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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Balance of Trade climbed to 3,504M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Argentina Balance of Trade climbed to 3,504M in May 2026, released June 2026, up 791M from April's 2,713M reading. The print exceeded the 2,200M consensus by 1,304M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 2,617M, vs 1,387.5M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 32 months.
Latest Release
3504
Actual
2200
Consensus
2713
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±479 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2,675.5
Actual: 3,504
Error: -828.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Argentina) was reported at 3,504.00 million in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2,200.00 million by 1,304.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 2,713.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,650.50 million, ranging from 788.00 million to 3,504.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2,334.33 million, up from the prior three at 1,761.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 919.02 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 656.51 million).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 479.00 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 20, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AR
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About Balance of Trade — Argentina
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3,504 M, consensus 2,200 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2,711 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 2,523 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AR Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | AR | Inflation Rate MoM | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.10 | Low | |
| 19:00 | AR | Inflation Rate YoY | 33.6 | 33.2 | 33.45 | Low | |
| 19:00 | AR | CPI YoY | 33.6 | 33.2 | 33.40 | Low | |
| 19:00 | AR | CPI MoM | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.10 | Low | |