Producer Price Index - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States Producer Price Index
Latest Release
152.174
Actual
151.9
Consensus
Previous
US Producer Price Index for January 2026 rose to 152.17, beating estimates of 151.90. This marks the fastest monthly increase since August 2025, up from December’s 151.47, signaling persistent upstream inflation pressures. Bond yields rose sharply as markets priced in a hawkish Federal Reserve stance amid ongoing cost inflation. Updated 2/27/26
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Producer Price Index - US
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Key Takeaways: US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January 2026 rose to 152.17, up from December's 151.47. This marks the fastest monthly increase since August 2025. Upward pressure came from energy and intermediate goods. The 12-month trend shows persistent producer cost inflation, with the index up 4.5 points since May 2025.
US Producer Price Index Surges in January, Extending Upward Trend
The latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) print for January 2026 signals renewed cost pressures for producers, with implications for inflation and monetary policy. Below, we break down the data, drivers, and market response.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
Energy: +0.21pp
Intermediate goods: +0.13pp
Food: +0.07pp
Services: +0.04pp
Policy pulse
January's PPI reading of 152.17 stands above the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation trajectory. The index has climbed 1.47 points since November 2025, reflecting persistent upstream price pressures.
Market lens
Bond yields rose sharply on the release, as traders recalibrated inflation expectations. Equities saw a modest pullback, with rate-sensitive sectors underperforming. The dollar strengthened against major peers, reflecting a hawkish shift in rate outlooks.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
January 2026: 152.17
December 2025: 151.47
November 2025: 150.71
August 2025: 149.67
May 2025: 147.68
Comparative trends
The PPI has advanced 0.7 points month-over-month (MoM) from December to January, and 1.46 points since November. Year-over-year (YoY), the index is up 4.5 points from May 2025's 147.68. The 12-month average sits at 149.60, underscoring the current reading's elevated status.
Market lens
Futures pricing shifted to reflect higher inflation risk, with swaps markets now discounting a slower pace of policy easing. Commodity-linked equities outperformed on expectations of sustained input cost growth.
Chart Dynamics
January's PPI print of 152.17 outpaces December's 151.47 and the 12-month average of 149.60. The index has notched its largest monthly gain since August 2025, when it rose 1.44 points. Over the past six months, the PPI has climbed steadily, with only a brief pause in September 2025.
The current level is the highest since the series began tracking this methodology. The trend line remains upward, with no sign of reversal in producer cost pressures.
Producer Price Index trend, May 2025 – January 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The PPI's persistent climb signals entrenched cost inflation at the producer level. The acceleration since November 2025 highlights renewed supply-side pressures, raising the risk of pass-through to consumer prices if the trend persists.
Base case (50–60%): PPI continues gradual ascent, averaging 0.5–0.7 points MoM through Q2 2026.
Bearish (15–25%): Upstream shocks drive PPI above 153.0 by March, amplifying inflation risks.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Downside risks stem from demand softening or policy tightening. The Federal Reserve's stance and global commodity trends remain pivotal.
Market lens
Inflation hedges gained traction, with TIPS and commodity ETFs attracting inflows. Rate volatility is likely to persist as markets digest the implications for monetary policy and corporate margins.
Closing Thoughts
Summary perspective
January's PPI surge to 152.17 underscores persistent cost pressures in the US production pipeline. The index's steady rise since mid-2025 signals ongoing challenges for policymakers and businesses navigating an inflationary environment. Market participants remain focused on upstream data for clues to the broader inflation trajectory.
Key Markets Reacting to Producer Price Index
US PPI releases often trigger swift moves across asset classes. Equity, currency, and crypto markets all respond to shifts in producer cost inflation, as these changes can alter expectations for interest rates, margins, and risk appetite. Below are select symbols with direct or indirect exposure to the PPI trend.
AAPL: Sensitive to supply chain cost changes and margin compression from rising input prices.
EURUSD: Dollar strength often follows higher US PPI prints, impacting this major currency pair.
BTCUSD: Crypto assets sometimes act as inflation hedges during periods of accelerating producer prices.
Month
PPI
AAPL (direction)
May 2025
147.68
Stable
Aug 2025
149.67
Up
Nov 2025
150.71
Down
Jan 2026
152.17
Down
Since 2020, AAPL's share price has shown sensitivity to PPI spikes, with margin concerns weighing during periods of rapid producer cost inflation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest US Producer Price Index reading indicate?
The January 2026 PPI of 152.17 signals ongoing producer cost inflation, with the fastest monthly gain since August 2025.
How does the PPI impact financial markets?
Higher PPI readings often lead to increased bond yields, a stronger dollar, and volatility in equities and crypto assets.
What is the focus of this report?
This report analyzes the US Producer Price Index's latest trend, key drivers, and implications for markets and policy.
US producer cost inflation remains a central risk for markets and policymakers as 2026 unfolds.
Updated 2/27/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, January 2026 release
Sigmanomics database, PPI historical series
Federal Reserve policy statements, 2025–2026
Economic Calendar - US Events
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.3
5.3
5.73
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
-
3.3
1.4
2.55
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-
2.6
0.2
1.80
Medium
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
-
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
-
52.9
54
54.00
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
-
50.4
52.4
52.80
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
-
3.2
3.4
3.47
Low
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
37
39
40
38.50
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
-
54.6
55
55.10
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2
2.5
2.7
2.80
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
76.3
76
76
76.08
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
2
1.9
2
2.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.13
Medium
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-71
-119
-90
-85.17
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
198
207
215
208.33
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0.4
0
-0.1
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.25
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1884
1903
1890
1883.17
High
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
7.7
-3.7
1
4.35
High
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
-
0
-0.1
-0.10
Medium
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
12.6
-8.8
-2
-1.65
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
205
211.5
215
212.58
High
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
-0.029
5.594
-0.2
0.86
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
3.391
-3.831
-2.2
-2.26
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
8.977
7.702
4
6.29
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
-
47.9
47.4
46.90
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.35
4.14
4.21
4.23
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
5.1
0.7
-1.6
1.40
High
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.23
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.4
3
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
-
2.6
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Current Account
-226.4
-249.2
-238.4
-232.40
Medium
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.45
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.3
3.3
3
3.27
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.63
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.25
High
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
5.27
-2.8
-2
-2.64
Medium
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-145
-173
-150
-147.50
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-145
-173
-144.5
-144.75
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
800
710
710.00
High
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.69
0.69
Medium
15:00
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
High
13:30
US
CPI
324.05
324.12
323.8
323.61
High
13:30
US
CPI s.a
326.03
325.031
325.7
325.87
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.60
High
13:30
US
Building Permits
1.411
1.415
1.412
2.81
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99.5
99
99.5
99.50
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn
13.28
1.55
13.1
13.19
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat
1.68
2.13
1.65
1.67
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy
3.29
0.32
3.28
3.29
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
54
52.9
53.5
53.50
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
52.4
50.4
50.5
50.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.17
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
54.6
54.2
54.30
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.32
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.63
Medium
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.60
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts
1.246
1.306
1.33
1.29
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-4.6
1.2
0.8
-1.90
Medium
13:30
US
Building Permits
6.4
-2.3
0.8
2.20
Medium
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
13
6
-10
-4.75
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.53
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-8
-2
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
37
50
64
63.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
50
56
60
61.00
High
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
4.23
9.24
10
7.12
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
4.23
9.24
10.1
7.17
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
2.7
2.7
3.13
Medium
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.30
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-119
-38
-114
-109.17
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
3
3.95
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
208
200
210
203.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1914
1858
1900
1893.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
211.75
219
210.75
208.33
High
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
1
-0.45
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-29.4
-48.1
-58.9
-44.15
Medium
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
10:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
7.702
5.845
2.9
5.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.831
-1.934
1.1
1.04
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
5.594
4.977
2.2
3.26
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.146
7.449
7.6
7.37
High
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.25
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.161
2.973
2.99
3.08
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
54.4
52.6
52.2
53.30
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.6
55.25
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
-1.3
0.2
-1.2
-1.25
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
52
48.9
49
50.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
64.3
65.4
64.9
64.60
High
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
54.4
52.6
52.3
53.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
56
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
52
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
64.3
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.50
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
41
-29
47
44.00
High
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-2.8
1.7
1.2
0.56
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.7
54.2
53
52.70
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.5
54.1
52.9
52.52
Low
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
16
15.6
15.7
15.85
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
2.7
3
3
3.43
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
-
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
-
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
-
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
-
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
-
52.6
52
53.05
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44.9
44
44.1
44.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.7
47.4
47.2
47.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58.5
59
58.75
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.2
48.3
48.10
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
51.8
51.75
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.6
4.7
4.72
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
69
6
5.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
-
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-
-5
-10
-10.75
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-
-5
-6
-0.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
64
12
13.00
High
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-38
-166
-53
-48.17
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.934
0.405
-0.9
-0.96
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
5.845
2.862
1.9
4.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
4.977
0.202
2.2
3.26
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
-
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1866
1913
1915
1908.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
218.75
217
224.25
221.83
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
199
215
220
213.33
High
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
0.1
-2.5
-4
-1.95
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-3.3
-2.3
-2
-2.65
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
43.5
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
1.8
0.9
1.30
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.20
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
436.7
435.2
435.8
436.25
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
Monday, December 29, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-166
-167
-168
-163.17
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.9
-10.4
-2.5
-6.70
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.202
1.712
0.4
1.46
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.862
4.808
1.1
3.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.405
-1.274
-2.4
-2.46
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
3.3
2.4
1
2.15
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
2.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.00
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0.5
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
217.5
219
216.58
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
214
224
223
216.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1923
1885
1900
1893.17
High
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-11
-14
-3
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.71
0.71
High
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-6
-4
1
-2.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-7
-15
-7
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
89.1
92.9
91
90.05
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.1
0.9
1.15
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
-
1.5
1
1.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2.2
1.9
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.4
0
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
1.6
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
76
75.9
75.98
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.13
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
75.9
77.2
77.28
Low
13:55
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.6
0.3
0.25
Low
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.20
Medium
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
2.8
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
4.4
0.2
1
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
4.6
7.5
7.4
6.00
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
-1.5
0.1
-0.8
-1.15
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.25
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
-1.85
High
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.5
1.1
-0.1
0.20
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
54.6
51
55
55.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.28
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.13
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.13
4.11
4.2
4.22
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
0.5
1.5
-4.8
-1.80
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.4
51.1
50.7
51.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
52.9
51
53.4
53.40
High
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.23
Medium
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
US
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
17.5
173.2
122.7
70.10
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
1
8
6
3.50
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-3
18
11
4.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-167
-177
-169
-164.17
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1897
1830
1930
1923.17
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.2
-1.7
3
3.35
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
217.5
217
218.5
216.08
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
224
237
225
218.33
High
13:30
US
Current Account
-
-251.3
-250
-244.00
Medium
13:30
US
CPI
324.12
324.8
325.13
324.94
High
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3
3
2.88
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3
3.1
3.00
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
4.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-1.16
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
2.26
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-2.84
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.23
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.25
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.60
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
51.95
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.63
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.10
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
52.95
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.90
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.28
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
2.25
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.18
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.82
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
51.00
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
44.25
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.43
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.35
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
2.98
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.33
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.35
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US Producer Price Index Rises Sharply in January 2026 The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. In January 2026, the index reached 152.17, up 0.70% from December's 151.47, reflecting the fastest monthly increase since August 2025. This data was released on February 27, 2026. The rise in producer prices signals persistent inflationary pressures in the supply chain, driven primarily by higher energy and intermediate goods costs. Market analysts note that this acceleration could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation without slowing economic growth. JPMorgan economists commented that the sustained climb in producer costs suggests upstream inflation remains a key risk for consumer prices. As one analyst put it, “The January surge in producer prices underscores ongoing supply-side constraints that may keep inflation elevated in the near term.”
January's PPI print of 152.17 outpaces December's 151.47 and the 12-month average of 149.60. The index has notched its largest monthly gain since August 2025, when it rose 1.44 points. Over the past six months, the PPI has climbed steadily, with only a brief pause in September 2025.
The current level is the highest since the series began tracking this methodology. The trend line remains upward, with no sign of reversal in producer cost pressures.