Industrial Production MoM in Bulgaria: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Bulgaria’s industrial production surged 3.30% MoM in November 2025, sharply beating the 0.20% consensus and reversing the slight 0.10% decline from October. This marks the strongest monthly gain in over a year, signaling robust manufacturing momentum amid easing supply constraints. The rebound supports Bulgaria’s growth outlook but raises questions on inflationary pressures and monetary policy responses. External risks from regional geopolitical tensions and global demand shifts remain key downside factors.
Table of Contents
Bulgaria’s industrial production MoM jumped 3.30% in November 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably outpaced the 0.20% market estimate and reversed the prior month’s 0.10% contraction. The surge reflects a strong rebound in manufacturing output, driven by improved supply chains and rising domestic and export demand.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output increased by 4.10%, led by machinery and electronics.
- Mining and utilities sectors contributed 0.50% and 0.30% respectively.
- Inventory restocking and export orders boosted production capacity utilization.
Policy pulse
The 3.30% MoM rise exceeds the Bulgarian National Bank’s inflation target zone, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices. Monetary authorities may face renewed pressure to tighten financial conditions if industrial growth sustains at this pace.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Bulgarian lev (BGN) strengthened 0.40% against the euro within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points, reflecting hawkish repricing.
Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of Bulgaria’s manufacturing and resource extraction sectors. The 3.30% MoM increase in November 2025 is the highest since a 3.50% gain recorded in August 2024, and well above the 12-month average monthly growth of 0.40%.
Comparative historical context
- October 2025: -0.10% MoM decline, reflecting supply chain disruptions.
- November 2024: 1.20% MoM growth, amid post-pandemic recovery.
- Average monthly growth (Nov 2024–Oct 2025): 0.40%.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Bulgarian National Bank has maintained a cautious stance, keeping benchmark rates steady at 3.25%. However, the sharp industrial rebound may prompt reassessment. Rising industrial output often correlates with increased credit demand and inflationary pressures, potentially leading to tighter monetary policy.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus measures, including infrastructure investments and tax incentives for manufacturing, have supported industrial growth. The government’s budget surplus of 1.10% of GDP in Q3 2025 provides room for continued support, but fiscal prudence remains a priority amid external uncertainties.
The chart below illustrates the monthly industrial production growth rates over the past 18 months, highlighting the recent volatility and the strong rebound in November. The data underscores the cyclical nature of Bulgaria’s industrial sector, sensitive to external demand and supply chain dynamics.
This chart confirms Bulgaria’s industrial sector is trending upward after a brief downturn. The November surge suggests improving supply conditions and robust demand, which could sustain growth into early 2026 if external risks remain contained.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Bulgarian lev (BGN) appreciated 0.40% versus the euro, while 2-year government bond yields climbed 12 basis points, reflecting market expectations of tighter monetary policy amid stronger industrial growth.
Looking ahead, Bulgaria’s industrial production trajectory will depend on several factors, including global demand, supply chain normalization, and domestic policy responses. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Continued strong export demand from EU partners.
- Supply chain improvements sustain manufacturing output growth above 2% MoM.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting investment.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate industrial growth averaging 0.50–1.00% MoM.
- Monetary tightening begins in Q2 2026 to contain inflation.
- Fiscal policy remains neutral with targeted support.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt exports and supply chains.
- Global demand weakens amid recession fears.
- Industrial production contracts by 0.50–1.00% MoM.
Structural & long-run trends
Bulgaria’s industrial sector is gradually shifting towards higher value-added manufacturing and technology-intensive industries. This structural evolution supports long-term productivity gains but requires sustained investment and skilled labor availability.
Bulgaria’s November 2025 industrial production MoM reading of 3.30% marks a robust rebound from recent softness. This surge highlights the resilience of the manufacturing sector amid easing supply constraints and improving demand. However, the sharp acceleration raises questions about inflationary pressures and the potential for monetary tightening. External geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainty remain key downside risks. Policymakers and investors should monitor upcoming data closely to gauge sustainability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production MoM
The industrial production data is closely watched by markets sensitive to Bulgaria’s economic cycle. Key symbols include:
- CEZ – Major energy utility, sensitive to industrial demand fluctuations.
- EURBGN – Currency pair reflecting Bulgaria’s trade and capital flows.
- BTCUSD – Proxy for risk sentiment impacting emerging market assets.
- MTEL – Telecommunications stock, correlated with economic activity.
- USDBGN – Reflects capital flows and monetary policy expectations.
FAQs
- What does Bulgaria’s Industrial Production MoM indicate?
- The indicator measures monthly changes in Bulgaria’s industrial output, reflecting manufacturing and resource sector health.
- How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?
- The 3.30% MoM rise is the strongest in over a year, reversing recent declines and exceeding the 12-month average of 0.40%.
- What are the macroeconomic implications of this data?
- Stronger industrial production supports GDP growth but may increase inflation risks, influencing monetary policy decisions.
Final takeaway: Bulgaria’s industrial production rebound signals renewed economic momentum but warrants close monitoring of inflation and external risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Bulgaria’s industrial production MoM surged to 3.30% in November 2025, a sharp acceleration from -0.10% in October and well above the 12-month average of 0.40%. This rebound reflects a broad-based recovery across manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors.
Compared to the previous year’s November reading of 1.20%, the current print signals a significant pickup in industrial momentum, reversing a period of stagnation and mild contraction seen in mid-2025.