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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -0.4 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -0.4 in May 2026, down 27.1 from April's 26.7 reading. The reading missed the 18 consensus by 18.4. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 6.65. Over the past 3 months, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 22.4, vs 6.23 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 40th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
18
Consensus
26.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±11.08
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 15.98
Actual: 18.1
Error: -2.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at -0.40 in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 18.00 by 18.40. The reading fell from the previous value of 26.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.71, ranging from -12.80 to 23.20 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 15.67, up from the prior three at -8.23. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.26) is lower than the prior year (σ 17.46). In March readings over the past 3 years, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 11.27.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 11.08.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Leading Index MoM (May 22) and Fed Waller Speech (May 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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