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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustriaAustria HICP MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Austria HICP MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.4% from June's 0.0% reading. The reading matched the -0.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.18%. Over the past 3 months, HICP MoM averaged -0.07%, vs 0.39% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.4
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP MoM (Austria) was reported at 0.5% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.23%, ranging from -0.8% to 1.1% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In September readings over the past 3 years, HICP MoM has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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HICP MoM - AT
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About HICP MoM — Austria
DEFINITION
Austria's HICP MoM rose 0.500000% in August, reversing July's -0.400000% decline. August's inflation increase signals renewed upward pressure after two months of contraction. Markets will watch upcoming ECB policy moves amid this inflation rebound. Updated 9/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AT Events
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | AT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |