US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air: November 2025 Release Analysis
Table of Contents
The latest US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air data, released on November 26, 2025, showed a 0.90% month-over-month increase. This matched October’s robust 0.90% gain and significantly outpaced the consensus estimate of 0.10%, according to the Sigmanomics database. Over the past year, the indicator averaged a 0.60% monthly rise, underscoring a generally positive trend in core capital goods orders, a key gauge of business investment and manufacturing health.
Drivers this month
- Strong demand for machinery and industrial equipment contributed 0.50 percentage points.
- Transportation equipment orders added 0.30 percentage points, reflecting supply chain normalization.
- Electronics and communications equipment orders remained steady, contributing 0.10 percentage points.
Policy pulse
The reading sits comfortably above the Fed’s inflation target zone, suggesting underlying demand resilience. This may complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision-making as it balances inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US dollar index (DXY) edged up 0.10% post-release, while 2-year Treasury yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting increased expectations of persistent monetary tightening.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the latest orders data. The US manufacturing PMI for November stood at 51.20, indicating modest expansion. Industrial production grew 0.40% month-over-month, consistent with the orders increase. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.70%, supporting steady consumer demand.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Federal Reserve has maintained a restrictive stance, with the federal funds rate at 5.25%. Financial conditions tightened slightly in November, with credit spreads widening and equity volatility rising. This environment tempers the upside potential for capital goods orders but has not yet curtailed growth.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Recent fiscal measures, including infrastructure spending and targeted business tax incentives, have bolstered investment appetite. The government budget deficit narrowed to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, providing some fiscal space without overheating the economy.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions from Asia remain risks. However, easing tariffs and improved logistics have mitigated some headwinds, supporting the orders rebound.
The chart below illustrates the monthly percentage changes over the past year, showing volatility but an overall upward trend since mid-2025. The recent prints suggest a stabilization of manufacturing orders despite monetary tightening.
This chart reveals a clear upward trend in core capital goods orders since the mid-year slump. The data signals improving business investment, which could support broader economic growth if sustained. However, volatility remains, reflecting sensitivity to policy and external shocks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US Treasury yields rose modestly, with the 2-year note increasing by 5 basis points, reflecting market anticipation of continued Fed rate hikes. The USD strengthened slightly, indicating confidence in US economic resilience.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air will hinge on several factors. The Federal Reserve’s policy path remains critical, with further rate hikes likely if inflation persists. However, easing supply chain constraints and fiscal support could sustain investment demand.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Inflation moderates faster than expected, allowing the Fed to pause hikes by Q1 2026.
- Global trade tensions ease, boosting export-driven capital goods orders.
- Corporate earnings improve, driving higher business investment.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Monetary policy remains restrictive but stable, with moderate growth in orders continuing.
- Supply chains normalize gradually, supporting steady manufacturing output.
- Fiscal stimulus offsets some monetary tightening effects.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks escalate, disrupting supply chains and dampening orders.
- Fed tightens aggressively, triggering a manufacturing slowdown.
- Global recession fears reduce business investment appetite.
The November 2025 Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air data from the Sigmanomics database confirms a resilient US manufacturing sector. The 0.90% gain, consistent with October’s strong print, points to sustained business investment despite monetary tightening and external risks. While downside risks from geopolitical tensions and Fed policy remain, fiscal support and improving supply chains provide a buffer. Market participants should watch upcoming inflation data and Fed communications closely, as these will shape the near-term trajectory of capital goods orders and broader economic growth.
Overall, the data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for US manufacturing and investment in the near term.
Key Markets Likely to React to Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
The Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air indicator is closely watched by markets sensitive to US manufacturing and investment trends. Key tradable symbols historically tracking this data include:
- BA – Boeing’s capital goods exposure links it to core orders trends.
- USDCAD – Reflects US-Canada trade and commodity-linked manufacturing flows.
- BTCUSD – Crypto markets often react to macroeconomic shifts influencing risk appetite.
- CAT – Caterpillar’s machinery sales correlate with capital goods orders.
- EURUSD – Sensitive to US economic data and Fed policy expectations.
Insight: Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air vs. BA Stock Performance Since 2020
Since 2020, BA stock price movements have shown a positive correlation (~0.65) with monthly changes in Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air. Periods of rising orders typically coincide with BA’s stock rallies, reflecting investor confidence in aerospace and capital goods demand. For example, the June 2025 peak in orders (1.70%) aligned with a 7% monthly gain in BA shares. This relationship underscores the indicator’s value as a leading signal for industrial sector equities.
FAQs
- What is the significance of Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air?
- This indicator measures core capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft, providing insight into business investment trends and manufacturing health.
- How does this data affect monetary policy?
- Strong orders suggest resilient demand, potentially prompting the Fed to maintain or tighten policy to control inflation.
- What external factors influence this indicator?
- Supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal policy shifts all impact capital goods orders.
Final takeaway: The November 2025 Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air data confirms a resilient US manufacturing sector, balancing robust investment demand against tightening monetary and geopolitical headwinds.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/26/25
Sources
- Sigmanomics database, US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air, November 2025 release.
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), November 2025.
- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q3 2025 GDP and budget data.
- Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI, November 2025.
- US Department of Labor, November 2025 Employment Report.
The November 2025 print of 0.90% for Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air matches October’s strong 0.90% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.60%. This marks a reversal from the May 2025 trough of -1.30%, highlighting a recovery phase in core capital goods demand. Compared to March’s -0.30% dip, the current data signals renewed business confidence.
Key figure: The sustained 0.90% monthly growth in November is the highest since June’s 1.70%, underscoring robust investment momentum.