ongoing infrastructure investment and export diversification.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Global demand rebounds sharply, especially from the US and EU.
- Monetary policy eases as inflation stabilizes below 4%.
- Successful supply chain realignment boosts electronics exports.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate global growth with some trade frictions persisting.
- Monetary tightening continues cautiously to contain inflation.
- Domestic investment remains steady, supporting industrial output.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Prolonged geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains.
- Inflation spikes force aggressive monetary tightening.
- Domestic demand weakens due to fiscal consolidation.
Risks to the outlook include commodity price volatility, potential US-China trade escalations, and domestic credit tightening. Structural reforms aimed at improving productivity and innovation will be critical to sustaining long-run growth.
Vietnam’s November 2025 Industrial Production YoY growth of 10.80% confirms the country’s resilient manufacturing sector amid global uncertainties. While the slowdown from October’s peak signals emerging headwinds, the industrial base remains robust compared to historical norms. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with growth support, especially as external risks persist. Structural reforms and fiscal support will be key to maintaining momentum in the medium term.
Investors should monitor credit conditions, export trends, and geopolitical developments closely. The industrial sector’s performance will remain a bellwether for Vietnam’s broader economic trajectory in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Vietnam’s Industrial Production YoY data significantly influences equity, currency, and commodity markets. Key tradable symbols historically correlated with this indicator include the VN30 equity index, USDVND forex pair, and regional manufacturing-linked stocks. These markets respond swiftly to shifts in industrial output, reflecting changes in growth expectations and risk sentiment.
- VN30: Vietnam’s benchmark stock index, highly sensitive to industrial sector performance.
- USDVND: The USD/VND exchange rate reacts to trade and capital flow shifts driven by industrial output.
- HPG: Hoa Phat Group, a leading steel producer, closely tracks industrial demand cycles.
- BTCUSDT: Bitcoin’s price often reflects broader risk appetite influenced by emerging market growth data.
- EURUSD: Euro-dollar pair, sensitive to global trade dynamics impacting Vietnam’s export markets.
Insight: Industrial Production vs. VN30 Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Vietnam’s Industrial Production YoY growth and the VN30 index have shown a strong positive correlation (r ≈ 0.72). Periods of industrial acceleration, such as post-pandemic rebounds in 2021 and early 2025, coincide with VN30 rallies. Conversely, industrial slowdowns have led to equity market corrections. This relationship underscores the importance of industrial output as a leading indicator for Vietnam’s equity market performance.
FAQs
- What is the significance of Vietnam’s Industrial Production YoY data?
- The Industrial Production YoY data measures growth in manufacturing, mining, and utilities, serving as a key indicator of economic health and industrial sector performance.
- How does the latest Industrial Production YoY reading compare historically?
- The 10.80% growth in November 2025 is below October’s 13.60% but above the 2024 average of 7.30%, indicating sustained but moderating industrial expansion.
- What factors influence Vietnam’s Industrial Production trends?
- Key factors include global demand, monetary policy, fiscal spending, supply chain dynamics, and geopolitical risks affecting exports and input costs.
Takeaway: Vietnam’s industrial sector remains a growth pillar despite recent moderation. Balancing inflation control with growth support will be critical to sustaining momentum into 2026.
VN30 – Vietnam’s benchmark stock index, closely tied to industrial sector performance.
USDVND – The USD/VND exchange rate, sensitive to trade flows and industrial output.
HPG – Hoa Phat Group, a major steel producer linked to industrial demand cycles.
BTCUSDT – Bitcoin, reflecting broader risk sentiment influenced by emerging market growth.
EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair, impacted by global trade dynamics affecting Vietnam’s exports.
The November 2025 Industrial Production YoY growth of 10.80% marks a decline from October’s 13.60% and the 12-month average of 9.50%. This slowdown reflects a moderation after a strong rebound earlier in the year, with March’s peak at 17.20% driven by post-pandemic recovery and export demand.
Compared to the previous month’s 12.70%, the 10.80% reading signals cooling momentum but remains well above the 2024 average of 7.30%, indicating sustained industrial strength despite external pressures.