The November 2025 release of the NBB Business Confidence index for Belgium, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, shows a notable improvement to -8.20 from October’s -9.10. This figure outperformed the consensus estimate of -8.70 and marks a partial recovery from the lows seen earlier this year. The index remains below zero, indicating prevailing caution among Belgian businesses but suggests a stabilizing sentiment after a volatile 2025.

Drivers this month

• Manufacturing optimism rose, supported by easing supply chain disruptions.
• Service sector confidence improved slightly amid steady domestic demand.
• Construction sector remained subdued due to rising input costs.

Policy pulse

The reading remains below the neutral zero mark, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and monetary tightening. The National Bank of Belgium’s stance aligns with the ECB’s restrictive policy, aiming to curb inflation that remains above the 2% target.

Market lens

Following the release, the EUR/USD currency pair showed mild appreciation, reflecting improved sentiment. The Belgian government bond yields tightened by 5 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.

Belgium’s macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed. Inflation held at 4.10% YoY in October, down from 4.50% in September but still well above the ECB’s target. Unemployment edged down to 5.80%, reflecting resilient labor demand. Industrial production grew 0.30% MoM but contracted 1.20% YoY, highlighting ongoing sectoral challenges.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The ECB’s key interest rate stands at 4.25%, unchanged since September. Financial conditions remain tight, with credit growth slowing to 2.10% YoY. The NBB’s business confidence improvement suggests some easing of financial stress but does not yet signal a full recovery.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Belgium’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.70% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by higher tax revenues and controlled spending. However, public debt remains elevated at 108% of GDP, limiting fiscal maneuverability amid global uncertainties.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions from Asia continue to pose risks. Energy price volatility remains a concern, although recent declines in natural gas prices have provided some relief.

Sectoral contributions reveal manufacturing and services as key drivers of the rebound, while construction remains a drag. The index’s trajectory suggests a cautious but improving business outlook heading into 2026.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/USD dipped 0.15% in the first hour post-release, reflecting mixed market interpretation. Belgian 10-year bond yields tightened by 5 basis points, indicating improved risk appetite. The BEL 20 index rose 0.40%, led by industrial stocks.

Looking ahead, Belgium’s business confidence trajectory suggests moderate growth but with notable risks. The baseline scenario (60% probability) anticipates gradual improvement in sentiment as inflation moderates and supply chains normalize. GDP growth is forecast at 1.20% for 2026, supported by domestic demand and exports.

Bullish scenario (20%)

• Inflation falls below 3% faster than expected.
• ECB signals pause or easing in monetary tightening.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, boosting trade.

Bearish scenario (20%)

• Energy prices spike due to geopolitical shocks.
• ECB tightens further amid persistent inflation.
• Global recession dampens export demand.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Belgium faces structural challenges including aging demographics and high public debt. However, ongoing digitalization and green transition efforts offer growth potential. Business confidence improvements may reflect early benefits from these structural shifts.

The November 2025 NBB Business Confidence index signals cautious optimism in Belgium’s economy. While the index remains negative, the improvement from October and the 12-month average suggests businesses are adapting to a complex environment of inflation, monetary tightening, and geopolitical risks. Policymakers should balance inflation control with growth support, while investors monitor evolving financial conditions and external shocks.

Continued monitoring of core indicators and confidence trends will be essential to gauge Belgium’s economic resilience heading into 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to NBB Business Confidence

Belgium’s business confidence index closely tracks sentiment in equity, bond, and currency markets. The BEL 20 equity index typically moves in tandem with confidence shifts, reflecting corporate earnings outlooks. Government bond yields respond to changing risk perceptions and fiscal outlooks. The EUR/USD currency pair is sensitive to ECB policy expectations influenced by domestic sentiment. Additionally, the EUR/CHF forex pair often reacts to regional economic shifts, while the BTCUSD crypto pair can reflect broader risk appetite trends.

• BEL20 – Belgium’s benchmark equity index, closely correlated with business confidence.
• EURUSD – Major currency pair sensitive to ECB policy and Belgian economic data.
• EURCHF – Reflects regional economic sentiment and safe-haven flows.
• ING – Large Belgian bank, sensitive to domestic financial conditions.
• BTCUSD – Crypto pair reflecting global risk appetite and market sentiment.

Extras: Indicator vs. BEL20 Since 2020

Insight: Since 2020, the NBB Business Confidence index and BEL 20 index have shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.72). Periods of rising confidence, such as post-pandemic recovery in 2021, coincided with BEL 20 rallies. Conversely, confidence dips during geopolitical shocks in 2022 aligned with market sell-offs. This relationship underscores the index’s value as a forward-looking gauge for Belgian equities.

FAQs

What is the NBB Business Confidence index?

The NBB Business Confidence index measures the sentiment of Belgian businesses regarding economic conditions, based on monthly surveys compiled by the National Bank of Belgium.

How does the NBB Business Confidence index impact Belgium’s economy?

The index serves as a leading indicator for economic activity, influencing investment decisions, employment, and policy responses in Belgium.

Why is the NBB Business Confidence index important for investors?

Investors use the index to gauge economic momentum and risk, helping to inform portfolio allocation in Belgian equities, bonds, and currency markets.

Final Takeaway: Belgium’s November 2025 business confidence improvement signals resilience amid macro challenges but underscores the need for cautious policy navigation in a complex global environment.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/24/25

Sources

1. National Bank of Belgium, NBB Business Confidence Survey, November 2025 release.
2. Sigmanomics database, Belgium macroeconomic indicators, November 2025.
3. European Central Bank, Monetary Policy Decisions, November 2025.
4. Belgian Federal Government Budget Reports, Q3 2025.
5. International Energy Agency, Energy Price Reports, November 2025.