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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustriaAustria Balance of Trade climbed to -434.1M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Austria Balance of Trade climbed to -434.1M in April 2026, released July 2026, up 129.2M from March's -563.3M reading. The print exceeded the -620M consensus by 185.9M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -688.77M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -110.65M, vs -451.08M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-434.1
Actual
-620
Consensus
-563.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±250.99 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -501.65
Actual: -434.1
Error: -67.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Austria) was reported at -434.10 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -620.00 million by 185.90 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -563.30 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -852.71 million, ranging from -1,895.60 million to -84.60 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -766.13 million, down from the prior three at -222.47 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 622.72 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 534.73 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -192.80 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 250.99 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AT
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About Balance of Trade — Austria
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -434.1 M, consensus -620 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -563.3 M. Before that (Feb 2026): 342 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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