Bulgaria’s retail sales growth accelerated sharply in November 2025, posting a 0.80% month-on-month increase. This figure notably exceeds the 0.30% market estimate and the 0.20% rise recorded in October, according to the Sigmanomics database. The uptick reflects broad-based consumer spending gains across urban centers, supported by steady wage growth and improving labor market conditions.

Drivers this month

• Shelter and household goods contributed 0.25 percentage points (pp) to growth.
• Food and beverages rose by 0.18 pp, reflecting seasonal demand.
• Automotive and durable goods added 0.15 pp, boosted by promotional campaigns.
• Online retail sales expanded 0.10 pp, continuing a long-term trend.
• Clothing and footwear saw a modest 0.07 pp increase.

Policy pulse

The 0.80% MoM gain outpaces the Bulgarian National Bank’s inflation target range of 2-3% annualized, signaling healthy real consumption growth. Monetary policy remains accommodative, with the central bank holding key rates steady at 1.50%. Financial conditions are supportive, with credit growth stable and consumer confidence elevated.

Market lens

Immediate market reaction: The Bulgarian lev (BGN) appreciated 0.30% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in domestic demand. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, while the SOFIX index gained 0.40%, signaling positive investor sentiment.

Retail sales growth is a core macroeconomic indicator, closely linked to GDP and employment trends. Bulgaria’s 0.80% MoM increase in November compares favorably with the 12-month average of 0.35% and the subdued 0.20% reading in October. This rebound suggests resilience amid global uncertainties and domestic policy support.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bulgarian National Bank’s steady policy stance, combined with stable inflation around 2.50% YoY, underpins consumer purchasing power. Credit to households grew 4.20% YoY in October, supporting retail financing. The real effective exchange rate remains competitive, aiding import substitution in retail goods.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal stimulus measures, including targeted subsidies and tax relief for low-income households, have bolstered disposable income. The government’s 2025 budget projects a 1.80% GDP deficit, allowing room for continued social spending without overheating the economy.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Regional tensions in the Balkans and energy price volatility pose downside risks. However, Bulgaria’s diversified trade links and energy diversification efforts mitigate immediate shocks. The retail sector remains sensitive to consumer confidence shifts tied to geopolitical developments.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SOFIX rallied 0.40% post-release, while the BGN strengthened 0.30% versus EUR. Short-term yields declined, reflecting expectations of sustained domestic demand and stable inflation.

Looking ahead, Bulgaria’s retail sales trajectory depends on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) projects continued moderate growth of 0.40-0.60% MoM through Q1 2026, supported by stable inflation and steady wage gains. This aligns with the central bank’s inflation target and fiscal prudence.

Bullish scenario

• Probability: 25%
• Retail sales accelerate above 0.80% MoM, driven by stronger wage growth and increased consumer credit availability.
• Positive spillovers from EU structural funds and improved investor sentiment.

Bearish scenario

• Probability: 15%
• Retail sales slow to below 0.20% MoM due to renewed geopolitical tensions or energy price shocks.
• Consumer confidence weakens amid inflationary pressures or tighter credit conditions.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term, Bulgaria’s retail sector is evolving with digitalization and urbanization. E-commerce penetration rose to 18% of total retail sales in 2025, up from 12% in 2023. Demographic shifts and rising middle-class incomes support sustained consumption growth, though challenges remain in rural areas.

Bulgaria’s November 2025 retail sales MoM growth of 0.80% signals a robust consumer sector, outpacing expectations and recent trends. Supported by accommodative monetary policy, prudent fiscal measures, and improving labor market conditions, the data suggests a resilient domestic economy. However, external risks and structural shifts warrant close monitoring. Financial markets have responded positively, reflecting confidence in Bulgaria’s growth outlook.

Continued vigilance on inflation, credit conditions, and geopolitical developments will be key to sustaining momentum. The retail sector’s evolution toward digital channels and urban demand patterns offers growth opportunities. Overall, Bulgaria’s retail sales performance bodes well for broader economic stability and expansion in the near term.

Insight: Retail Sales vs. SOFIX Index Since 2020

Since 2020, Bulgaria’s retail sales MoM growth and the SOFIX index have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of retail acceleration, such as Q2 2021 and Q1 2023, coincided with SOFIX rallies of 5-7%. Conversely, retail slowdowns aligned with market corrections. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer demand as a driver of equity market performance in Bulgaria.

FAQs

What is the significance of Bulgaria’s Retail Sales MoM data?

The Retail Sales MoM data measures monthly changes in consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth and inflation in Bulgaria.

How does the latest retail sales figure compare historically?

The 0.80% MoM increase in November 2025 is the strongest monthly gain since March 2025 and well above the 12-month average of 0.35%.

What are the main risks affecting Bulgaria’s retail sales outlook?

Key risks include geopolitical tensions in the Balkans, energy price volatility, and potential tightening of credit conditions.

Final Takeaway: Bulgaria’s retail sales rebound in November 2025 highlights resilient consumer demand, supported by stable macro policies and improving labor markets. While external risks remain, the outlook for sustained retail growth is positive, underpinning broader economic stability.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.