Atlanta Fed Gdpnow - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.7
Previous
The US Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for March 2026 held steady at 2.70%, matching February’s final reading and missing any acceleration from January’s 3.60%. This signals a moderation in growth momentum as consumer spending and net exports provided modest support while private investment weighed. Market reaction was muted, with investors focusing on upcoming retail sales and industrial output data for further guidance. Updated 3/14/26
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Atlanta Fed Gdpnow - US
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Key Takeaways: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for US Q1 2026 growth held steady at 2.7% as of March, unchanged from February’s final reading. The model’s momentum has cooled from January’s 3.6% pace, with consumer spending and net exports as primary drivers. Market reaction muted; focus shifts to upcoming data for further direction.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Holds at 2.7% for March: Growth Momentum Moderates
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, a widely watched real-time tracker of US economic growth, posted a 2.7% annualized estimate for Q1 2026 as of March 13. This matches February’s final reading, marking a notable slowdown from January’s 3.6% projection. The model assimilates incoming macroeconomic data to provide a running estimate of GDP growth, offering a transparent, data-driven alternative to consensus forecasts.[1]
The 2.7% GDPNow estimate sits above the Federal Reserve’s longer-run median target of 1.8% real GDP growth.[1]
Market lens
Markets showed little immediate reaction to the unchanged GDPNow print. Equities and Treasuries traded in narrow ranges, reflecting a wait-and-see stance as investors digest the plateau in growth momentum. The steady reading signals resilience but also a cooling from the brisk expansion seen at the start of the year.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Durable goods orders: +0.07pp
Retail sales: +0.05pp
Residential construction: -0.04pp
Policy pulse
The GDPNow model’s 2.7% reading remains above the 2.1% average for the past 12 months, but below the January peak of 3.6%.
Market lens
Bond yields held steady as growth expectations stabilized. The absence of a fresh acceleration in the GDPNow estimate kept rate hike bets in check, with investors awaiting further signals from upcoming employment and inflation releases.
Chart Dynamics
March’s GDPNow estimate of 2.7% matches February’s final reading and is down from January’s 3.6%. The 12-month average stands at 2.1%, highlighting a moderation in growth momentum after a robust start to the year. February’s 2.7% marked a sharp rebound from the early March dip to 2.1%, while the current level remains above the trailing average but below the recent high.
Since November 2025, the GDPNow tracker has ranged from 2.1% to 3.6%, with the latest print signaling a return to trend after a brief surge. The model’s real-time adjustments reflect shifting contributions from consumer spending, trade, and investment components.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow trend, January–March 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The GDPNow trajectory underscores a cooling in US growth after a strong January. The model’s stabilization at 2.7% suggests the economy is reverting to its recent trend, with neither a sharp slowdown nor renewed acceleration evident in the latest data.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish: Growth rebounds to 3.1–3.6% (20% probability)
Base: GDPNow holds near 2.5–2.7% (65% probability)
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model assimilates high-frequency macro data, including retail sales, industrial production, and trade, updating its estimate as new releases arrive.[1] It is not a forecast but a nowcast, reflecting the latest available information.
Downside: Weakening business investment, global trade headwinds
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investors are watching for confirmation of the growth plateau. The GDPNow’s steadiness at 2.7% has kept volatility low, but attention will turn to next week’s retail sales and industrial output data for signs of renewed momentum or further cooling.
Historical context
March 2026: 2.7%
February 2026: 2.7%
January 2026: 3.6%
December 2025: 2.1%
The GDPNow model remains a closely watched barometer for real-time US growth, with its latest reading signaling a moderation but not a reversal in economic activity.
Key Markets Reacting to Atlanta Fed GDPNow
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow’s real-time growth signals ripple across equities, currencies, and crypto. The model’s stabilization at 2.7% for March has kept risk appetite in check, with investors weighing the implications for US assets. Below are key tradable symbols directly impacted by shifts in the GDPNow estimate, each verified from Sigmanomics’ official listings.
AAPL — Apple shares often track US growth sentiment, with GDPNow upswings supporting tech valuations.
EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair reacts to US growth surprises, with stronger GDPNow prints typically boosting the dollar.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s risk profile can rise when US growth data surprises, as investors adjust macro hedges.
GDPNow vs. AAPL: 2020–2026
Year
GDPNow Avg (%)
AAPL Trend
2020
-3.5
Sharp rebound post-pandemic
2021
5.7
Strong rally
2022
2.1
Moderate gains
2023
2.5
Sideways
2024
2.6
Gradual climb
2025
2.3
Stable
2026 YTD
2.8
Muted volatility
Periods of above-trend GDPNow readings have historically coincided with stronger AAPL performance, while dips in the estimate have aligned with consolidation phases.
FAQ
What is the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and why does it matter?
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is a real-time model that tracks US GDP growth using incoming macroeconomic data. It offers a transparent, data-driven alternative to consensus forecasts and is closely watched by markets for its timely updates.
How did the GDPNow estimate change for March 2026?
The GDPNow estimate for March 2026 held steady at 2.7%, unchanged from February’s final reading and down from January’s 3.6% pace.
What are the main drivers of the current GDPNow reading?
Consumer spending and net exports contributed positively to the March estimate, while private investment and residential construction acted as modest drags.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow’s March reading signals a moderation in US growth, with markets awaiting fresh data for direction.
Updated 3/14/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDPNow, https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Economic Calendar - US Events
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.3
5.3
5.73
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
-
3.3
1.4
2.55
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-
2.6
0.2
1.80
Medium
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
-
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
-
52.9
54
54.00
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
-
50.4
52.4
52.80
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
-
3.2
3.4
3.47
Low
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
37
39
40
38.50
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
-
54.6
55
55.10
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2
2.5
2.7
2.80
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
76.3
76
76
76.08
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
2
1.9
2
2.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.13
Medium
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-71
-119
-90
-85.17
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
198
207
215
208.33
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0.4
0
-0.1
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.25
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1884
1903
1890
1883.17
High
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
7.7
-3.7
1
4.35
High
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
-
0
-0.1
-0.10
Medium
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
12.6
-8.8
-2
-1.65
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
205
211.5
215
212.58
High
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
-0.029
5.594
-0.2
0.86
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
3.391
-3.831
-2.2
-2.26
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
8.977
7.702
4
6.29
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
-
47.9
47.4
46.90
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.35
4.14
4.21
4.23
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
5.1
0.7
-1.6
1.40
High
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.23
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.4
3
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
-
2.6
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Current Account
-226.4
-249.2
-238.4
-232.40
Medium
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.45
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.3
3.3
3
3.27
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.63
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.25
High
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
5.27
-2.8
-2
-2.64
Medium
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-145
-173
-150
-147.50
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-145
-173
-144.5
-144.75
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
800
710
710.00
High
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.69
0.69
Medium
15:00
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
High
13:30
US
CPI
324.05
324.12
323.8
323.61
High
13:30
US
CPI s.a
326.03
325.031
325.7
325.87
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.60
High
13:30
US
Building Permits
1.411
1.415
1.412
2.81
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99.5
99
99.5
99.50
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn
13.28
1.55
13.1
13.19
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat
1.68
2.13
1.65
1.67
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy
3.29
0.32
3.28
3.29
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
54
52.9
53.5
53.50
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
52.4
50.4
50.5
50.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.17
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
54.6
54.2
54.30
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.32
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.63
Medium
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.60
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts
1.246
1.306
1.33
1.29
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-4.6
1.2
0.8
-1.90
Medium
13:30
US
Building Permits
6.4
-2.3
0.8
2.20
Medium
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
13
6
-10
-4.75
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.53
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-8
-2
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
37
50
64
63.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
50
56
60
61.00
High
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
4.23
9.24
10
7.12
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
4.23
9.24
10.1
7.17
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
2.7
2.7
3.13
Medium
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.30
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-119
-38
-114
-109.17
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
3
3.95
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
208
200
210
203.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1914
1858
1900
1893.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
211.75
219
210.75
208.33
High
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
1
-0.45
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-29.4
-48.1
-58.9
-44.15
Medium
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
10:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
7.702
5.845
2.9
5.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.831
-1.934
1.1
1.04
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
5.594
4.977
2.2
3.26
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.146
7.449
7.6
7.37
High
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.25
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.161
2.973
2.99
3.08
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
54.4
52.6
52.2
53.30
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.6
55.25
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
-1.3
0.2
-1.2
-1.25
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
52
48.9
49
50.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
64.3
65.4
64.9
64.60
High
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
54.4
52.6
52.3
53.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
56
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
52
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
64.3
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.50
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
41
-29
47
44.00
High
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-2.8
1.7
1.2
0.56
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.7
54.2
53
52.70
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.5
54.1
52.9
52.52
Low
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
16
15.6
15.7
15.85
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
2.7
3
3
3.43
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
-
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
-
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
-
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
-
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
-
52.6
52
53.05
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44.9
44
44.1
44.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.7
47.4
47.2
47.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58.5
59
58.75
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.2
48.3
48.10
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
51.8
51.75
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.6
4.7
4.72
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
69
6
5.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
-
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-
-5
-10
-10.75
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-
-5
-6
-0.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
64
12
13.00
High
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-38
-166
-53
-48.17
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.934
0.405
-0.9
-0.96
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
5.845
2.862
1.9
4.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
4.977
0.202
2.2
3.26
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
-
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1866
1913
1915
1908.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
218.75
217
224.25
221.83
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
199
215
220
213.33
High
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
0.1
-2.5
-4
-1.95
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-3.3
-2.3
-2
-2.65
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
43.5
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
1.8
0.9
1.30
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.20
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
436.7
435.2
435.8
436.25
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
Monday, December 29, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-166
-167
-168
-163.17
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.9
-10.4
-2.5
-6.70
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.202
1.712
0.4
1.46
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.862
4.808
1.1
3.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.405
-1.274
-2.4
-2.46
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
3.3
2.4
1
2.15
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
2.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.00
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0.5
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
217.5
219
216.58
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
214
224
223
216.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1923
1885
1900
1893.17
High
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-11
-14
-3
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.71
0.71
High
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-6
-4
1
-2.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-7
-15
-7
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
89.1
92.9
91
90.05
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.1
0.9
1.15
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
-
1.5
1
1.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2.2
1.9
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.4
0
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
1.6
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
76
75.9
75.98
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.13
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
75.9
77.2
77.28
Low
13:55
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.6
0.3
0.25
Low
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.20
Medium
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
2.8
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
4.4
0.2
1
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
4.6
7.5
7.4
6.00
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
-1.5
0.1
-0.8
-1.15
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.25
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
-1.85
High
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.5
1.1
-0.1
0.20
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
54.6
51
55
55.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.28
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.13
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.13
4.11
4.2
4.22
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
0.5
1.5
-4.8
-1.80
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.4
51.1
50.7
51.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
52.9
51
53.4
53.40
High
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.23
Medium
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
US
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
17.5
173.2
122.7
70.10
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
1
8
6
3.50
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-3
18
11
4.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-167
-177
-169
-164.17
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1897
1830
1930
1923.17
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.2
-1.7
3
3.35
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
217.5
217
218.5
216.08
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
224
237
225
218.33
High
13:30
US
Current Account
-
-251.3
-250
-244.00
Medium
13:30
US
CPI
324.12
324.8
325.13
324.94
High
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3
3
2.88
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3
3.1
3.00
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
4.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-1.16
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
2.26
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-2.84
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.23
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.25
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.60
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
51.95
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.63
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.10
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
52.95
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.90
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.28
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
2.25
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.18
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.82
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
51.00
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
44.25
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.43
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.35
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
2.98
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.33
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.35
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Holds Steady at 2.70 Percent in March The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model provides a real-time estimate of US economic growth based on incoming data. The latest reading for the first quarter of 2026 remains at 2.70%, unchanged from February’s final estimate, with a previous high of 3.60% in January. Period-over-period change: steady at 2.70%. Release date: March 13, 2026. This sustained pace suggests a moderation in growth momentum after a strong start to the year, driven primarily by consumer spending and net exports, while private investment showed some weakness. Market reaction has been muted as investors await further data to confirm whether this plateau will hold. According to Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, “The steady GDPNow reading reflects an economy that is resilient but facing headwinds that could temper growth in coming months.” This snapshot underscores cautious optimism amid evolving economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy considerations.
March’s GDPNow estimate of 2.7% matches February’s final reading and is down from January’s 3.6%. The 12-month average stands at 2.1%, highlighting a moderation in growth momentum after a robust start to the year. February’s 2.7% marked a sharp rebound from the early March dip to 2.1%, while the current level remains above the trailing average but below the recent high.
Since November 2025, the GDPNow tracker has ranged from 2.1% to 3.6%, with the latest print signaling a return to trend after a brief surge. The model’s real-time adjustments reflect shifting contributions from consumer spending, trade, and investment components.