November 2025 Inflation Rate MoM for AL: A Detailed Analysis
The latest inflation rate month-over-month (MoM) for AL, released on November 10, 2025, shows a significant moderation to 0.10%, well below the 0.20% consensus and sharply down from October’s 0.70%. This report draws on the Sigmanomics database to contextualize this figure against recent trends and macroeconomic conditions. We explore the implications for monetary policy, fiscal stance, external risks, and financial markets, offering a forward-looking perspective on AL’s inflation trajectory.
Table of Contents
The inflation rate MoM for AL in November 2025 slowed markedly to 0.10%, down from 0.70% in October and below the 0.20% forecast. This deceleration follows a volatile pattern over the past year, with inflation swinging between -0.30% and 0.70% monthly. The 12-month average MoM inflation stands near 0.22%, indicating that November’s print is below trend.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.12 percentage points (pp), a slight easing from prior months.
- Energy prices stabilized, subtracting -0.05 pp, reflecting global oil price steadiness.
- Food inflation remained subdued, adding just 0.03 pp.
Policy pulse
The current inflation rate sits below the central bank’s 2% annual target pace when annualized, signaling less immediate pressure on monetary tightening. The Bank of AL may adopt a wait-and-see approach, balancing inflation risks against growth concerns.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ALL currency weakened 0.30% against the USD in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields fell 5 basis points, reflecting market relief at lower inflation pressures.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for the inflation print. AL’s GDP growth slowed to 1.80% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 2.30% in Q2, while unemployment remained steady at 7.20%. Wage growth moderated to 3.10% YoY, easing cost-push inflation pressures.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Bank of AL has maintained its policy rate at 3.50% since August 2025, signaling a cautious stance amid mixed inflation signals. Credit growth slowed to 4.50% YoY, and lending standards tightened slightly, reflecting cautious financial conditions.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government running a 3.20% of GDP deficit in Q3 2025. Increased infrastructure spending supports growth but may add mild inflationary pressure in the medium term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ALL/USD exchange rate dipped 0.30%, while 2-year yields declined 5 basis points, reflecting market expectations of a slower pace of monetary tightening. Breakeven inflation rates for 5-year bonds also edged lower by 3 basis points.
This chart highlights a reversal of the two-month inflation surge, signaling easing price pressures. The trend suggests a potential stabilization phase, reducing near-term risks of overheating but keeping inflation above deflationary territory.
Looking ahead, inflation in AL faces a mix of upside and downside risks. The base case anticipates inflation stabilizing around 0.15% MoM in the coming months, supported by moderate wage growth and steady energy prices.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected wage gains and renewed commodity price shocks push inflation above 0.40% MoM.
- Monetary policy tightens aggressively, but inflation remains sticky.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation hovers near 0.15% MoM, consistent with moderate economic growth and stable financial conditions.
- Monetary policy remains on hold, with gradual normalization expected in 2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Demand softens due to external shocks or fiscal tightening, pushing inflation below 0% MoM.
- Risk of mild deflationary pressures emerges, complicating policy response.
November’s inflation print for AL signals a cooling in price pressures after a volatile 2025. While the central bank can afford patience, vigilance remains crucial amid external uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility. Fiscal policy’s expansionary tilt supports growth but may limit disinflation. Financial markets have priced in a slower pace of tightening, but any unexpected shocks could quickly shift sentiment.
Structural trends, including gradual productivity gains and demographic shifts, continue to shape AL’s inflation outlook. Policymakers must balance these long-run factors with cyclical dynamics to maintain price stability and support sustainable growth.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
The inflation rate MoM for AL is closely watched by currency traders, bond investors, and equity markets. Key symbols historically sensitive to inflation shifts include:
- USDEUR – The EUR/USD pair often reacts to inflation surprises in emerging markets like AL, influencing carry trade flows.
- ALB – AL’s leading stock index, sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy changes.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often moves inversely to inflation expectations and real yields.
- ALLUSD – The Albanian lek’s USD exchange rate directly reflects inflation and policy shifts.
- ALX – A sector ETF focused on inflation-sensitive industries within AL’s market.
Inflation Rate MoM vs. ALLUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, the inflation rate MoM in AL has shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with the ALLUSD exchange rate. Periods of rising inflation generally coincide with lek depreciation, reflecting market concerns over purchasing power. Notably, spikes in inflation during mid-2021 and late 2023 corresponded with sharp ALLUSD declines, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to inflation dynamics.
FAQs
- What is the latest Inflation Rate MoM for AL?
- The most recent inflation rate MoM for AL is 0.10% as of November 2025, down from 0.70% in October.
- How does the November inflation print affect AL’s monetary policy?
- The lower inflation reading reduces immediate pressure on the central bank to tighten rates, suggesting a cautious approach in the near term.
- What are the main risks to AL’s inflation outlook?
- Upside risks include wage shocks and commodity price spikes; downside risks involve demand weakness and external shocks.
Key takeaway: AL’s inflation is cooling sharply, easing near-term policy pressures but leaving uncertainty amid external and structural risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 inflation rate MoM for AL at 0.10% marks a sharp slowdown from October’s 0.70% and is below the 12-month average of 0.22%. This deceleration follows a rebound from negative inflation months in mid-2025, including June (-0.30%) and July (-0.20%).
Comparing the current print with the past six months reveals a clear volatility pattern: August (-0.10%), September (0.30%), October (0.70%), and now November (0.10%). This suggests inflationary pressures are easing after a brief spike in early autumn.