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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Building Permits held to -14.3% in December 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
South Africa Building Permits held to -14.3% in December 2025, released February 2026. The reading missed the -8.0% consensus by 6.3%. Building Permits has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Building Permits is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-14.3
Actual
-8
Consensus
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.96 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: -12.25
Actual: -14.3
Error: +2.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Building Permits (South Africa) was reported at -14.3% in February 2026. This missed the market consensus of -8% by 6.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6.91%, ranging from -20.8% to 13.2% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.97%, up from the prior three at -8.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.96%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Building Permits - ZA
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About Building Permits — South Africa
DEFINITION
Building Permits is a key financial indicator that measures the number of permits issued by local governments for new construction projects. This indicator provides valuable insight into the health of the construction industry and the overall state of the economy. A high number of building permits indicates a strong demand for new construction, which can stimulate economic growth and job creation. On the other hand, a decline in building permits may signal a slowdown in the construction sector and a potential economic downturn. As such, Building Permits is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as a reliable gauge of economic activity and future market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2025): actual -14.3 %, consensus -8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -6.9 %. Before that (Sep 2025): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.