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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.8% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Bulgaria GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.8% in April 2026, released September 2026, down 0.2% from March's 3.0% reading. The reading matched the 2.7% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.03%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate YoY averaged 2.7%, vs 3.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
2.7
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.75
Actual: 2.8
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Bulgaria) was reported at 2.8% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.94%, ranging from 2.7% to 3.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.73%, down from the prior three at 3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.75%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - BG
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.7 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | BG | Current Account | -488.3 | -520 | -399.50 | Low | |