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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Industrial Production MoM fell to -4.6% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Bulgaria Industrial Production MoM fell to -4.6% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 9.8% from March's 5.2% reading. The reading missed the -2.3% consensus by 2.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.28%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 3.35%, vs -1.33% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
-4.6
Actual
-2.3
Consensus
5.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.88 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -2.3
Actual: -4.6
Error: +2.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Bulgaria) was reported at -4.6% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2.3% by 2.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.87%, ranging from -4.6% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.3%, down from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.04%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.55%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.88%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 10, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - BG
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About Industrial Production MoM — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -4.6 %, consensus -2.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 5.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.59) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.