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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Balance of Trade fell to -1,010.7M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Bulgaria Balance of Trade fell to -1,010.7M in June 2026, released August 2026, down 52.8M from May's -957.9M reading. The reading matched the -1,010M consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -1,589.89M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1,125.05M, vs -1,094.3M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1010.7
Actual
-1010
Consensus
-957.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±310.95 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -827.53
Actual: -1,010.7
Error: +183.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Bulgaria) was reported at -1,010.70 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1,010.00 million by 0.70 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -957.90 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1,654.47 million, ranging from -2,909.10 million to -957.90 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1,086.93 million, up from the prior three at -1,793.77 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 655.94 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 444.56 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -910.20 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 310.95 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 11, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - BG
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About Balance of Trade — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -1,010.7 M, consensus -1,010 M. Prior reading (May 2026): -957.9 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -1,292.2 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | BG | Industrial Production MoM | -3 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -1.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Construction Output YoY | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 4.15 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Industrial Production YoY | -6.8 | -2.5 | -2 | -4.40 | Low |
| Friday, September 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BG | Balance of Trade | -1010.7 | -970 | -970.00 | Low | |