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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AlbaniaAlbania Balance of Trade climbed to -48B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Albania Balance of Trade climbed to -48B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.2B from May's -48.2B reading. The reading matched the -47B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -44.53B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -46.15B, vs -42.25B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 27th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-48
Actual
-47
Consensus
-48.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.75 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -47.08
Actual: -48
Error: +0.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Albania) was reported at -48.00 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -47.00 billion by 1.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -48.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -44.66 billion, ranging from -53.00 billion to -31.00 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -46.77 billion, down from the prior three at -40.33 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.95 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 6.46 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -43.67 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.75 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AL
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About Balance of Trade — Albania
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -48 B, consensus -47 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -48.2 B. Before that (Apr 2026): -44.1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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