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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Economic Activity YoY fell to -1.7% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Argentina Economic Activity YoY fell to -1.7% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.3% from July's -1.4% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 2.0%. Economic Activity YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Economic Activity YoY averaged 0.65%, vs 3.55% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.7
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.3
Actual: -1.7
Error: +1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Activity YoY (Argentina) was reported at -1.7% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 2%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.26%, ranging from -1.7% to 5.5% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.13%, down from the prior three at 3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.36%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.26%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Economic Activity YoY has averaged -1.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Economic Activity YoY - AR
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About Economic Activity YoY — Argentina
DEFINITION
Economic Activity YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in economic activity over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of an economy, allowing businesses and investors to make informed decisions. By comparing current economic activity to the same period in the previous year, this indicator helps to identify trends and potential risks, making it a crucial tool for assessing the performance of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1.7 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -1.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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