The latest data from the Sigmanomics database shows AO’s foreign exchange reserves at 15.30 billion AOA as of November 18, 2025. This figure matches market expectations and reflects a slight recovery after a period of stagnation and mild depletion during mid-2025. The reserves remain a key buffer against external shocks and currency volatility amid a complex global economic environment.

Drivers this month

• Stable oil export revenues contributed positively, supporting FX inflows.
• Moderate capital inflows from foreign direct investment (FDI) helped replenish reserves.
• Central bank interventions to smooth currency fluctuations limited reserve drawdowns.

Policy pulse

The central bank’s cautious monetary tightening, including a 25 basis point hike in the policy rate last month, aims to curb inflationary pressures without stifling growth. The reserve level aligns with the bank’s target range to maintain external liquidity and currency stability.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The AOA currency appreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour of the release, reflecting market confidence in the reserve build-up. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, signaling eased risk premia.

AO’s macroeconomic fundamentals underpin the recent reserve dynamics. GDP growth is projected at 3.80% for 2025, supported by robust commodity exports and improving domestic demand. Inflation remains elevated but contained at 7.20% year-on-year, prompting the central bank’s measured rate hikes.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Monetary tightening has stabilized inflation expectations and supported the currency. The policy rate now stands at 9.50%, up from 9.25% in October. Banking sector liquidity remains adequate, with credit growth steady at 6.50% YoY.

Fiscal policy & government budget

The government’s fiscal stance remains prudent, with a budget deficit forecast of 3.20% of GDP in 2025, down from 3.80% in 2024. Improved tax collection and controlled public spending have helped reduce reliance on external borrowing, indirectly supporting reserve accumulation.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

AO faces ongoing risks from fluctuating oil prices and regional geopolitical tensions. Recent instability in neighboring countries could disrupt trade routes and investor sentiment. These factors underscore the importance of maintaining adequate reserves as a shock absorber.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The AOA/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.30% post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, signaling improved market sentiment. Breakeven inflation rates held steady, reflecting confidence in monetary policy.

Looking ahead, AO’s foreign exchange reserves face a mixed outlook shaped by global and domestic factors. The central bank’s policy stance and fiscal discipline provide a solid foundation, but external uncertainties persist.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Higher oil prices and stable export demand boost FX inflows.
• Continued fiscal consolidation reduces external borrowing.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, improving investor confidence.
• Reserves rise above 16 billion AOA by mid-2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate commodity prices sustain export revenues.
• Monetary policy remains cautious but effective.
• Reserves fluctuate around 15.30–15.50 billion AOA.
• Currency remains stable with manageable volatility.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Commodity price shocks reduce export earnings.
• Escalation of regional geopolitical risks disrupts trade.
• Increased capital outflows pressure reserves below 15 billion AOA.
• Currency depreciation and inflationary pressures intensify.

AO’s foreign exchange reserves have shown resilience in November 2025, supported by stable macro fundamentals and prudent policy. The modest increase to 15.30 billion AOA signals cautious optimism but also highlights the need for vigilance amid external uncertainties. Maintaining reserve adequacy will be crucial for currency stability and economic confidence in the medium term.

Key Markets Likely to React to Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign exchange reserves data often influence currency pairs, sovereign bonds, and equity markets sensitive to external liquidity and risk sentiment. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with AO’s reserves movements and are likely to react to future updates:

• AOAUSD – Directly reflects AO currency strength linked to reserve levels.
• ANG – AO’s leading energy stock, sensitive to export-driven FX flows.
• BTCUSD – Crypto market sentiment often shifts with global liquidity conditions.
• USDAOA – Inverse of AOAUSD, useful for hedging currency exposure.
• AFR – Financial sector stock sensitive to domestic liquidity and credit conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are Foreign Exchange Reserves in AO?

Foreign exchange reserves are assets held by AO’s central bank in foreign currencies, used to back liabilities and influence monetary policy.

How do Foreign Exchange Reserves impact AO’s economy?

Reserves provide a buffer against external shocks, support currency stability, and influence investor confidence in AO’s financial markets.

What factors influence changes in AO’s Foreign Exchange Reserves?

Key factors include export earnings, capital flows, monetary policy actions, fiscal balance, and external geopolitical risks.

Takeaway: AO’s foreign exchange reserves are stabilizing after mid-year pressures, but external risks require continued policy vigilance to safeguard economic resilience.