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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AlbaniaAlbania Balance of Trade climbed to -44.1B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Albania Balance of Trade climbed to -44.1B in April 2026, released May 2026, up 3.9B from March's -48B reading. The reading matched the -46B consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.1B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -38.67B, vs -48B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 37th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-44.1
Actual
-46
Consensus
-48
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.25 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -46
Actual: -44.1
Error: -1.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Albania) was reported at -44.10 billion in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -46.00 billion by 1.90 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -48.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -43.46 billion, ranging from -53.00 billion to -31.00 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -37.37 billion, up from the prior three at -48.33 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.81 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.73 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -42.70 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.25 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AL
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About Balance of Trade — Albania
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -44.1 B, consensus -46 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -48 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -37 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.