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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Retail Sales YoY climbed to 24.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Argentina Retail Sales YoY climbed to 24.3% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 1.3% from July's 23.0% reading. The reading missed the 27.0% consensus by 2.7%. Retail Sales YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 18.2%, vs 16.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
24.3
Actual
27
Consensus
23
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 29.1
Actual: 24.3
Error: +4.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Argentina) was reported at 24.3% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 27% by 2.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 23%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 18.08%, ranging from 3.6% to 33.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 20.23%, up from the prior three at 16.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.55%) is lower than the prior year (σ 45.63%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 84.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - AR
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About Retail Sales YoY — Argentina
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 24.3 %, consensus 27 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 23 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 23.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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