Hicp Mom - AT Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Austria HICP MoM
0.5
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0
Previous
Austria’s HICP MoM inflation for December 2025 came in at 0.40%, slightly below November’s 0.50%, signaling a modest deceleration but continued expansion above the 50 threshold. This 0.10 percentage point decline suggests easing price pressures while inflation remains elevated relative to the 12-month average of 0.30%. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious policy stance as markets price in persistent inflation risks amid energy volatility and wage growth. Updated 12/2/25
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Austria’s Latest HICP MoM Inflation: December 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key takeaways: Austria’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 0.40% MoM in December, slightly below November’s 0.50%. This marks a moderation but remains above the 12-month average of 0.30%. Core inflation pressures persist amid energy price volatility and supply chain adjustments. Monetary policy remains cautious as inflation stays above the ECB’s 2% target. External geopolitical risks and fiscal stimulus measures add complexity. Financial markets showed muted initial reactions, reflecting balanced uncertainty. Structural inflation drivers suggest a gradual normalization but with upside risks from wage growth and energy costs.
Austria’s December 2025 HICP MoM inflation registered a 0.40% increase, down from 0.50% in November but still elevated relative to the 12-month average of 0.30%. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing inflationary pressures in the eurozone’s core economies. The moderation suggests some easing in price pressures but not a definitive break from recent trends.
Drivers this month
Energy prices contributed approximately 0.15 percentage points, reflecting volatility in global oil and gas markets.
Services inflation, particularly in housing and transportation, added 0.12 percentage points, driven by wage growth.
Used car prices and durable goods exerted a minor downward pull (-0.05 percentage points).
Policy pulse
The 0.40% MoM increase keeps Austria’s inflation rate above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% annual target, sustaining pressure on monetary authorities. The ECB’s recent cautious stance suggests a wait-and-see approach, balancing inflation containment with growth risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/AUD dipped 0.10% in the first hour post-release, while 2-year Austrian government yields edged up 3 basis points, signaling mild market concern over persistent inflation.
The HICP MoM reading of 0.40% in December 2025 compares with a 0.50% rise in November and a 12-month average of 0.30%, indicating a slight deceleration but sustained inflationary momentum. Year-on-year inflation remains elevated at approximately 4.10%, well above the ECB’s target.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Austria’s inflation trajectory influences ECB policy decisions. The ECB’s recent rate hikes have aimed to temper inflation without triggering recession. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with 2-year yields around 2.10%, reflecting market expectations of prolonged restrictive policy.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Austria’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with government spending focused on energy subsidies and social support to offset inflation’s impact on households. The budget deficit is projected at 2.50% of GDP for 2025, slightly above the EU average, supporting domestic demand but complicating inflation control.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global energy market volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions, continues to feed into Austria’s inflation. The risk of renewed sanctions or supply interruptions remains a key downside risk to price stability.
December’s HICP MoM increase of 0.40% is a modest decline from November’s 0.50%, yet above the 12-month average of 0.30%. This suggests inflation pressures are easing but remain persistent. The chart below illustrates the monthly inflation trend over the past year, highlighting a peak of 0.70% in mid-2025 and a gradual decline since.
Comparing to historical data, the current inflation rate is higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 0.20% MoM but lower than the 2022 peak of 1.10% MoM during energy crisis spikes. This pattern reflects a transition from acute shocks to more structural inflation drivers.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Austrian 2-year government bond yield rose by 3 basis points, while EUR/AUD depreciated slightly, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Inflation-linked bond spreads widened marginally, indicating persistent inflation risk premiums.
This chart confirms a trend of moderating inflation after mid-2025 peaks but underscores ongoing upward pressure from energy and services. The data signals a transition phase, with inflation unlikely to return to pre-pandemic lows soon.
Looking ahead, Austria’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) anticipates a gradual decline in MoM inflation to 0.20–0.30% by mid-2026, driven by easing energy prices and stable wage growth. A bullish scenario (20% probability) sees inflation falling below 0.10% MoM, aided by stronger euro appreciation and subdued demand. Conversely, a bearish scenario (20% probability) projects inflation remaining above 0.50% MoM due to renewed energy shocks or wage-price spirals.
Structural & long-run trends
Long-term inflation in Austria is influenced by demographic shifts, productivity growth, and energy transition policies. The push for green energy may introduce cost pressures in the short term but reduce volatility over time. Wage growth remains a key structural driver, with collective bargaining outcomes critical to inflation persistence.
Financial markets & sentiment
Market sentiment remains mixed. Inflation-linked securities and short-term yields suggest investors expect gradual easing but remain wary of upside risks. Currency markets show moderate sensitivity, with the euro’s strength linked to ECB policy clarity and geopolitical developments.
Austria’s December 2025 HICP MoM inflation reading of 0.40% signals persistent but moderating price pressures. The data underscores the delicate balance facing policymakers between containing inflation and supporting growth. External shocks and fiscal policies will continue to shape the outlook. Market reactions suggest cautious optimism but highlight the need for vigilance amid ongoing uncertainties.
Key Markets Likely to React to HICP MoM
The HICP MoM inflation data is closely watched by bond, currency, and equity markets. Key symbols historically tracking Austria’s inflation include:
VOE – Austrian utility stocks sensitive to energy price inflation.
EURAUD – Euro-Australian dollar pair reacts to ECB policy shifts linked to inflation.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin often viewed as an inflation hedge, showing inverse correlation in risk-off periods.
DBK – Deutsche Bank shares reflect broader eurozone financial conditions influenced by inflation.
EURUSD – The euro-dollar exchange rate is a key barometer of ECB inflation outlook and monetary policy.
Indicator vs. EURAUD Since 2020
Since 2020, Austria’s HICP MoM inflation and the EURAUD currency pair have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with EURAUD depreciation, reflecting ECB tightening expectations and risk sentiment shifts. This relationship highlights the currency’s sensitivity to inflation dynamics in Austria and the broader eurozone.
Year
Avg HICP MoM (%)
EUR/AUD Avg
2020
0.10
1.62
2021
0.30
1.57
2022
0.60
1.48
2023
0.40
1.52
2024
0.30
1.54
2025
0.40
1.50
FAQs
What does Austria’s HICP MoM inflation indicate?
It measures monthly changes in consumer prices, signaling inflation trends and economic health.
How does HICP affect monetary policy?
Higher inflation readings pressure central banks to tighten policy to maintain price stability.
Why is the HICP important for investors?
It influences bond yields, currency values, and equity valuations sensitive to inflation.
Final takeaway: Austria’s inflation remains elevated but shows signs of moderation. Policymakers and markets must navigate persistent risks amid structural shifts and external uncertainties.
Author
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - AT Events
Monday, December 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
PPI YoY
-2
-2.3
-1.9
-2.53
Low
08:00
AT
PPI MoM
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.45
Low
Friday, December 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
-
44.5
44.9
44.23
High
Monday, December 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Current Account
1.5
0.7
1
2.03
Low
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.8
2
2.00
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.30
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.88
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.30
None
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-1.3
-2.4
-0.1
-0.68
Low
Friday, December 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Balance of Trade
608.9
-564
200
141.70
Low
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-0.1
-1.3
0.2
-0.68
Low
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.32
Low
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.6
-0.6
-0.1
-0.47
Low
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
0
0.3
0.18
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:40
AT
Unemployment Rate
7.1
6.9
6.9
6.93
High
08:40
AT
Unemployed Persons
304.4
293.3
294
-44655.10
Low
Friday, November 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2
1.8
1.9
1.90
Low
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-
-0.6
-0.1
-0.47
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.8
2
1.98
Low
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-
0
0.3
0.18
Low
08:00
AT
PPI YoY
-2.3
-2.6
-2.2
-2.83
Low
08:00
AT
PPI MoM
0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-0.05
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.30
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.30
Low
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
-
42
42.1
41.43
High
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.40
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.80
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.08
0.3
0.30
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.8
1.81
1.8
1.78
Low
Friday, November 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Balance of Trade
-564
855.3
750
691.70
Low
08:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-0.4
-2.3
-1.2
-1.78
Low
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.3
-3.1
-1.5
-2.38
Low
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.38
Low
Monday, November 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:20
AT
Unemployment Rate
6.9
6.6
6.6
6.63
High
08:20
AT
Unemployed Persons
293.3
279.7
278
-44671.10
Low
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.8
1.8
2
2.00
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.8
1.81
1.9
1.88
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.08
0.1
0.10
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.40
Low
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0
0.2
0.08
Low
08:00
AT
PPI MoM
-0.2
0.2
-0.1
-0.05
Low
08:00
AT
PPI YoY
-2.6
-2
1
0.37
Low
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.07
Low
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
42
42.8
43
42.33
High
Thursday, October 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.30
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.8
2.4
1.8
1.80
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.08
-0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.81
2.3
1.8
1.78
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.5
-1.5
0.6
0.02
Low
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Balance of Trade
855.3
488.5
300
241.70
Low
Monday, October 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.7
-0.9
0.2
0.22
Low
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-3.1
-1.2
2.1
1.22
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
AT
Unemployed Persons
279.7
287.5
270000
225050.90
Low
07:30
AT
Unemployment Rate
6.6
6.7
6.9
6.93
High
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.8
2.4
3.7
3.70
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.30
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.8
2.3
2.1
2.08
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Current Account
0.7
8.1
-0.26
0.77
Low
07:00
AT
PPI YoY
-2
-1.8
-0.6
-1.23
Low
07:00
AT
PPI MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.25
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
42.8
44.4
47
46.33
High
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.9
2.4
2.38
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0
-0.2
-0.20
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.10
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.9
2.5
2.50
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-1.1
-3.3
-4.7
-5.28
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.2
1.4
2.1
1.22
Low
07:00
AT
Balance of Trade
488.5
2.5
300
241.70
Low
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.9
0.5
0.5
0.52
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.6
-1
0.7
0.33
Low
07:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.4
0.1
0
-0.12
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:20
AT
Unemployed Persons
287.5
275
276
-44673.10
Low
07:20
AT
Unemployment Rate
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.43
High
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0
0.2
0.20
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
07:00
AT
PPI MoM
0
0.2
0.3
0.35
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.9
2.5
2.48
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.9
2.5
2.50
Low
07:00
AT
PPI YoY
-1.8
-2.5
0.4
-0.23
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
44.4
43.1
43.2
42.53
High
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.90
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.2
0
0.00
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.88
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.4
0.04
-0.3
-0.30
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.9
-3.4
-2
-2.58
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Balance of Trade
2.5
303.2
400
341.70
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.3
0.32
Low
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
1.4
0.5
1.5
0.62
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Unemployed Persons
275
264
270
-44679.10
Low
07:00
AT
Unemployment Rate
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.23
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
3.9
3.88
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.3
0.04
-0.1
-0.10
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.1
3.8
3.80
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0
0.1
0.3
0.18
Low
07:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0
-1.1
0.7
0.33
Low
07:00
AT
PPI YoY
-2.5
-3.5
-1.1
-1.73
Low
07:00
AT
PPI MoM
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
43.1
43.6
45
44.33
High
Friday, July 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.20
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.3
3
2.98
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.04
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-4.1
-2.6
2.7
2.12
Low
Monday, July 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Balance of Trade
303.2
590.3
400
341.70
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
0.5
0.3
3.6
2.72
Low
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.1
-0.8
0.1
0.12
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.3
2.7
2.70
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.4
3
2.98
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Unemployment Rate
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.63
High
09:00
AT
Unemployed Persons
264
273
269000
224050.90
Low
08:00
AT
Current Account
9
4.7
4.3
5.33
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
PPI MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.35
Low
07:00
AT
PPI YoY
-3.5
-4.8
-2.9
-3.53
Low
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
43.6
46.3
45
44.33
High
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-0.5
-3.7
-4.8
-5.38
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Balance of Trade
590.3
1181.7
400
341.70
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
0.3
-0.8
1.9
1.02
Low
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.8
0.5
0.3
0.32
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:40
AT
Unemployment Rate
6.4
6.8
6.5
6.53
High
07:40
AT
Unemployed Persons
273
287.6
279
-44670.10
Low
07:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.08
Low
07:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.1
-1.6
-1.3
-1.67
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.20
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.58
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
PPI MoM
-0.1
-0.8
0.4
0.45
Low
07:00
AT
PPI YoY
-4.8
-6.3
-4.6
-5.23
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
46.3
43.5
44
43.33
High
Friday, May 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.4
3.40
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.20
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
4.1
3.5
3.48
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-5.4
-7.6
-2
-2.58
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Balance of Trade
1181.7
1077.5
450
391.70
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-0.8
-2
-0.8
-1.68
Low
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.5
-0.7
0.4
0.42
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0
0.3
0.18
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
4.1
4
3.98
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.70
Low
07:00
AT
PPI MoM
-0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.25
Low
07:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.3
-1.4
-0.8
-1.17
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.60
Low
07:00
AT
PPI YoY
-6.3
-6.4
-5.9
-6.53
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
4
4.00
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
43.5
42.2
43.8
43.13
High
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.50
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.18
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4
4.2
4.20
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.70
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-5.1
-2.7
-2.5
-3.08
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Balance of Trade
724.4
365.1
250
191.70
Low
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.7
1.2
0.3
0.32
Low
07:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-2
-2.1
0.6
-0.28
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.65
0.3
0.30
Low
07:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
4.2
4.3
4
3.98
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.30
Low
07:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.2
4.2
3.6
3.60
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
AT
Unemployment Rate
6.9
7.6
7.5
7.53
High
07:00
AT
Unemployed Persons
291.5
321.7
314
-44635.10
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
PPI MoM
-0.3
-1
-0.5
-0.45
Low
08:00
AT
PPI YoY
-6.4
-7.2
-5.5
-6.13
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
42.2
43
43
42.33
High
Monday, March 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
-0.4
0.7
0.70
Low
08:00
AT
CPI
123.3
122.5
123.2
123.25
High
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.65
-0.2
0.7
0.70
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
4.6
4.3
4.28
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.20
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Balance of Trade
365.1
1699.3
400
341.70
Low
08:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.8
0.1
-5.3
-5.88
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-2.1
-3.8
-2.5
-3.38
Low
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.2
1
0.5
0.52
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
AT
Unemployed Persons
321.7
343.8
328
-44621.10
Low
08:45
AT
Unemployment Rate
7.6
8.1
7
7.03
High
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
-0.4
0.6
0.60
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.10
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
-0.2
0.5
0.50
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
4.5
4
3.98
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0
-0.3
0.2
0.08
Low
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.7
-2
-1.3
-1.67
Low
08:00
AT
PPI YoY
-7.2
-3
-6.5
-7.13
Low
08:00
AT
PPI MoM
-1
-0.7
-0.2
-0.15
Low
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
43
43
44
43.33
High
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
5.7
4.3
4.30
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
-0.40
Low
08:00
AT
CPI
122.4
122.6
122.4
122.45
High
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.4
-0.2
-0.20
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
5.6
4.5
4.48
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-5.6
-6.1
-4.8
-5.38
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-3.8
-3.3
-5.3
-6.18
Low
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
1
-1
-0.6
-0.58
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Unemployed Persons
343.8
329.3
335
-44614.10
Low
09:00
AT
Unemployment Rate
8.1
7.8
8
8.03
High
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.10
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
5.7
4.7
4.70
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.4
0.5
-0.1
-0.10
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
5.6
4.6
4.58
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
PPI YoY
-3
-2.8
-2.1
-2.73
Low
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.3
-1.6
-1.5
-1.87
Low
08:00
AT
PPI MoM
-0.7
0.1
0.3
0.35
Low
08:00
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
-0.32
Low
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
AT
Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
43
42
42.9
42.23
High
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
CPI
122.6
122.1
122.4
122.45
High
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.40
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.50
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
5.6
5.3
5.6
5.58
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
5.7
4.9
5.7
5.70
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Industrial Production YoY
-4.4
-2.2
-0.5
-1.08
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Balance of Trade
1136.5
195.6
-120
-178.30
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate YoY
5.6
5.3
5.4
5.38
Low
08:00
AT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
08:00
AT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
5.7
4.9
5.1
5.10
Low
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices YoY
-3.3
-4.6
-3.1
-3.98
Low
08:00
AT
Wholesale Prices MoM
-1
-1
-0.8
-0.78
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
HICP MoM Inflation in Austria Slows to 0.40 Percent Austria’s December HICP MoM Inflation Shows Moderate Cooling The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP MoM) measures monthly changes in consumer prices across Austria, reflecting short-term inflation trends. In December 2025, Austria’s HICP MoM rose by 0.40%, down from 0.50% in November but still above the year’s average monthly increase of 0.30%. Key drivers included energy costs, which added roughly 0.15 percentage points amid ongoing global market volatility, and steady food prices contributing 0.10 points. Services inflation, especially in housing and transport, remained elevated due to wage pressures. According to economist Maria Gruber, “While the slight slowdown in Austria’s HICP MoM inflation offers some relief, persistent core inflation and external risks mean the European Central Bank will likely maintain a cautious stance.” The data underscores that inflation remains a challenge for Austria’s policymakers as they balance growth and price stability in a complex global environment.
December’s HICP MoM increase of 0.40% is a modest decline from November’s 0.50%, yet above the 12-month average of 0.30%. This suggests inflation pressures are easing but remain persistent. The chart below illustrates the monthly inflation trend over the past year, highlighting a peak of 0.70% in mid-2025 and a gradual decline since.
Comparing to historical data, the current inflation rate is higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 0.20% MoM but lower than the 2022 peak of 1.10% MoM during energy crisis spikes. This pattern reflects a transition from acute shocks to more structural inflation drivers.