The latest US Durable Goods Orders MoM figure for November 2025, released on November 26, shows a 0.50% increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.30% but significantly lower than October’s robust 3.00% gain. Durable goods orders are a critical gauge of manufacturing health and capital investment intentions, reflecting business confidence and future production activity. This month’s moderate rise suggests a tempering of demand after a volatile year marked by sharp monthly swings, including a 16.40% surge in June and a 9.30% drop in July.

Drivers this month

• Moderate pickup in transportation equipment orders, particularly commercial aircraft.
• Steady demand for machinery and electrical equipment.
• Offset by softness in defense and primary metals segments.

Policy pulse

The 0.50% increase remains consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation-targeting framework, as durable goods orders growth slows from earlier peaks. The Fed’s ongoing rate hikes and quantitative tightening continue to weigh on capital spending, but the data does not yet signal a sharp contraction.

Market lens

Immediate market reaction was muted. The USD index held steady, while 2-year Treasury yields edged up 3 basis points, reflecting cautious optimism. Equity markets showed minor gains in industrial sectors.

Durable goods orders are closely linked to broader macroeconomic indicators such as industrial production, business investment, and GDP growth. The 0.50% MoM increase in November contrasts with the volatile swings seen earlier in 2025, including a -2.20% drop in January and a 9.20% surge in April. Year-to-date, the average monthly change stands near 1.10%, indicating moderate expansion in manufacturing activity.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, with the federal funds rate now at 5.25%, has increased borrowing costs. This has restrained some capital expenditures, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like transportation and machinery. However, the modest rise in durable goods orders suggests businesses are cautiously proceeding with investments amid stable credit conditions.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Recent fiscal measures, including infrastructure spending and tax incentives for manufacturing, have supported demand for durable goods. However, government budget constraints and debt ceiling negotiations introduce uncertainty that could dampen future orders.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global supply chain disruptions have eased but remain a factor, especially in semiconductors and raw materials. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and East Asia continue to pose risks to trade flows and commodity prices, potentially impacting durable goods production and exports.

What This Chart Tells Us: Durable goods orders are trending toward a more stable growth path, reversing the two-month decline seen in August and September. This signals a cautious but steady manufacturing sector, balancing supply chain normalization with tighter financial conditions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/USD dipped 0.15% post-release, reflecting slight USD strength amid mixed data. Industrial equities showed mild gains, while bond yields rose modestly.

Looking ahead, durable goods orders face a complex interplay of factors. The base case scenario, with a 60% probability, anticipates steady growth near 0.30%-0.70% monthly, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and moderate business confidence. The bullish case (20% probability) envisions a rebound to 1.00%-1.50% monthly growth if supply chains fully normalize and fiscal stimulus expands. Conversely, the bearish case (20% probability) projects a contraction of -0.50% or more if monetary tightening sharply curtails investment or geopolitical tensions escalate.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term trends include increased automation and reshoring of manufacturing, which could sustain durable goods demand despite cyclical headwinds. However, demographic shifts and energy transition policies may alter capital spending patterns, favoring green technologies over traditional equipment.

Policy pulse

The Federal Reserve’s stance will remain pivotal. Any pivot toward easing could boost orders, while further hikes risk dampening investment. Fiscal policy clarity, especially regarding infrastructure and trade, will also shape the outlook.

November’s durable goods orders data points to a manufacturing sector in cautious recovery mode. The 0.50% MoM rise, while modest, beats expectations and suggests resilience amid tighter financial conditions and external uncertainties. Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming prints closely, as durable goods orders often presage broader economic shifts. Balancing inflation control with growth support remains the central challenge.

In summary, the US durable goods sector is navigating a transitional phase, with moderate growth likely in the near term but risks from monetary policy and geopolitics persisting. Strategic investments in technology and infrastructure could provide upside, while global uncertainties warrant vigilance.

Key Markets Likely to React to Durable Goods Orders MoM

Durable goods orders influence a range of markets, from industrial equities to currency pairs and commodities. The indicator’s sensitivity to manufacturing activity and capital spending makes it a bellwether for economic momentum and risk sentiment. Traders and investors often watch related stocks and forex pairs for early signals of shifts in growth expectations.

• BA – Boeing’s performance correlates with durable goods orders, especially in transportation equipment.
• CAT – Caterpillar reflects machinery demand linked to capital investment trends.
• USDEUR – The USD/EUR exchange rate often reacts to US manufacturing data and monetary policy shifts.
• USDJPY – Sensitive to risk sentiment and US economic indicators.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price sometimes reflects broader risk appetite influenced by economic data.

Insight: Durable Goods Orders vs. BA Stock Performance Since 2020

Since 2020, monthly durable goods orders and Boeing (BA) stock prices have shown a positive correlation, with BA often leading on strong orders in transportation equipment. For example, the June 2025 16.40% surge in orders coincided with a 12% rally in BA shares. This relationship underscores how durable goods data can signal shifts in industrial demand and investor sentiment in key manufacturing sectors.

FAQs

What does Durable Goods Orders MoM indicate?

Durable Goods Orders MoM measures the monthly change in new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, signaling business investment trends and manufacturing health.

How does Durable Goods Orders impact the economy?

It influences GDP growth forecasts, industrial production, and employment, as higher orders typically lead to increased manufacturing output and capital spending.

Why is Durable Goods Orders important for investors?

Investors use it to gauge economic momentum and sector-specific demand, affecting stock prices in industrials, machinery, and transportation sectors.

Final Takeaway: November’s 0.50% rise in US Durable Goods Orders signals a cautious but steady manufacturing sector, balancing growth prospects with tightening financial conditions and geopolitical risks.

Author: John Smith, Senior Economic Analyst

Updated 11/26/25

Sources

1. US Census Bureau, Durable Goods Orders, November 2025 Release.
2. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
3. Sigmanomics database, Durable Goods Orders Historical Data.
4. MarketWatch, Equity and Bond Market Reactions, November 2025.

Key Markets Likely to React to Durable Goods Orders MoM

Durable goods orders data strongly influences industrial stocks, currency pairs sensitive to US growth, and risk-on assets. The following symbols historically track the indicator’s movements and provide actionable insights for traders and investors.

• BA – Correlates with transportation equipment orders.
• CAT – Reflects machinery demand tied to capital spending.
• USDEUR – Sensitive to US economic data and Fed policy.
• USDJPY – Tracks risk sentiment and US macro trends.
• BTCUSD – Reflects broader risk appetite shifts.

Insight Box: Durable Goods Orders vs. BA Stock Price Since 2020

This table highlights the positive correlation between durable goods orders and Boeing’s stock price, underscoring the importance of manufacturing data for industrial equities.