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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Industrial Production MoM fell to -3.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Bulgaria Industrial Production MoM fell to -3.0% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 2.9% from June's -0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 3.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.05%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.1%, vs 0.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3
Actual
0.5
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.5
Actual: -3
Error: +2.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Bulgaria) was reported at -3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 3.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.03%, ranging from -4.6% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.93%, up from the prior three at -2.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.12%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.38%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - BG
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About Industrial Production MoM — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -3 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (May 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | BG | Current Account | -488.3 | -520 | -399.50 | Low | |