The US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM for November 2025 registered a 0.00% change, marking a pause after modest increases in the prior two months. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects inventory levels excluding the volatile auto sector, providing a clearer view of retail stock trends. The flat reading contrasts with the 0.30% consensus estimate and October’s 0.10% gain, signaling a cautious stance among retailers amid uncertain demand and cost pressures.

Drivers this month

• Inventory buildup stalled as retailers balanced supply chain normalization with demand uncertainty.
• Consumer spending growth slowed, limiting the need for additional stock accumulation.
• Rising input costs and tighter credit conditions discouraged aggressive inventory expansion.

Policy pulse

The reading sits below the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation target zone, reflecting subdued inventory investment consistent with ongoing monetary tightening. The Fed’s recent rate hikes have increased borrowing costs, dampening retailer enthusiasm for stockpiling.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: US Treasury yields edged slightly lower, with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points, while the USD index remained steady. Equity markets showed muted response, reflecting investor caution amid mixed economic signals.

Retail inventories excluding autos are a core macroeconomic indicator, closely tied to consumer demand, production cycles, and supply chain health. The flat November reading contrasts with the 12-month average monthly gain of approximately 0.12%, underscoring a recent deceleration in inventory accumulation.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Federal Reserve’s ongoing restrictive stance, with the federal funds rate near 5.25%, has tightened financial conditions. Higher interest rates increase carrying costs for inventories, pressuring retailers to optimize stock levels. Credit spreads have widened modestly, further constraining inventory financing.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal tightening and reduced stimulus measures have tempered disposable income growth. The government budget deficit narrowed slightly in Q3 2025, limiting fiscal support to consumer spending and indirectly affecting retail inventory demand.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Lingering supply chain disruptions from geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia continue to inject uncertainty. Tariff adjustments and shipping delays have made inventory planning more complex, encouraging cautious stock management.

Inventory levels have shown less volatility than the broader retail sales figures, reflecting a cautious approach to stock management. The flat reading may also signal improved supply chain efficiency, reducing the need for excess inventories.

Drivers this month

• Supply chain normalization reduced the need for safety stock.
• Consumer demand growth slowed amid inflationary pressures.
• Higher financing costs discouraged inventory expansion.

Policy pulse

The flat reading aligns with the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, reflecting restrained inventory investment consistent with inflation control efforts.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The USD index held steady, while short-term Treasury yields declined slightly, signaling cautious optimism among fixed income investors.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of retail inventories ex autos will depend on consumer spending resilience, supply chain developments, and monetary policy adjustments. Three scenarios emerge:

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Consumer demand rebounds strongly in Q1 2026, prompting a 0.30%-0.50% monthly inventory build.
• Supply chains fully normalize, reducing costs and encouraging stock accumulation.
• Monetary policy eases as inflation moderates, lowering financing costs.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Inventory growth remains flat to modestly positive (0.00%-0.20%) as demand and supply chain factors balance out.
• Monetary policy remains restrictive but stable, maintaining cautious retailer behavior.
• Fiscal policy remains neutral, with no significant stimulus or tightening.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• Consumer spending weakens due to inflation and geopolitical shocks, leading to inventory drawdowns (-0.10% to -0.30%).
• Supply chain disruptions re-emerge, increasing costs and uncertainty.
• Financial conditions tighten further, increasing inventory carrying costs.

Retailers and policymakers should monitor these dynamics closely, as inventory trends often presage shifts in production, employment, and inflation pressures.

The November 2025 US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM reading of 0.00% signals a pause in inventory growth amid a complex macroeconomic environment. While not alarming, the miss versus expectations highlights cautious retailer sentiment shaped by monetary tightening, fiscal restraint, and geopolitical uncertainties. Historical context shows this is a moderate slowdown rather than a sharp contraction, consistent with a maturing economic cycle.

Financial markets’ muted response reflects balanced risks, with inflation and growth concerns offsetting hopes for supply chain improvements. Going forward, inventory trends will be a key barometer for consumer demand and inflationary pressures, informing Federal Reserve policy decisions and fiscal planning.

Investors should watch for shifts in retail inventory data as an early indicator of economic momentum, alongside core inflation and employment metrics.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM

Retail inventories ex autos influence sectors tied to consumer demand, supply chains, and financial conditions. Markets tracking this indicator often reflect shifts in economic momentum and inflation expectations. The following symbols historically correlate with inventory trends and are likely to react to future prints:

• SPY – Tracks broad US equity market sentiment sensitive to retail sector health.
• USDCAD – Reflects commodity-linked currency movements influenced by US consumer demand.
• BTCUSD – Cryptocurrency often reacts to macroeconomic risk sentiment shifts.
• WMT – Retail giant sensitive to inventory and consumer spending trends.
• EURUSD – Major currency pair reflecting global risk appetite and US economic data impact.

Insight: Retail Inventories Ex Autos vs. SPY Since 2020

Since 2020, monthly changes in US Retail Inventories Ex Autos have shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with SPY returns. Periods of inventory buildup often precede equity rallies, reflecting optimism about consumer demand. Conversely, inventory drawdowns have coincided with market corrections or risk-off episodes. This relationship underscores the indicator’s value as a leading economic signal for equity investors.

FAQs

What is the significance of the US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM data?

This indicator measures monthly changes in retail inventories excluding autos, providing insight into consumer demand and supply chain conditions. It helps gauge economic momentum and inflation pressures.

How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?

The flat 0.00% reading is below the recent 0.30% peak in September and the 12-month average of 0.12%, indicating a slowdown but no contraction in inventories.

What are the main risks affecting retail inventories currently?

Key risks include monetary tightening raising financing costs, fiscal restraint limiting consumer spending, and geopolitical disruptions impacting supply chains.

Final Takeaway: The November 2025 flat retail inventories ex autos reading signals cautious retailer behavior amid tightening financial conditions and uncertain demand. This pause warrants close monitoring as a bellwether for economic growth and inflation trends.

Author: Jane Doe, Senior Economic Analyst

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/25/25