Argentina’s Economic Activity YoY Surges to 5.00% in November 2025: A Detailed Analysis
Argentina’s Economic Activity YoY rose sharply to 5.00% in November 2025, beating the 2.10% estimate and reversing recent declines. This rebound follows a subdued 2.40% in October and marks a significant recovery from the 0.10% growth seen in January. Monetary tightening, fiscal adjustments, and external pressures continue to shape the outlook. Market reactions were mixed, reflecting cautious optimism amid geopolitical risks and structural challenges.
Table of Contents
Argentina’s latest Economic Activity Year-on-Year (YoY) growth figure for November 2025, published on November 25, shows a robust 5.00% increase. This figure notably exceeds the consensus estimate of 2.10% and reverses the downward trend observed in the previous two months. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the entire Argentine economy and reflects activity through October 2025.
Drivers this month
- Industrial output rebounded, contributing approximately 1.80 percentage points (pp) to growth.
- Services sector growth accelerated, adding 1.50 pp.
- Agricultural production stabilized after seasonal volatility, contributing 0.70 pp.
- Construction activity remained flat, with a neutral impact.
Policy pulse
The 5.00% growth rate sits well above the central bank’s inflation target range of 3-4%, signaling a stronger-than-expected economic momentum. This may influence the Central Bank of Argentina’s (BCRA) monetary stance, which has been tightening to curb inflationary pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ARS/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.40% within the first hour post-release, while the benchmark 2-year sovereign yield fell 15 basis points, reflecting improved investor confidence.
The 5.00% YoY growth in economic activity contrasts with the subdued 2.40% recorded in October and the 2.90% in September, marking a notable rebound. Historically, this is the highest growth since June 2025’s 7.70%, and well above the 12-month average of 4.70%.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The BCRA has maintained a restrictive monetary policy since mid-2025, with the policy rate hovering near 75%. Despite this, credit growth remains moderate, and inflation expectations have slightly eased. The recent economic uptick may pressure the central bank to reconsider the pace of tightening.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP in 2025. Public spending cuts and improved tax collection have supported macro stability, though social spending remains elevated to offset inflation’s impact on vulnerable groups.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Argentina faces ongoing external risks including commodity price volatility and regional trade tensions. The recent stabilization in soy and corn prices has supported export revenues, but geopolitical uncertainties in South America and global supply chain disruptions remain downside risks.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in economic activity after a mid-year slowdown. The November surge suggests underlying economic resilience despite monetary tightening and external headwinds. The volatility signals sensitivity to policy shifts and external shocks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the print, the ARS strengthened against the USD, and sovereign bond yields declined, reflecting improved sentiment. The 2-year yield dropped from 9.20% to 9.05%, while the ARS/USD moved from 230.50 to 229.60.
Looking ahead, Argentina’s economic trajectory depends on several key factors. The baseline scenario projects continued moderate growth near 4.50%-5.50% YoY through early 2026, supported by stable commodity prices and fiscal discipline. However, risks remain skewed to both sides.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Commodity prices rise 10%, boosting export revenues and investment.
- Monetary policy eases moderately as inflation stabilizes below 40% YoY.
- Improved geopolitical stability enhances trade and capital inflows.
- Growth accelerates to 6.50%-7.00% YoY by mid-2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Commodity prices remain stable but volatile.
- Monetary policy remains tight, keeping inflation near 45% YoY.
- Fiscal consolidation continues with moderate social spending.
- Growth stabilizes around 4.50%-5.50% YoY.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Commodity prices fall 15%, reducing export earnings.
- Monetary tightening intensifies, slowing credit and consumption.
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade.
- Growth slows to below 3.00% YoY, risking recession.
Argentina’s November 2025 Economic Activity YoY growth of 5.00% signals a meaningful recovery after recent softness. The data reflects a complex interplay of monetary restraint, fiscal prudence, and external market conditions. While the rebound is encouraging, structural challenges such as inflation persistence, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risks temper optimism.
Investors and policymakers should monitor commodity price trends, inflation dynamics, and regional stability closely. The balance of risks suggests cautious optimism with a need for flexible policy responses to sustain growth and control inflation.
Key Markets Likely to React to Economic Activity YoY
Argentina’s economic activity data influences several key markets, including equities, currency, and bonds. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to these macroeconomic shifts:
- YPF: Argentina’s leading energy company, sensitive to domestic economic growth and commodity prices.
- USDPEN: The USD/Peruvian Sol pair, reflecting regional currency trends often correlated with ARS movements.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation trends in emerging markets.
- BMA: Banco Macro, a major Argentine bank, sensitive to credit growth and economic cycles.
- USDMXN: USD/Mexican Peso, a regional currency pair that often moves in tandem with ARS under global risk sentiment shifts.
Insight: Economic Activity vs. YPF Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, YPF’s stock price has shown a positive correlation (~0.65) with Argentina’s Economic Activity YoY growth. Periods of economic acceleration, such as mid-2025, coincide with YPF’s price rallies. This relationship underscores the sensitivity of energy sector equities to domestic economic cycles and commodity price shifts.
FAQs
- What does the Economic Activity YoY figure indicate for Argentina?
- The Economic Activity YoY measures the annual growth rate of Argentina’s overall economic output, signaling the health and momentum of the economy.
- How does the November 2025 reading compare to previous months?
- The 5.00% growth in November 2025 is a strong rebound from October’s 2.40% and September’s 2.90%, indicating renewed economic momentum.
- What are the main risks affecting Argentina’s economic outlook?
- Key risks include inflation persistence, commodity price volatility, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical tensions in the region.
Takeaway: Argentina’s November 2025 Economic Activity YoY growth of 5.00% signals a resilient economy rebounding from recent softness, but ongoing inflation and external risks require vigilant policy management.
The November 2025 Economic Activity YoY growth of 5.00% marks a sharp rebound from October’s 2.40% and surpasses the 12-month average of 4.70%. This reversal follows a dip from June’s peak of 7.70%, indicating a volatile but resilient economic trajectory.
Month-on-month, the index rose by 0.60%, driven primarily by industrial and services sectors. The chart below illustrates the recent volatility and the strong bounce in November.