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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Construction Output YoY fell to 5.6% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Bulgaria Construction Output YoY fell to 5.6% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.3% from April's 6.9% reading. The print exceeded the 4.0% consensus by 1.6%. Construction Output YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output YoY averaged 7.15%, vs 4.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.6
Actual
4
Consensus
6.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.8
Actual: 5.6
Error: -1.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (Bulgaria) was reported at 5.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4% by 1.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.94%, ranging from 0.6% to 9.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.4%, up from the prior three at 2.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.32%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.2%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged 5.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 10, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Construction Output YoY - BG
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About Construction Output YoY — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 5.6 %, consensus 4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 6.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 7.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.45 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Business Confidence | 17.2 | 16.1 | 16.5 | 16.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Producer Price Index YoY | 17.1 | 17.5 | 17.3 | 17.20 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.30 | Low |