Inflation Rate YoY in Bulgaria: November 2025 Analysis and Outlook
Released November 17, 2025, the latest inflation rate YoY for Bulgaria (BG) registers at 5.30%, marking a slight easing from October’s 5.60%. This report draws on the Sigmanomics database to contextualize the current inflation dynamics, compare recent trends, and assess macroeconomic implications for Bulgaria’s economy and policy landscape.
Table of Contents
Bulgaria’s inflation rate YoY for November 2025 came in at 5.30%, down from 5.60% in October and below the 5.50% consensus estimate. This marks a modest deceleration after a steady rise since mid-2025, when inflation hovered near 3.50%–4.40%. The current rate remains elevated relative to the 12-month average of approximately 4.80% since November 2024, reflecting persistent price pressures amid global and domestic challenges.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices stabilized, contributing a 0.12 percentage point (pp) reduction in headline inflation.
- Food inflation remained sticky, adding 0.25 pp, driven by supply chain disruptions.
- Services inflation edged up 0.10 pp, reflecting wage pressures and increased domestic demand.
Policy pulse
The 5.30% inflation rate remains above the Bulgarian National Bank’s implicit target range of 2%–3%. This persistent overshoot signals continued monetary policy vigilance, with the central bank likely to maintain or cautiously tighten policy to anchor inflation expectations.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Bulgarian lev (BGN) strengthened modestly against the euro, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting market anticipation of tighter monetary conditions. Breakeven inflation rates edged down slightly, signaling tempered inflation expectations.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for Bulgaria’s inflation trajectory. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was a moderate 2.10% YoY, slightly below the 2.50% average for the past year. Unemployment remains low at 5.20%, supporting wage growth and domestic demand. The current account deficit widened marginally to 1.80% of GDP, pressured by higher import costs.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bulgarian National Bank has kept its key policy rate steady at 3.75% since September 2025. Financial conditions have tightened slightly, with credit growth slowing to 4.20% YoY from 5.00% earlier in the year. Inflation persistence and wage growth underpin expectations for a potential 25 basis point hike in early 2026.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government targeting a 2.50% of GDP deficit in 2025. Increased spending on social programs and infrastructure supports demand but risks fueling inflationary pressures if unchecked.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions continue to impact Bulgaria’s inflation. Regional geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe add uncertainty, potentially affecting trade and investment flows.
This chart indicates inflation is trending downward after a peak in October, suggesting easing cost pressures. However, persistent food and service inflation could sustain headline inflation above target in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Bulgarian lev appreciated 0.30% versus the euro post-release. Short-term government bond yields rose modestly, reflecting market pricing of a tighter monetary stance ahead.
Looking ahead, Bulgaria’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors, including global commodity prices, domestic wage growth, and monetary policy responses. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global energy prices decline sharply, easing cost pressures.
- Monetary tightening successfully anchors inflation expectations.
- Inflation falls below 3% by mid-2026, supporting real income growth and investment.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Energy prices stabilize with moderate volatility.
- Inflation gradually declines to 3.50%–4% by late 2026.
- Monetary policy tightens moderately, balancing growth and inflation risks.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Supply chain disruptions worsen, pushing food and services inflation higher.
- Wage pressures intensify, sustaining inflation above 5% through 2026.
- Monetary policy lags, risking inflation expectations unanchoring and financial market volatility.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Bulgaria faces structural inflation drivers including labor market tightness and integration into EU supply chains. Long-run inflation is expected to moderate as productivity gains and fiscal consolidation progress, but demographic challenges may sustain wage pressures.
Bulgaria’s November 2025 inflation rate of 5.30% signals a tentative easing after months of upward pressure. While headline inflation remains above target, signs of moderation in energy costs provide some relief. Policymakers face a delicate balance between curbing inflation and supporting growth amid external uncertainties and structural constraints.
Financial markets have responded with cautious optimism, pricing in moderate monetary tightening. The outlook remains mixed, with risks skewed toward persistent inflation if supply-side shocks or wage pressures intensify. Close monitoring of inflation components and policy signals will be critical in the coming months.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data in Bulgaria typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to interest rate expectations and economic growth. The following tradable symbols historically track inflation trends and monetary policy shifts in Bulgaria and the broader region:
- EURBGN – The euro/Bulgarian lev pair reacts to inflation-driven monetary policy changes.
- SOF – Sofia Stock Exchange index, sensitive to economic growth and inflation.
- BGNBTC – Cryptocurrency pair reflecting regional investor sentiment amid inflation uncertainty.
- OMV – Energy sector stock impacted by commodity price shifts affecting inflation.
- USDTRY – Regional currency pair sensitive to inflation and geopolitical risks.
Extras: Inflation Rate vs. EURBGN Since 2020
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (%) | EURBGN Exchange Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.20 | 1.96 |
| 2021 | 2.50 | 1.96 |
| 2022 | 4.10 | 1.96 |
| 2023 | 3.80 | 1.96 |
| 2024 | 4.60 | 1.96 |
| 2025 (Nov) | 5.30 | 1.96 |
Note: Bulgaria’s currency board pegs the lev to the euro at a fixed rate of 1.96, limiting exchange rate flexibility. Inflation impacts are thus transmitted primarily through domestic price and wage dynamics rather than currency fluctuations.
FAQ
- What is the current inflation rate YoY in Bulgaria?
- The latest inflation rate YoY for Bulgaria is 5.30% as of November 2025, down from 5.60% in October.
- How does Bulgaria’s inflation compare historically?
- Inflation has risen from around 3.50% in mid-2025 to a recent peak of 5.60% in October, now easing slightly.
- What are the main risks to Bulgaria’s inflation outlook?
- Risks include volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions, wage pressures, and geopolitical tensions affecting trade.
Takeaway: Bulgaria’s inflation rate shows tentative easing but remains elevated, requiring careful policy calibration amid external uncertainties and structural pressures.
Bulgaria’s inflation rate YoY at 5.30% in November 2025 shows a decline from October’s 5.60%, yet remains above the 12-month average of 4.80%. This marks the first monthly easing after four consecutive months of rising inflation, signaling a potential peak.
Energy price stabilization and easing commodity costs contributed to this moderation, while food and services inflation remain elevated. The chart below illustrates this trend, highlighting the recent peak in October and the slight pullback in November.