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Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.0 in February 2026, down 1.9 from January's 0.9 reading. The reading missed the 0.7 consensus by 1.7. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.25. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.25, vs 0.45 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
The April 2026 reading fell from the previous value of 0.9. Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU) and positively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD).
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| Tuesday, May 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Unemployed Persons | 8.137 | 7.836 | 8.2 | 8.17 | Low | |
| 09:00 | Unemployment Rate | 32.7 | 31.4 | 32.3 | 32.50 | Medium | |
| 09:30 | Unemployment Rate | 32.7 | 31.4 | 32.3 | 32.50 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | Unemployed Persons | 8.137 | 7.836 | 8.2 | 8.17 | Low | |
| 11:00 | Manufacturing Production YoY | 0.9 | -2.3 | -1 | -0.68 | Low | |
| 11:00 | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.10 | Low | |
| Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | Unemployed Persons | 7.836 | 8.2 | 8.17 | Low | ||