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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa CPI fell to 3.5% in November 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2025
South Africa CPI fell to 3.5% in November 2025, released December 2025, down 0.1% from October's 3.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.67%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 0.2%, vs 2.2% in the prior 3-month window. CPI is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.6
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (South Africa) was reported at 3% in March 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.85 Percent, ranging from 0.10 Percent to 4.10 Percent across 16 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.60 Percent, down from the prior three at 3.33 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.66 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.38 Percent). In August readings over the past 3 years, South Africa CPI has averaged 2.90 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI - ZA
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About CPI — South Africa
DEFINITION
South Africa CPI rose 0.500000 percent in August, down from July's 0.600000 percent, indicating a slight deceleration in inflation. July's 0.600000 percent followed June's 0.200000 percent, showing volatility in recent months. The moderation in August's CPI may influence the South African Reserve Bank's policy stance amid mixed inflation signals. Updated 8/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bearish USD, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |