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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustriaAustria Balance of Trade climbed to 268M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Austria Balance of Trade climbed to 268M in July 2026, released October 2026, up 297.2M from June's -29.2M reading. The print exceeded the -730M consensus by 998M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -332.35M, vs -218.47M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
268
Actual
-730
Consensus
-29.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±250.99 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -678.68
Actual: 268
Error: -946.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Austria) was reported at 268.00 million in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -730.00 million by 998.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -29.20 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -525.81 million, ranging from -1,895.60 million to 268.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -132.23 million, up from the prior three at -766.13 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 607.27 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 642.59 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -254.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 250.99 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Nov 2) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AT
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About Balance of Trade — Austria
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 268 M, consensus -730 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -29.2 M. Before that (May 2026): -635.5 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AT Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | AT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Low |
| 08:00 | AT | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.80 | Low |
| 08:00 | AT | Producer Price Index YoY | 6 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.55 | Low |
| 08:00 | AT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.10 | Low |