BG GDP Growth Rate YoY: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Bulgaria’s GDP growth for November 2025 came in at 3.20% YoY, slightly below the 3.40% recorded in March and September but well above the 2.00% consensus estimate. This steady expansion reflects resilient domestic demand amid moderate external headwinds. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, while fiscal discipline supports growth. External geopolitical risks and global financial market volatility pose downside risks. Structural reforms and EU integration continue to underpin long-run growth prospects.
Table of Contents
Bulgaria’s latest GDP growth rate of 3.20% YoY, released on November 14, 2025, signals continued economic resilience. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, outperforms the 2.00% consensus estimate and marks a slight moderation from the 3.40% peaks seen earlier this year in March and September. Over the past 12 months, growth has averaged approximately 2.90%, reflecting a stable expansion phase.
Drivers this month
- Strong private consumption contributed roughly 1.50 percentage points (pp) to growth.
- Investment growth slowed but remained positive at 0.70 pp.
- Net exports subtracted 0.30 pp due to weaker external demand.
Policy pulse
The Bulgarian National Bank has maintained an accommodative stance, keeping key rates steady at 1.75%. Inflation remains near the 2% target, allowing room for supportive monetary policy. Fiscal policy continues to emphasize budget balance, with a deficit forecast below 3% of GDP for 2025.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The BGN currency appreciated 0.10% versus the EUR in the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in growth stability. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, signaling moderate optimism among investors.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpin Bulgaria’s growth trajectory. Inflation averaged 2.10% YoY in October 2025, close to the central bank’s target. Unemployment declined to 5.80%, the lowest since 2022, supporting consumption. Industrial production rose 3.50% YoY, while retail sales expanded 4.00% YoY, highlighting robust domestic demand.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bulgarian National Bank’s steady policy rate at 1.75% and ample liquidity have kept borrowing costs low. Credit growth to the private sector remains healthy at 6.20% YoY, fueling investment and consumption. Inflation expectations are well-anchored, reducing volatility in financial markets.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
The government’s fiscal stance remains prudent. The 2025 budget projects a deficit of 2.70% of GDP, down from 3.10% in 2024. Public investment in infrastructure and digitalization has increased by 8% YoY, supporting medium-term productivity gains. Tax revenues have grown 5.50% YoY, reflecting economic expansion.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Regional geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe, continue to pose risks. Energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions have moderated but remain concerns. Bulgaria’s export exposure to the EU, which accounts for 70% of trade, cushions some external shocks but global demand softness could weigh on future growth.
Historical comparisons show that the 3.20% growth is well above the 2.20% recorded in November 2024 and significantly higher than the 2.10% in September 2024. This reflects a recovery trajectory post-pandemic and the impact of structural reforms.
This chart highlights Bulgaria’s GDP growth trending upward over the past year, with a recent plateau signaling a transition from rapid recovery to steady expansion. The moderation in growth suggests the economy is balancing between domestic demand strength and external headwinds.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Bulgarian lev (BGN) strengthened marginally against the euro, while 2-year government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, reflecting market confidence in sustained growth despite slight moderation.
Looking ahead, Bulgaria’s GDP growth is expected to remain positive but face mixed pressures. The baseline scenario projects growth of 3.00% YoY over the next 12 months, supported by stable consumption and moderate investment. Inflation is forecast to stay near target, allowing monetary policy to remain accommodative.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger EU demand boosts exports by 5% YoY.
- Accelerated fiscal stimulus increases public investment by 10%.
- Monetary policy remains supportive amid low inflation.
- GDP growth accelerates to 3.80% YoY.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Domestic demand remains steady with 3.00% growth.
- Investment growth moderates to 0.50 pp contribution.
- External demand remains subdued but stable.
- GDP growth holds at 3.00% YoY.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade.
- Energy price shocks increase inflation above 3.50%.
- Monetary tightening reduces credit growth.
- GDP growth slows to 2.00% YoY or below.
Bulgaria’s GDP growth rate of 3.20% YoY in November 2025 reflects a resilient economy navigating a complex global environment. While growth has moderated slightly from earlier peaks, the underlying fundamentals remain strong. Prudent fiscal management, accommodative monetary policy, and ongoing structural reforms provide a solid foundation. However, external risks and geopolitical uncertainties warrant close monitoring.
Investors and policymakers should weigh the balanced risks and opportunities, with a focus on sustaining domestic demand and enhancing export competitiveness. Bulgaria’s integration within the EU and commitment to reform remain key long-run growth drivers.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
Bulgaria’s GDP growth data typically influences regional financial markets, particularly those linked to the eurozone and emerging Europe. Key assets to watch include the Bulgarian lev and government bonds, as well as select equities and currency pairs sensitive to economic momentum and risk sentiment.
- EURBGN – The Bulgarian lev’s peg to the euro makes this pair sensitive to growth data and monetary policy signals.
- SOF – Sofia Stock Exchange index reflects domestic economic conditions and investor sentiment.
- USDEUR – Eurozone currency pairs react to regional growth trends impacting Bulgaria.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often moves inversely to risk sentiment tied to economic data.
- OMV – Energy sector stock sensitive to regional energy price shocks affecting Bulgaria’s economy.
FAQs
- What is the current GDP Growth Rate YoY for Bulgaria?
- The latest GDP growth rate for Bulgaria is 3.20% YoY as of November 2025.
- How does Bulgaria’s GDP growth compare historically?
- Growth has averaged 2.90% over the past year, with peaks at 3.40% earlier in 2025 and lows near 2.10% in late 2024.
- What are the main risks to Bulgaria’s economic growth?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and potential monetary tightening if inflation rises.
Takeaway: Bulgaria’s economy remains on a steady growth path, balancing robust domestic demand with external uncertainties. Vigilant policy and structural reforms will be critical to sustaining momentum.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Bulgaria’s GDP growth rate of 3.20% YoY in November 2025 marks a slight dip from the 3.40% recorded in September but remains above the 12-month average of 2.90%. This indicates a stable but moderating expansion phase after a peak in early 2025.
Compared to the previous month’s 3.40%, the current reading suggests a modest slowdown, driven primarily by weaker net exports and a slight deceleration in investment growth. However, private consumption remains the main growth engine.