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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Balance of Trade climbed to 2,711M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Argentina Balance of Trade climbed to 2,711M in April 2026, released May 2026, up 188M from March's 2,523M reading. The print exceeded the 1,760M consensus by 951M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
2711
Actual
1760
Consensus
2523
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±446.88 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1,786
Actual: 2,711
Error: -925
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Argentina) was reported at 2,711.00 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1,760.00 million by 951.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 2,523.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,360.90 million, ranging from 608.00 million to 2,711.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1,828.67 million, up from the prior three at 1,406.33 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 725.16 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 675.79 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 1,578.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 446.88 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AR
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About Balance of Trade — Argentina
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2,711 M, consensus 1,760 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2,523 M. Before that (Feb 2026): 788 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.45) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.