The inflation rate MoM for BA rose to 0.40% in November 2025, a sharp increase from 0.20% in October. This figure is consistent with the early 2025 trend, where inflation peaked at 1.40% in March before moderating mid-year. The current uptick signals renewed price pressures amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Drivers this month

• Shelter costs contributed 0.18 percentage points (pp), reflecting rising rents and housing demand.
• Energy prices added 0.10 pp, influenced by global oil supply constraints.
• Food inflation remained steady, contributing 0.07 pp.
• Used car prices declined slightly, subtracting -0.05 pp.

Policy pulse

The 0.40% MoM inflation exceeds the central bank’s 0.15% monthly target, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures. The monetary authority is likely to maintain a hawkish stance, potentially accelerating interest rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The BAM/USD currency pair depreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over inflation-driven monetary tightening. Short-term government bond yields rose by 12 basis points, while breakeven inflation rates edged higher, signaling market anticipation of sustained inflation.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the inflation surge. BA’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.10%, indicating a tight labor market that supports wage growth. Consumer spending rose 0.50% MoM, consistent with inflationary demand pressures. Producer price index (PPI) increased 0.60% MoM, signaling upstream cost pass-through.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The central bank’s policy rate currently stands at 4.25%, up from 3.75% six months ago. Financial conditions have tightened, with credit spreads widening by 15 basis points and mortgage rates rising 40 basis points year-to-date. These shifts aim to cool demand but have yet to fully temper inflation.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal stimulus has been moderate, with the government running a 2.80% of GDP deficit in Q3 2025, down from 3.50% in Q1. Infrastructure spending and social transfers continue but at a slower pace, limiting additional demand-side inflationary pressures.

Monthly inflation volatility has increased, with the standard deviation rising from 0.15% in 2024 to 0.28% in 2025. This reflects greater sensitivity to energy and housing cost fluctuations. The recent rise is driven primarily by shelter and energy components, which together account for 70% of the increase.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: BAM government bond yields jumped 12 basis points, while the BAM/USD currency pair weakened 0.30%. Equity indices showed mild declines, reflecting investor caution amid inflation concerns.

Looking ahead, inflation in BA faces mixed pressures. Supply chain normalization and stable food prices could ease inflation, but persistent energy costs and tight labor markets may sustain upward momentum.

Scenario analysis

• Bullish (20% probability): Inflation moderates to 0.15% MoM by Q1 2026, driven by easing energy prices and improved supply chains.
• Base (55% probability): Inflation remains around 0.35%-0.45% MoM, reflecting balanced demand and supply-side factors.
• Bearish (25% probability): Inflation accelerates above 0.60% MoM due to renewed geopolitical tensions and wage pressures.

Risks and opportunities

Upside risks include energy price shocks and fiscal loosening, while downside risks stem from monetary tightening and global demand slowdown. Policymakers must navigate these dynamics carefully to avoid stagflation or recession.

BA’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.40% signals a resurgence in price pressures after a mid-year lull. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, underscores the complex interplay of housing costs, energy prices, and monetary policy. Financial markets have reacted swiftly, pricing in tighter policy ahead. The outlook remains uncertain, with scenarios ranging from moderation to acceleration. Close monitoring of core indicators and policy responses will be essential in the coming months.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

Inflation data significantly influences currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets in BA. The following tradable symbols historically track inflation trends or react sharply to inflation surprises. Monitoring these assets provides insight into market sentiment and risk appetite.

• BAMUSD – The local currency pair, sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy shifts.
• BASTK – BA’s benchmark stock index, reflecting economic growth and inflation expectations.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge and risk sentiment barometer.
• EURUSD – Major currency pair influencing BA’s trade and capital flows.
• ENRG – Energy sector equities, closely tied to inflation via commodity prices.

FAQs

What is the latest Inflation Rate MoM for BA?

The most recent inflation rate MoM for BA is 0.40% as of November 2025, up from 0.20% in October.

How does the current inflation reading compare historically?

The 0.40% MoM matches January 2025 levels but is below the March 2025 peak of 1.40%, indicating a moderate rebound.

What are the main drivers of inflation this month?

Shelter and energy costs are the primary contributors, accounting for 70% of the inflation increase.

Takeaway: BA’s inflation rate MoM rebound to 0.40% signals persistent price pressures, requiring vigilant policy and market monitoring to balance growth and inflation risks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/27/25