US Import Prices MoM: December 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
Key Takeaways: The latest US Import Prices MoM reading for December 2025 came in flat at 0.00%, missing the 0.10% consensus estimate and matching the previous month’s 0.10% rise. This pause in import price inflation marks a notable shift from the 0.30–0.40% monthly gains seen in late summer. The data signals easing external cost pressures amid a complex backdrop of monetary tightening, fiscal recalibration, and geopolitical uncertainty. Market reactions were muted, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation dynamics. Forward-looking risks remain balanced, with upside inflation pressures from supply disruptions countered by slowing global demand and a stronger dollar. This report draws on the Sigmanomics database and cross-references historical trends to assess the broader macroeconomic context and outlook.
Table of Contents
The December 2025 US Import Prices MoM reading of 0.00% contrasts with the 0.10% rise expected by economists and the prior month’s 0.10% gain. This flat reading follows a summer stretch where import prices increased by 0.30% in September and peaked at 0.40% in August, according to the Sigmanomics database. The moderation signals a pause in imported inflation pressures, which had been a key driver of headline inflation throughout 2025.
Drivers this month
- Energy import prices stabilized, contributing to a neutral overall effect.
- Non-energy goods saw mixed price movements, with electronics prices declining slightly.
- Supply chain normalization reduced upward pressure from transportation costs.
Policy pulse
The flat import price reading aligns with the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to bring inflation closer to its 2% target. After aggressive rate hikes earlier in 2025, the Fed has signaled a more cautious approach, awaiting clearer signs of sustained disinflation. The import price stability supports the view that external inflation pressures are easing, potentially allowing for a pause or slower pace in monetary tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened modestly by 0.15% post-release, reflecting safe-haven demand amid mixed inflation signals. Treasury yields on the 2-year note edged down 3 basis points, suggesting reduced near-term rate hike expectations. Equity markets showed limited movement, with the S&P 500 hovering near flat.
Import prices are a critical input for understanding inflationary pressures transmitted through global trade. The US Import Prices MoM figure directly influences the Producer Price Index (PPI) and, ultimately, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. The December reading of 0.00% contrasts with the 12-month average monthly gain of approximately 0.15% over the past year, indicating a deceleration in imported cost pressures.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in 2025, which lifted the federal funds rate from 4.25% to 5.25%, has begun to temper demand and inflation expectations. The flat import price reading supports the Fed’s narrative that external inflation pressures are abating, potentially reducing the need for further aggressive hikes. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit spreads stable and the dollar maintaining strength.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the US government running a deficit near 5% of GDP in 2025. However, recent budget negotiations have focused on deficit reduction and targeted spending, which could dampen domestic demand and import volumes. This fiscal restraint complements the import price moderation by limiting demand-driven inflation.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and East Asia continue to pose upside risks to import prices through potential supply chain disruptions. However, recent easing of shipping bottlenecks and energy market stabilization have offset these risks for now. The flat import price reading suggests that markets have priced in these risks without immediate cost pass-through.
Drivers this month
- Energy import prices stabilized after a 0.50% drop in November.
- Non-energy goods prices declined 0.10%, led by electronics and machinery.
- Transportation and freight cost normalization reduced overall import price inflation.
This chart reveals a clear trend of easing imported inflation pressures, reversing the upward momentum from mid-2025. The flat December reading suggests that external cost shocks are lessening, which could ease inflationary pressures domestically and support a more balanced monetary policy stance in early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.15% within the first hour, reflecting confidence in the Fed’s inflation control. The 2-year Treasury yield declined by 3 basis points, signaling reduced expectations for near-term rate hikes. Equity markets remained steady, with the S&P 500 fluctuating less than 0.10%.
Looking ahead, the US Import Prices MoM data suggests a nuanced outlook. The flat reading in December could mark the start of a sustained moderation in imported inflation, but risks remain. Supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and commodity price volatility could reignite upward pressures. Conversely, slowing global demand and a strong dollar may keep import prices subdued.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30% probability): Continued easing of supply chain issues and stable energy prices keep import prices flat or declining, supporting disinflation and allowing the Fed to pause hikes.
- Base (50% probability): Import prices fluctuate modestly around zero, reflecting balanced risks and steady inflation control efforts.
- Bearish (20% probability): Renewed geopolitical shocks or commodity price spikes push import prices up 0.20–0.30% monthly, complicating inflation control and prompting further Fed tightening.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Longer-term trends include gradual globalization shifts and supply chain diversification, which may reduce the volatility of import prices. Additionally, technological advances and energy transition policies could alter commodity price dynamics, influencing import price trajectories over the next decade.
The December 2025 US Import Prices MoM reading of 0.00% signals a pause in imported inflation pressures after a summer of elevated gains. This moderation aligns with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control objectives and reflects easing energy prices and supply chain normalization. While risks from geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility persist, the data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for inflation and monetary policy in early 2026. Market reactions were muted but leaned toward a stronger dollar and lower short-term yields, indicating confidence in the Fed’s path. Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming import price releases closely, as shifts could signal changes in inflation dynamics and financial conditions.
Key Markets Likely to React to Import Prices MoM
Import Prices MoM data influences a range of markets sensitive to inflation and trade dynamics. Currency pairs like USDCAD often react to shifts in commodity-linked import prices. The equity market, represented by SPX, tracks inflation expectations and Fed policy implications. Treasury yields, such as the TLT ETF proxy, respond to inflation data and monetary policy outlook. On the crypto front, inflation-sensitive assets like BTCUSD may see volatility around inflation prints. Lastly, the industrial sector ETF XLI correlates with import price trends due to exposure to global supply chains.
Import Prices vs. USDCAD Since 2020
Since 2020, monthly US Import Prices and the USDCAD currency pair have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising import prices often coincide with a weaker US dollar against the Canadian dollar, reflecting commodity price impacts and trade dynamics. The recent flattening of import prices aligns with a modest strengthening of USDCAD, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to inflation data.
FAQs
- What does the US Import Prices MoM report indicate?
- The report measures the monthly change in prices paid for imported goods, signaling inflation pressures from abroad.
- How does Import Prices MoM affect monetary policy?
- Rising import prices can increase inflation, influencing the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.
- Why is the December 2025 Import Prices MoM reading significant?
- The flat December reading suggests easing imported inflation, impacting inflation forecasts and market expectations.
Takeaway: The December 2025 flat US Import Prices MoM reading signals easing external inflation pressures, supporting a cautious Fed approach and balanced market sentiment heading into 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
SPX – US equity benchmark sensitive to inflation and Fed policy.
USDCAD – Currency pair reflecting commodity and import price dynamics.
TLT – Treasury ETF tracking long-term interest rate moves linked to inflation.
BTCUSD – Crypto asset reacting to inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.
XLI – Industrial sector ETF correlated with global trade and import prices.
The December 2025 US Import Prices MoM reading of 0.00% marks a clear deceleration from the 0.10% rise in November and the 0.30–0.40% gains seen in August and September. The 12-month average monthly increase stands at roughly 0.15%, highlighting that the current print is below trend. This suggests a pause in imported inflation pressures after a period of sustained increases.
Historically, import prices have shown volatility linked to energy prices and global supply chain disruptions. The current flat reading contrasts with the 0.40% spike in August 2025, which was driven by elevated oil prices and shipping costs. The moderation in December reflects easing energy costs and improved logistics.