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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Retail Sales YoY fell to 3.6% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Argentina Retail Sales YoY fell to 3.6% in March 2026, released May 2026, down 14.4% from February's 18.0% reading. The reading missed the 22.0% consensus by 18.4%. Retail Sales YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 18.23%, vs 17.0% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 31 months.
Latest Release
3.6
Actual
22
Consensus
18
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 25.95
Actual: 3.6
Error: +22.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.90 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Argentina) was reported at 3.6% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 22% by 18.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 18%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 25.89%, ranging from 3.6% to 66.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13.47%, down from the prior three at 19.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 16.97%) is lower than the prior year (σ 47.27%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 99.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - AR
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About Retail Sales YoY — Argentina
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -13.3 %, consensus 22 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 23.5 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 20.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.90) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.