Gdp Growth Rate Yoy - ZA Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.1
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.9
Previous
South Africa’s GDP Growth Rate YoY for December 2025 surprised markets by surging to 2.10%, well above the 0.40% estimate and previous 0.90% reading. This 1.20 percentage point increase signals a strong economic expansion, the fastest since September 2023’s 1.60%, driven by improved commodity exports and domestic demand. Looking ahead, sustained growth depends on continued policy support amid inflation pressures and external risks, with markets reacting positively to the robust data. Updated 12/2/25
Gdp Growth Rate Yoy - ZA
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Listen to: South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY
South Africa’s GDP Growth Rate YoY Surges to 2.10% in December 2025: A Macro Outlook
South Africa’s GDP growth rate accelerated sharply to 2.10% YoY in December 2025, well above the 0.40% estimate and previous 0.90%. This rebound marks the strongest expansion since September 2023’s 1.60%. Key drivers include improved commodity exports and domestic demand recovery. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative amid inflation pressures. Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, but external risks from global trade tensions and currency volatility persist. Financial markets reacted positively, with the ZAR strengthening and bond yields stabilizing. Structural reforms and energy sector improvements underpin long-term growth prospects.
South Africa’s latest GDP growth rate YoY for December 2025, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, posted a robust 2.10%, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.40% and the prior 0.90% reading. This marks a notable acceleration compared to the subdued growth of 0.30% recorded in December 2024 and the 0.60% in September 2025. The rebound reflects a combination of stronger commodity exports, easing energy constraints, and a pickup in consumer spending.
Drivers this month
Commodity exports contributed approximately 0.80 percentage points (pp) to growth, buoyed by higher global demand for platinum and gold.
Domestic consumption rose by 0.70 pp, supported by improved labor market conditions and wage growth.
Investment activity added 0.40 pp, reflecting renewed confidence in infrastructure projects and mining sector expansion.
Net exports contributed 0.20 pp, reversing previous drag from trade deficits.
Policy pulse
The 2.10% growth rate sits comfortably above the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 3-6%, suggesting the economy is expanding without overheating. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, with the repo rate steady at 7%, balancing growth support and inflation control.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ZAR/USD strengthened by 0.50% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields fell 10 basis points, signaling improved investor confidence.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the GDP growth reveal a mixed but improving landscape. Inflation remains elevated at 5.80% YoY as of November 2025, slightly below the 6.10% peak earlier in the year. Unemployment, however, remains stubbornly high at 32.50%, limiting broader consumption gains. The current account deficit narrowed to 2.30% of GDP, aided by stronger export performance and subdued import demand.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The South African Reserve Bank’s steady policy stance has helped stabilize inflation expectations. Credit growth accelerated modestly to 6.20% YoY, supporting consumer and business spending. The banking sector remains well-capitalized, though non-performing loans in certain sectors pose risks.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation continues, with the government targeting a budget deficit of 4.50% of GDP in 2025/26, down from 5.20% the prior year. Public debt stands at 72% of GDP, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. However, increased tax revenues from mining and corporate sectors provide some fiscal space.
The December 2025 GDP growth rate of 2.10% YoY represents a sharp rebound from the 0.60% recorded in September 2025 and well above the 12-month average of 0.80%. This marks the strongest expansion since the 1.60% growth in September 2023, signaling a reversal of the sluggish trend observed throughout 2024 and early 2025.
Quarterly data show a steady climb in output across mining, manufacturing, and services sectors. The mining sector alone grew by 4.50% YoY, driven by higher commodity prices and improved operational efficiency. Meanwhile, the services sector expanded by 1.80%, reflecting stronger retail and financial services activity.
This chart highlights a clear upward trajectory in South Africa’s GDP growth rate, reversing a two-year period of stagnation and contraction. The acceleration suggests improving economic fundamentals and a potential inflection point for sustained recovery, contingent on stable policy and external conditions.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The South African rand (ZAR) appreciated against the US dollar, while the FTSE/JSE All Share Index (J203) gained 1.20%, reflecting investor optimism about growth prospects.
Looking ahead, South Africa’s growth trajectory faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects GDP growth averaging 1.80% YoY over the next four quarters, supported by ongoing commodity demand and gradual improvements in domestic consumption. The Reserve Bank’s inflation targeting and fiscal prudence should help maintain macro stability.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
Global commodity prices surge, boosting export revenues and investment.
Structural reforms accelerate, improving business climate and labor market flexibility.
Energy supply constraints ease significantly, reducing production bottlenecks.
GDP growth exceeds 3% YoY by mid-2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Moderate global growth sustains commodity demand.
Fiscal consolidation continues without major shocks.
GDP growth stabilizes around 1.50-2.00% YoY.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
Global trade tensions escalate, reducing export demand.
Domestic political uncertainty delays reforms.
Energy shortages persist, constraining industrial output.
GDP growth falls below 1% YoY.
South Africa’s December 2025 GDP growth rate of 2.10% YoY signals a meaningful recovery after years of subdued expansion. While the rebound is encouraging, sustained growth will depend on managing inflation, advancing structural reforms, and mitigating external risks. The government’s fiscal discipline and the central bank’s balanced monetary stance provide a solid foundation. However, challenges such as high unemployment and energy supply constraints remain critical. Investors and policymakers should monitor global commodity markets and geopolitical developments closely, as these will heavily influence South Africa’s growth path.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
South Africa’s GDP growth rate is a key indicator for multiple asset classes. Equity markets, currency pairs, and commodity-linked instruments often respond swiftly to changes in growth expectations. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with South African economic performance:
J203 – The FTSE/JSE All Share Index, reflecting broad equity market sentiment tied to economic growth.
ZARUSD – The South African rand against the US dollar, sensitive to growth and trade dynamics.
ANG – Anglo American plc, a major mining company whose earnings depend on commodity demand.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-on asset that can reflect emerging market sentiment shifts.
EURZAR – Euro to South African rand, a key currency pair for trade and investment flows.
GDP Growth Rate vs. J203 Index Since 2020
Since 2020, South Africa’s GDP growth rate and the J203 index have shown a positive correlation, with the equity market often leading growth expectations. Periods of GDP contraction, such as in late 2023, coincided with market dips, while rebounds in GDP growth have typically preceded rallies in the J203. This relationship underscores the index’s sensitivity to macroeconomic fundamentals and investor sentiment.
FAQs
What does South Africa’s GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate?
The GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual percentage change in the country’s economic output, reflecting overall economic health and momentum.
How does the latest GDP growth compare historically?
The 2.10% growth in December 2025 is the strongest since September 2023’s 1.60%, reversing a period of sluggish growth below 1% in 2024 and early 2025.
What factors influence South Africa’s GDP growth?
Key drivers include commodity exports, domestic consumption, investment levels, monetary and fiscal policies, and external shocks such as global trade conditions.
Takeaway: South Africa’s economy is showing signs of a durable recovery, but sustaining this momentum requires continued policy support and mitigation of structural challenges.
Updated 12/2/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
J203 – South Africa’s broad equity market index, sensitive to GDP growth shifts.
ZARUSD – Currency pair reflecting South Africa’s trade and capital flow dynamics.
ANG – Anglo American plc, a major mining stock linked to commodity-driven growth.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, a risk asset often influenced by emerging market sentiment.
EURZAR – Euro to South African rand, key for trade and investment flows.
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
1.7
1
1.73
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
110.2
111.5
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
111.5
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Friday, October 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
-
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.6
1.6
-1.7
-1.30
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-1.2
1.6
1.3
0.33
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.6
-3.5
-1.7
-1.20
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.3
-1
1.8
0.68
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.9
-0.8
-0.3
0.12
Low
Monday, October 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.63
63.21
63.5
63.69
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
51
50.5
50.7
50.68
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.08
43.68
44
44.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.8
43.6
51
50.80
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
5.63
17.07
15.5
15.16
Medium
11:20
ZA
Budget Balance
-19.4
-79.95
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.95
3.5
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
2.8
4.2
4
3.73
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.28
Low
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8
8.25
8
8.00
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.5
11.75
11.5
11.50
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
5.5
-31.8
6
0.85
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2
4.1
3.5
4.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
1.6
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.23
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.42
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-5
-10
-10
-8.17
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-1.4
-3.6
1.1
-0.02
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.5
-12.6
-10
-9.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.9
-1.7
-0.8
-0.38
Low
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
4.8
5
4.8
4.63
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
-0.4
-1
-0.60
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.7
-5.5
0.7
-0.27
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.21
62.27
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-64.6
-106.9
-150
-150.45
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
38
35
37
38.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.5
49.3
50.5
50.48
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
0.5
1.6
1.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
0
0.4
0.33
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
43.59
44.23
45
45.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
52.4
53
52.80
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
17.61
24.19
18
17.66
Medium
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-79.95
38.55
-150
-129.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.5
4.27
4.4
4.45
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.2
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.02
Low
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
5.1
5
4.92
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-31.8
-15.3
-20
-25.15
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.07
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
4.1
1.1
0.4
1.13
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109.1
109
110
109.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109
107.8
108.2
108.00
Low
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
33.5
32.9
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.384
8.226
8.3
8.35
Low
09:00
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.6
-9
-12
-11.50
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.5
1.3
-0.8
-1.92
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-1.6
0.1
-1
-0.58
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
-3.6
1.3
1.70
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-5.2
-1.2
-0.9
-1.87
Low
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.27
62.1
62.5
62.69
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.3
49.2
49.7
49.68
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.23
40.07
42
42.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.4
45.7
46
45.80
Low
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
24.23
19.96
16
15.66
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Budget Balance
38.55
-12.78
15
35.70
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.27
3.89
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.28
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.43
Low
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.2
5.1
5.02
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1
2.4
1.7
1.23
Low
Thursday, July 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.6
2.9
4
-1.15
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.7
-1.2
-0.47
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
0.5
-1
-0.83
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-0.6
4.9
3.2
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-3.2
5.2
2
2.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.6
0.8
-1
-0.58
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-9
-1.7
-1.4
-0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0
1.4
1.7
0.58
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5
5.3
5.5
5.33
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.1
62.09
62
62.19
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
50.4
50.2
50.18
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:05
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.07
37.11
47.3
47.45
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
45.7
43.8
49.5
49.30
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
20.09
9.68
15
14.66
Medium
11:00
ZA
Budget Balance
-12.78
-78.05
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.26
3.9
3.7
3.75
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
5.1
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.12
Low
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-12
-15
-18
-16.17
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
2.4
-1.1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
2.4
-7.8
-8.5
-13.65
Low
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.12
Medium
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
0.8
-4.4
1.7
2.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-1.7
-4.3
-3.9
-3.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.7
-4.8
0.9
-0.22
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
5.3
-6.5
-2
-2.97
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
5.2
-2.5
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
107.8
108.9
115
114.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
108.9
114.7
113.8
113.60
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.09
61.8
61.4
61.59
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-84.6
-162.9
-70
-70.45
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
35
30
27
28.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.4
50.3
49.8
49.78
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
1.4
0.6
0.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.03
Medium
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
37.11
38.06
40
40.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.8
54
51
50.80
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
10.47
9.16
3.5
3.16
Medium
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.75
6.85
6.5
6.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.9
5.18
5
5.05
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-78.05
2.07
-30
-9.30
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
1.1
0.2
0.12
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
5.1
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.9
4.9
4.83
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.8
1
1.00
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.22
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.48
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1.9
1.3
1.3
0.83
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-7.8
-8.1
-12
-17.15
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
-0.7
2.5
3.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1
1
1.17
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.9
32.1
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-5.8
10.3
-3
-4.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.5
-5
-8
-7.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.226
7.895
7.9
7.95
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-5
5.3
-1.8
-1.38
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-6.4
4
0.4
-0.57
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-2.2
-1
0.7
1.10
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.3
48.4
51
50.98
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:45
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
38.172
44.235
43
43.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
7.27
13.34
10
9.66
Medium
09:30
ZA
Budget Balance
2.07
20.78
-30
-9.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.18
3.32
4.8
4.85
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.85
5.71
5.5
5.57
Low
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
1.1
0.5
0.3
0.22
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.03
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
1.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.77
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-17.6
-13.5
-18
-23.15
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-3.2
1.2
1.37
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-2
-1.8
-1.07
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.6
5.4
5.32
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
5
4.7
4.63
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
1
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.1
2.9
3.5
2.53
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.3
0.4
0.4
0.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.6
-12.7
-14
-13.50
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
114.7
111.8
111.60
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
5
-0.4
1.2
1.62
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
112.3
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
9.9
-2.8
3.5
2.38
Low
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.32
61.65
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
48.4
50.8
50.3
50.28
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:20
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.237
44.749
48
48.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
49.2
51.7
51
50.80
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.04
-9.69
8.6
8.26
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.5
4.7
4.9
4.63
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.82
Low
09:00
ZA
Budget Balance
20.78
-54.66
-2.7
18.00
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.71
6.61
5.9
5.97
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.32
3.16
3.12
3.17
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.97
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-15
-17
-15
-13.17
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-2.1
3.2
1.5
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-3.2
1.3
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5
4.6
4.8
4.73
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0.3
1.1
1.08
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
1
0.1
0.9
0.90
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.42
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5.3
5.7
5.8
5.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.7
-16.1
-10
-15.15
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.6
1.3
0.7
-0.27
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-1.3
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.3
0.2
0.2
-0.92
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.8
-4.6
-1.3
-0.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.7
-3.6
2.5
3.00
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-165.5
-34.4
-92
-92.45
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.653
61.188
61
61.19
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
30
31
30
31.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.2
-0.7
0.9
0.72
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.23
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.8
49.2
48.8
48.78
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.749
41.636
42.5
42.65
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
51.7
43.6
43.2
43.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
-9.44
15.62
-5.2
-5.54
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.7
4
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.02
Low
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-54.66
19.47
-69.75
-49.05
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.16
4.94
4.34
4.39
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.58
7.65
7.05
7.12
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.32
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.1
31.9
31.6
31.98
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
7.895
7.849
8
8.05
Low
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-16.1
-26
8.5
3.35
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1.1
-0.8
-0.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
-1
-0.7
0.03
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.4
-2.9
2
2.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-4.2
2.7
-1.4
-0.98
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.6
6.9
4.9
3.78
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-1.7
1.2
0.5
0.90
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.7
2.5
2.5
1.53
Low
11:00
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
112.1
108.6
112
111.80
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.188
62.518
63
63.19
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
49
50
49.98
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.329
45.075
43
43.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
50.9
51.3
51.10
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.1
20.6
15
14.66
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:40
ZA
Budget Balance
19.47
-17.81
46
66.70
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
7.63
5.46
5.5
5.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.94
3.84
4.1
4.15
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4
4.6
4.3
4.03
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.6
-0.6
-0.3
-0.38
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.5
5.2
5.12
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.53
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
-0.87
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-26.6
-22.6
-25
-30.15
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
6.8
3.6
3
1.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3
2.2
1.8
2.30
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.1
2
1.4
1.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
-2.3
-0.9
-0.17
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-1.4
-0.7
-0.53
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.3
1.9
0.93
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-0.1
1
1.40
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:10
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.33
45.45
39
39.15
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
50.9
48.2
47
46.80
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.518
61.721
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49
50
49.7
49.68
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY Surges to 2.10 Percent December 2025 GDP Growth Rate YoY Exceeds Expectations The GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual change in a country’s economic output compared to the same month last year. South Africa’s GDP Growth Rate YoY jumped to 2.10% in December 2025, well above the forecasted 0.40% and the previous 0.90%. This sharp rise highlights a strong rebound in the ZA economy, driven by higher commodity exports and renewed domestic demand. According to Morgan Stanley, “The acceleration in South Africa’s GDP growth rate signals improving economic momentum, supported by easing energy constraints and stable monetary policy.” The South African Reserve Bank’s cautious stance and ongoing fiscal discipline appear to be fostering a more resilient growth environment. However, risks remain from global trade tensions and persistent unemployment. The ZAR strengthened following the release, reflecting growing investor confidence in ZA’s recovery prospects.
The December 2025 GDP growth rate of 2.10% YoY represents a sharp rebound from the 0.60% recorded in September 2025 and well above the 12-month average of 0.80%. This marks the strongest expansion since the 1.60% growth in September 2023, signaling a reversal of the sluggish trend observed throughout 2024 and early 2025.
Quarterly data show a steady climb in output across mining, manufacturing, and services sectors. The mining sector alone grew by 4.50% YoY, driven by higher commodity prices and improved operational efficiency. Meanwhile, the services sector expanded by 1.80%, reflecting stronger retail and financial services activity.