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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
VietnamVietnam Retail Sales YoY fell to 14.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Vietnam Retail Sales YoY fell to 14.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.3% from June's 14.8% reading. The reading matched the 14.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.03%. Retail Sales YoY is now the highest in 33 months.
Latest Release
14.5
Actual
14.2
Consensus
14.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 13.6
Actual: 14.5
Error: -0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.84 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Vietnam) was reported at 14.9% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 14.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.58%, ranging from 7.1% to 14.9% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 13.73%, up from the prior three at 8.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.86%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.19%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 11.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 3, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - VN
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About Retail Sales YoY — Vietnam
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 14.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 14.5 %. Before that (May 2026): 11.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.84) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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