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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to -4.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to -4.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 2.0% from August's -2.1% reading. The reading missed the -0.3% consensus by 3.8%. Tourist Arrivals YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged -1.65%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. Tourist Arrivals YoY is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-4.1
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
-2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.88 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -2.78
Actual: -4.1
Error: +1.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Bulgaria) was reported at -4.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.3% by 3.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of -2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.11%, ranging from -4.1% to 6.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.47%, down from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.31%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.86%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 1.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.88%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - BG
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -4.1 %, consensus -0.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -2.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | BG | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | BG | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low | |