The latest data from the Sigmanomics database shows Argentina’s retail sales YoY growth for November 2025 at 18.90%, down from 25.10% in October and below the 20.00% consensus estimate. This decline continues a marked slowdown from the extraordinary 134.80% growth recorded in January 2025, reflecting a cooling consumer environment amid persistent inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Drivers this month

• Inflation-adjusted consumer spending weakened amid rising prices.
• Monetary policy tightening reduced credit availability.
• External shocks, including commodity price volatility, dampened demand.

Policy pulse

Retail sales growth remains above zero but below early 2025 peaks, signaling moderation consistent with the central bank’s inflation targeting efforts. The 18.90% growth is still robust in nominal terms but reflects real purchasing power erosion.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The ARS currency depreciated 0.40% against the USD in the first hour post-release, while 2-year sovereign yields edged up 15 basis points, signaling cautious investor sentiment.

Argentina’s retail sales growth must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators. Inflation remains elevated, with the annual CPI running near 90%, eroding real incomes. The central bank has maintained a tight monetary stance, with policy rates above 70%, aiming to curb inflation and stabilize the ARS currency. Fiscal policy is contractionary, with government budget deficits narrowing to 3.50% of GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting austerity measures and reduced subsidies.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The central bank’s restrictive policy has increased borrowing costs, limiting consumer credit growth. Inflation expectations have moderated slightly but remain above the 3% target. The real interest rate environment is positive but volatile, impacting retail financing.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts have reduced public spending growth, indirectly constraining disposable income. Social transfers remain targeted but insufficient to offset inflation’s impact on lower-income households.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Commodity price swings, especially in soy and oil, have affected export revenues and government receipts. Regional geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions add to economic uncertainty, influencing consumer confidence.

Historical comparisons highlight the unusual scale of early 2025 growth, driven by base effects from 2024’s economic contraction and hyperinflation. The current reading, while lower, remains positive in nominal terms but signals weakening consumer momentum.

Drivers this month

• Base effects fading after early 2025 hyperinflation surge.
• Reduced real income growth amid persistent inflation.
• Credit tightening limiting consumer financing.

Policy pulse

The retail sales slowdown aligns with the central bank’s inflation-targeting strategy, indicating some success in cooling demand but also raising concerns about growth sustainability.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Sovereign bond yields rose modestly, reflecting increased risk premiums. The ARS weakened slightly, signaling market caution on near-term growth prospects.

Looking ahead, Argentina’s retail sales trajectory depends on several key factors. We outline three scenarios with associated probabilities:

• Bullish (25% probability): Inflation moderates faster than expected, monetary policy eases, and fiscal stimulus supports consumer spending. Retail sales rebound to 25-30% YoY growth by mid-2026.
• Base (50% probability): Inflation remains elevated but stable, monetary policy stays tight, and fiscal consolidation continues. Retail sales growth stabilizes around 15-20% YoY, reflecting nominal gains offset by real income pressures.
• Bearish (25% probability): Inflation spikes due to external shocks, currency volatility worsens, and fiscal austerity deepens. Retail sales contract or grow below 10% YoY, signaling recession risks.

Risks to the outlook include global commodity price fluctuations, political developments affecting investor confidence, and potential shifts in monetary policy. Upside risks stem from improved export revenues and successful inflation containment.

Argentina’s November 2025 retail sales YoY growth of 18.90% reflects a complex interplay of inflation, monetary tightening, and external pressures. While nominal growth remains positive, real consumer demand is under strain. The data signals a cautious environment for retailers and policymakers alike.

Structural challenges such as persistent inflation, currency instability, and fiscal constraints will shape retail dynamics in the medium term. Financial markets remain watchful, with the ARS and sovereign yields sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.

Balancing inflation control with growth support remains the central policy challenge. Retail sales trends will be a key barometer for economic health and consumer resilience in Argentina’s evolving macroeconomic landscape.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY

Argentina’s retail sales data influences several tradable markets, reflecting the country’s economic health and investor sentiment. Key symbols historically correlated include:

• YPF – Argentina’s leading energy stock, sensitive to domestic demand and economic cycles.
• USDPEN – The USD/PEN currency pair, reflecting regional currency trends linked to economic performance.
• USDARS – The USD/ARS exchange rate, directly impacted by retail sales and inflation data.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a hedge in inflationary environments affecting Argentine investors.
• GGAL – Grupo Galicia, a major Argentine bank whose stock reflects credit and consumer spending trends.

Insight: Retail Sales vs. USDARS Exchange Rate Since 2020

Since 2020, Argentina’s retail sales YoY growth has shown a strong inverse correlation with the USDARS exchange rate. Periods of retail sales acceleration often coincide with ARS depreciation, reflecting inflation-driven nominal growth. Conversely, retail sales slowdowns align with ARS stabilization efforts and tighter monetary policy. This dynamic underscores the challenge of disentangling real consumption trends from currency and inflation effects in Argentina’s volatile macroeconomic environment.

FAQs

What does the latest Argentina Retail Sales YoY data indicate?

The 18.90% YoY growth in November 2025 shows slowing nominal retail sales amid inflation and tighter financial conditions, signaling cautious consumer demand.

How does retail sales growth affect Argentina’s economy?

Retail sales reflect consumer spending, a major GDP component. Slowing growth suggests weaker domestic demand, impacting overall economic expansion and policy decisions.

What are the key risks for Argentina’s retail sector going forward?

Risks include persistent inflation, currency volatility, fiscal austerity, and external shocks that could further constrain consumer purchasing power and credit availability.

Takeaway: Argentina’s retail sales growth is moderating amid inflation and policy tightening, highlighting the delicate balance between controlling prices and sustaining consumer demand.

Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team

Updated 11/26/25

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Retail Sales YoY Argentina, November 2025 release.
2. Central Bank of Argentina, Monetary Policy Reports Q3 2025.
3. Ministry of Economy Argentina, Fiscal Data Q3 2025.
4. International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook, Latin America 2025.
5. Bloomberg, Market Reactions to Argentina Macroeconomic Data, November 2025.