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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Balance of Trade fell to 4.29B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Italy Balance of Trade fell to 4.29B in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.52B from March's 4.81B reading. The reading missed the 5.19B consensus by 0.9B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 3.58B, vs 5.87B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.293
Actual
5.19
Consensus
4.813
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.51 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 4.46
Actual: 4.71
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.92 | INDEX | Bullish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.87 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Italy) was reported at 4.29 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.19 billion by 0.90 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.81 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.90 billion, ranging from 1.09 billion to 8.39 billion across 14 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.78 billion, down from the prior three at 5.52 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.14 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.03 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 4.24 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.51 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IT
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About Balance of Trade — Italy
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.293 M, consensus 5.19 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 4.709 M. Before that (Feb 2026): 5.53 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.92) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.