Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Balance of Trade climbed to 2,194M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Argentina Balance of Trade climbed to 2,194M in June 2026, released July 2026, up 2,191M from May's 3M reading. The print exceeded the 2,060M consensus by 134M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1,636.33M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 3,107.5M, vs 1,766M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2194
Actual
2060
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±450.5 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2,623.75
Actual: 2,194
Error: +429.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Argentina) was reported at 2,194.00 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2,060.00 million by 134.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,779.30 million, ranging from 788.00 million to 3,504.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2,803.00 million, up from the prior three at 1,757.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 895.61 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 593.03 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 1,670.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 450.50 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - AR
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Argentina
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2,194 M, consensus 2,060 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 3,504 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 2,711 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP