Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 2.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 2.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 3.8% from April's -1.4% reading. The reading missed the 4.5% consensus by 2.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.56%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged -0.45%, vs 5.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 40th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
4.5
Consensus
-1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.24 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2
Actual: 2.4
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Bulgaria) was reported at 2.4% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.5% by 2.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.92%, ranging from -3.1% to 6.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1%, down from the prior three at 5.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.17%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.13%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 3.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.24%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Tourist Arrivals YoY - BG
Loading chart data...
About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.9 | 0 | -0.8 | -0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 5.50 | Low |