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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 0.4% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 0.4% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.3% from July's 0.1% reading. The reading matched the 0.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.49%. The reading is in the 53rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.4% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.4% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.61%, ranging from 0% to 1.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.5%, down from the prior three at 0.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.42%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.97%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - US
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About Producer Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
US Producer Price Index MoM rose 0.400000% in August, matching estimates and up from July’s 0.100000%. The increase signals a notable acceleration in producer inflation compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy decisions. Updated 9/10/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.95 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -1.12 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.84 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 174.4 | 146.3 | 109.78 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.3 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.433 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.31 | 1.31 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1774 | 1780 | 1785.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 208.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 47.4 | 30.5 | 30.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 206 | 206 | 206.13 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 40 | 49 | 48.00 | Low | |
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.4 | 76.40 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.10 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |