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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Current Account fell to -1,610M in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Bulgaria Current Account fell to -1,610M in March 2026, released May 2026, down 1,194M from February's -416M reading. The reading missed the -1,000M consensus by 610M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -529.97M. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged -449.5M, vs -1,195.87M in the prior 3-month window. Current Account is now the lowest in 31 months.
Latest Release
-1610
Actual
-1000
Consensus
-416
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±370.66 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -1,000
Actual: -1,610
Error: +610
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Bulgaria) was reported at -1,610.00 million in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1,000.00 million by 610.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -416.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -638.50 million, ranging from -1,610.00 million to 301.60 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1,249.33 million, down from the prior three at -990.50 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 625.69 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 522.72 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -682.50 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 370.66 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Current Account - BG
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About Current Account — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -1,610 M, consensus -1,000 M. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -170 M. Before that (Jan 2026): -729 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.48) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.