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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Industrial Production MoM climbed to -0.2% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Bulgaria Industrial Production MoM climbed to -0.2% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 4.4% from April's -4.6% reading. The reading missed the 3.8% consensus by 4.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.17%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.6%, vs -0.47% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
3.8
Consensus
-4.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.65
Actual: -0.2
Error: +2.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Bulgaria) was reported at -0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.8% by 4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.94%, ranging from -4.6% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.47%, down from the prior three at -1.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.01%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.36%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 10, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - BG
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About Industrial Production MoM — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -4.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 5.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.47) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.45 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Business Confidence | 17.2 | 16.1 | 16.5 | 16.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Producer Price Index YoY | 17.1 | 17.5 | 17.3 | 17.20 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.30 | Low |