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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.9% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.9% in April 2026, released September 2026, down 1.0% from March's 1.9% reading. The reading missed the 1.2% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.8%.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
1.2
Consensus
1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.2
Actual: 0.9
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (South Africa) was reported at 0.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.2% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.2%, up from the prior three at 1.17%. In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bullish ZAR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - ZA
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — South Africa
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bullish ZAR, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |