Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Africa Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.3% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 2.7% from July's 2.4% reading. The print exceeded the -1.5% consensus by 1.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.36%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.95%, vs 0.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 28th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
-1.5
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.95
Actual: -0.3
Error: -0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (South Africa) was reported at -0.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.5% by 1.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.41%, ranging from -0.6% to 2.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.53%, up from the prior three at 0.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.87%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.04%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged -0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/ZAR, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Retail Sales MoM - ZA
Loading chart data...
About Retail Sales MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus -1.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | ZA | Private Sector Credit YoY | 6.23 | 7.47 | 7.5 | 6.87 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.2 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.95 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |