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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Balance of Trade fell to 2,115M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Argentina Balance of Trade fell to 2,115M in July 2026, released August 2026, down 79M from June's 2,194M reading. The print exceeded the 1,850M consensus by 265M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 2,849M, vs 2,007.33M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2115
Actual
1850
Consensus
2194
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±450.5 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2,209.5
Actual: 2,115
Error: +94.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Argentina) was reported at 2,115.00 million in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1,850.00 million by 265.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 2,194.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,892.00 million, ranging from 788.00 million to 3,504.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2,604.33 million, up from the prior three at 1,828.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 859.11 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 557.93 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 1,559.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 450.50 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AR
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About Balance of Trade — Argentina
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2,115 M, consensus 1,850 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2,194 M. Before that (May 2026): 3,504 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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