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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Retail Sales YoY fell to 13.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Argentina Retail Sales YoY fell to 13.4% in June 2026, released August 2026, down 19.7% from May's 33.1% reading. The reading missed the 17.0% consensus by 3.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 21.3%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 22.85%, vs 14.58% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
13.4
Actual
17
Consensus
33.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±11.79 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 26.18
Actual: 13.4
Error: +12.78
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Argentina) was reported at 13.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 17% by 3.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 33.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 17.82%, ranging from 3.6% to 33.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 19.7%, up from the prior three at 13.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.47%) is lower than the prior year (σ 54.24%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 87.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 11.79%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 23, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - AR
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About Retail Sales YoY — Argentina
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 23.7 %, consensus 17 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 33.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AR Events
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | AR | Consumer Confidence | 40.23 | 41 | 42.36 | Low | |
| 17:30 | AR | Leading Indicator MoM | -0.72 | -1.4 | -0.96 | Low | |
| 19:00 | AR | Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 19:00 | AR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.90 | Low | |
| 19:00 | AR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Low | |
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | AR | Balance of Trade | 2115 | 2055 | 2707.00 | Low | |