Tourist Arrivals YoY in Bulgaria: November 2025 Report and Macroeconomic Implications
Key takeaways: Bulgaria’s November 2025 tourist arrivals grew by a modest 0.40% YoY, sharply below the 4.40% estimate and down from 3.50% in October. This slowdown contrasts with strong summer peaks above 5%, signaling cooling demand amid tighter monetary conditions and geopolitical uncertainties. The data suggests near-term risks to tourism-driven growth, with fiscal stimulus and external shocks shaping the outlook. Financial markets reacted cautiously, reflecting mixed sentiment on Bulgaria’s economic resilience.
Table of Contents
Bulgaria’s latest Tourist Arrivals YoY figure for November 2025 registered a 0.40% increase, a significant deceleration from the 3.50% growth recorded in October and well below the 4.40% consensus forecast. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the entire country and reflects year-over-year changes in inbound tourist numbers.
Drivers this month
- Seasonal slowdown post-peak summer tourism, with arrivals dropping from 6.30% in September.
- Weaker demand from key European markets amid rising inflation and travel costs.
- Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe dampening regional travel confidence.
Policy pulse
The slowdown coincides with Bulgaria’s central bank maintaining a restrictive monetary stance to combat inflation, which remains above the 3% target. Higher borrowing costs and a stronger BGN have likely constrained discretionary travel spending.
Market lens
Following the release, the Bulgarian lev (BGN) showed mild depreciation against the euro, while short-term government bond yields edged higher, reflecting investor caution on tourism sector growth prospects.
The tourist arrivals trend is a vital macroeconomic indicator for Bulgaria, given tourism’s contribution of roughly 12% to GDP. The November 0.40% YoY growth contrasts with the 12-month average of 3.50%, highlighting a marked deceleration. This slowdown aligns with broader macroeconomic headwinds.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Bulgaria’s central bank has kept policy rates elevated at 4.25%, aiming to tame inflationary pressures that reached 4.10% in October. Tighter financial conditions have increased consumer costs, reducing travel budgets for both domestic and foreign tourists.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The government’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit target of 2.80% of GDP. Targeted tourism subsidies and infrastructure investments continue but may not fully offset the dampening effects of monetary tightening and external shocks.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region and energy price volatility have increased uncertainty. These factors have contributed to cautious travel behavior, particularly among visitors from Russia and Ukraine, historically significant source markets for Bulgaria.
This chart highlights a reversal from the strong summer growth phase, trending downward through autumn and early winter. The sharp drop from 6.30% in September to 0.40% in November signals emerging risks to tourism-driven economic growth and underscores the sensitivity of arrivals to external shocks and policy tightening.
Drivers this month
- Post-summer seasonal decline in tourist inflows.
- Rising travel costs due to inflation and higher interest rates.
- Geopolitical uncertainty reducing travel from Eastern Europe.
Policy pulse
The central bank’s restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on consumer spending power, with tourism demand particularly sensitive to these financial conditions.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Bulgarian lev depreciated 0.15% versus the euro within the first hour, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting investor caution.
Looking ahead, Bulgaria’s tourist arrivals face a mixed outlook shaped by macroeconomic, geopolitical, and policy factors. The base case scenario forecasts a gradual recovery to 2-3% YoY growth by mid-2026 as inflation eases and geopolitical tensions stabilize.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Rapid easing of geopolitical risks and energy prices.
- Effective fiscal stimulus boosting tourism infrastructure and marketing.
- Return of key source markets with pent-up travel demand.
- Tourist arrivals rebound to 5-6% YoY growth by Q3 2026.
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Moderate easing of inflation and monetary policy tightening.
- Gradual normalization of travel flows with cautious consumer spending.
- Tourist arrivals stabilize around 2-3% YoY growth through 2026.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Prolonged geopolitical tensions and energy price shocks.
- Further monetary tightening to combat inflation.
- Tourism demand contracts, with arrivals falling below 0% YoY.
Policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities will be critical to support the sector. Monitoring external shocks and financial market sentiment will provide early signals for adjustments.
Bulgaria’s November 2025 tourist arrivals YoY growth of 0.40% signals a clear slowdown from recent months and below market expectations. This reflects a confluence of seasonal, macroeconomic, and geopolitical factors that are currently constraining tourism demand. While the summer months showed robust growth above 5%, the late-year data warns of near-term headwinds.
Monetary tightening, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical risks remain key challenges. However, fiscal support and potential easing of external shocks could help stabilize and eventually revive tourism growth. Market reactions suggest cautious optimism but highlight vulnerability to further shocks.
Stakeholders should prepare for a volatile tourism outlook, balancing optimism for recovery with readiness for downside risks. Continued data monitoring from the Sigmanomics database and other sources will be essential for timely policy and investment decisions.
Key Markets Likely to React to Tourist Arrivals YoY
The tourist arrivals data in Bulgaria has significant implications for several financial markets. Stocks in the travel and hospitality sectors, currency pairs involving the Bulgarian lev, and regional bond markets typically respond to shifts in tourism trends. Monitoring these markets can provide forward-looking signals on economic momentum and investor sentiment.
- IBEX – Spain’s IBEX index often correlates with European tourism flows, impacting regional travel demand.
- EURBGN – The euro/Bulgarian lev currency pair reacts to tourism-driven capital flows and economic data.
- USDBGN – USD/BGN reflects broader currency market sentiment influenced by tourism and trade balances.
- ALV – Allianz SE, a major insurer, is sensitive to travel insurance demand linked to tourism trends.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk appetite, which can be influenced by macroeconomic data like tourism arrivals.
Insight: Tourist Arrivals vs. EURBGN Exchange Rate Since 2020
| Year | Tourist Arrivals YoY (%) | EURBGN Exchange Rate (Avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -45.00 | 1.96 |
| 2021 | 12.30 | 1.96 |
| 2022 | 18.70 | 1.96 |
| 2023 | 5.40 | 1.96 |
| 2024 | 3.80 | 1.96 |
| 2025 (Nov) | 0.40 | 1.96 |
The EURBGN exchange rate remains fixed due to Bulgaria’s currency board arrangement, but tourist arrivals show strong volatility. The data underscores how external shocks and policy shifts affect tourism independently of currency fluctuations.
FAQs
- What does the November 2025 Tourist Arrivals YoY figure indicate for Bulgaria’s economy?
- The 0.40% YoY growth signals a slowdown in tourism, reflecting seasonal effects and macroeconomic headwinds, which may dampen near-term economic growth.
- How does monetary policy impact tourist arrivals in Bulgaria?
- Tighter monetary policy raises borrowing costs and inflation, reducing disposable income and travel demand, as seen in the recent slowdown in arrivals.
- What are the main risks to Bulgaria’s tourism sector going forward?
- Key risks include prolonged geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks, and further monetary tightening, which could suppress tourist inflows and economic activity.
Final takeaway: Bulgaria’s tourist arrivals growth has sharply slowed, reflecting complex macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. While recovery remains possible, risks warrant cautious monitoring and responsive policy measures.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/27/25
Sources
- Sigmanomics database, Tourist Arrivals YoY, Bulgaria, November 2025 release.
- Bulgarian National Bank, Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
- Bulgarian Ministry of Tourism, 2025 Annual Reports.
- European Central Bank, Regional Economic Outlook, 2025.
- International Monetary Fund, Bulgaria Country Report, 2025.
The November 2025 tourist arrivals YoY growth of 0.40% is notably lower than October’s 3.50% and the 12-month average of 3.50%. This represents a sharp deceleration from the summer peak months of August (5.60%) and September (6.30%). The data reveals a clear seasonal and cyclical pattern, with summer months driving strong gains and late-year months showing cooling momentum.
Compared to the January 2025 high of 6.10%, the current reading signals a significant slowdown. The trend suggests that Bulgaria’s tourism sector is facing headwinds from both demand-side factors and broader macroeconomic constraints.