BG Balance of Trade: November 2025 Release Analysis
The latest Balance of Trade data for BG, released on November 11, 2025, reveals a significant widening of the trade deficit. According to the Sigmanomics database, the deficit reached -1.96 billion BGN, nearly doubling the previous month’s -1.09 billion BGN and far exceeding the consensus estimate of -900 million BGN. This report examines the recent trends, macroeconomic context, and implications for BG’s economy and policy outlook.
Table of Contents
The November 2025 Balance of Trade print for BG shows a sharp deterioration to -1.96 billion BGN, marking the largest monthly deficit in over a year. This contrasts with the relatively stable deficits averaging around -1.20 billion BGN in the prior 12 months. The widening gap reflects increased import demand amid slowing export growth, raising concerns about external vulnerabilities and currency pressures.
Drivers this month
- Import surge driven by energy and intermediate goods, up 15% MoM.
- Export growth stalled at 2% YoY, below the 5% average over the past year.
- Geopolitical tensions in key trading partners disrupted supply chains, limiting export volumes.
Policy pulse
The trade deficit now exceeds the central bank’s comfort zone, complicating monetary policy. With inflation hovering near 4%, the National Bank of BG faces a dilemma between tightening to defend the currency and supporting growth amid external headwinds.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The BGN depreciated 0.40% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points, reflecting increased risk premia.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for the trade data. BG’s GDP growth slowed to 1.80% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 2.50% in Q2. Inflation remains elevated at 3.90%, driven by energy prices and supply constraints. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.20%, indicating moderate labor market slack.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The National Bank of BG maintained its policy rate at 3.25% in October but signaled potential hikes if inflation persists. Financial conditions tightened slightly, with credit growth slowing to 4.10% YoY. The widening trade deficit adds pressure on foreign reserves and the currency peg mechanism.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit forecast at 3.50% of GDP. Increased public spending on infrastructure and social programs supports domestic demand, indirectly boosting imports. However, rising debt levels (currently 45% of GDP) limit further fiscal stimulus.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions have constrained export growth and increased import costs. Energy price volatility, partly due to sanctions and trade restrictions, has exacerbated the trade imbalance.
This chart signals a reversal of the relative stabilization seen in mid-2025. The sharp deficit expansion suggests rising external vulnerabilities and potential pressure on BG’s currency peg. Monitoring import composition and export diversification will be critical in coming months.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The BGN/EUR exchange rate weakened by 0.40%, while 2-year government bond yields climbed 12 basis points, reflecting investor concerns over external imbalances and potential monetary tightening.
Looking ahead, BG’s trade balance trajectory depends on several factors, including global demand, energy prices, and domestic policy responses. Three scenarios outline potential paths:
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Global demand recovers, boosting exports by 6% YoY.
- Energy prices stabilize or decline, reducing import costs.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth.
- Trade deficit narrows to -1.00 billion BGN by Q1 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Exports grow modestly at 3% YoY amid uneven global recovery.
- Energy prices remain elevated but stable.
- Monetary tightening to defend currency, slowing domestic demand.
- Trade deficit remains wide near -1.80 billion BGN through early 2026.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade flows.
- Energy prices spike sharply, increasing import bill by 25%.
- Currency depreciation pressures inflation and financial stability.
- Trade deficit widens further beyond -2.50 billion BGN.
Policy pulse
Policymakers face a balancing act between inflation control and growth support. The trade deficit’s sharp rise may prompt accelerated rate hikes or targeted fiscal measures to curb import demand.
BG’s November 2025 Balance of Trade data signals mounting external pressures amid a challenging global environment. The sharp deficit widening underscores vulnerabilities in export performance and import dependence, particularly on energy. Policymakers must navigate tightening financial conditions and elevated inflation while safeguarding external stability.
Structural reforms to diversify exports and improve energy efficiency will be essential for long-run resilience. Meanwhile, close monitoring of geopolitical developments and commodity markets remains critical. The coming quarters will test BG’s economic flexibility and policy effectiveness amid evolving global risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
The Balance of Trade is a key driver of currency and bond market sentiment in BG. The widening deficit typically pressures the BGN exchange rate and influences government bond yields. Additionally, equity sectors linked to exports and energy imports may see volatility. Below are five tradable symbols historically sensitive to BG’s trade dynamics:
- ELBG – BG export-oriented industrial stock, sensitive to trade volumes.
- BGNEUR – Currency pair reflecting BG’s trade-driven currency pressures.
- BGBTC – Crypto pair showing risk sentiment shifts linked to macro shocks.
- ENBG – Energy sector stock impacted by import cost fluctuations.
- USDBGN – USD to BGN exchange rate, sensitive to external imbalances.
Indicator vs. ELBG Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, BG’s Balance of Trade and ELBG stock price have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of widening trade deficits coincide with ELBG underperformance, reflecting export sector headwinds. The recent sharp deficit increase in November 2025 aligns with a 7% decline in ELBG over the past month, underscoring the sensitivity of export-linked equities to external trade dynamics.
FAQ
- What is the current state of BG’s Balance of Trade?
- The latest data shows a -1.96 billion BGN deficit, the largest monthly shortfall in over a year, driven by rising imports and sluggish exports.
- How does the trade deficit affect BG’s economy?
- A widening deficit pressures the currency, raises inflation risks, and complicates monetary policy, potentially slowing growth if unchecked.
- What are the key risks for BG’s trade outlook?
- Risks include geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and global demand fluctuations, which could further widen the deficit or disrupt exports.
Key takeaway: BG’s November trade deficit surge signals rising external vulnerabilities, requiring careful policy calibration and structural reforms to sustain economic stability.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November trade deficit of -1.96 billion BGN sharply contrasts with October’s -1.09 billion BGN and the 12-month average deficit of -1.30 billion BGN. This marks the steepest monthly deterioration since May 2025, when the deficit hit -1.91 billion BGN.
Imports rose by 12% MoM, driven largely by energy (+20%) and intermediate goods (+14%), while exports grew a modest 2% YoY, down from the 5% average over the past year. The trade deficit’s widening reflects a structural shift in BG’s external sector amid global uncertainties.