Brazil’s trade surplus of BRL 5.84 billion in December 2025 marks a moderate decline from November’s BRL 6.57 billion but remains well above the 12-month average of BRL 5.20 billion. This signals sustained external demand despite global headwinds. The surplus reflects strong commodity exports, particularly soybeans and iron ore, offsetting rising import costs amid a recovering domestic economy.

Drivers this month

• Commodity exports up 3.50% MoM, led by soybeans and iron ore.
• Imports rose 2.10% MoM, driven by machinery and intermediate goods.
• Currency depreciation of 1.20% supported export competitiveness.

Policy pulse

The BoT surplus remains consistent with the central bank’s inflation target zone, supporting a cautious monetary policy stance. The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) is likely to maintain current interest rates, balancing inflation risks with growth concerns.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The BRL/USD pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting positive sentiment on Brazil’s external accounts. Local equity indices showed mild gains, led by commodity-linked sectors.

The December BoT reading of BRL 5.84 billion compares to a peak surplus of BRL 8.15 billion recorded in April 2025, illustrating a normalization after seasonal highs. Year-on-year, the surplus is down from BRL 7.24 billion in December 2024, reflecting softer global demand and higher import prices.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Brazil’s Selic rate currently stands at 11.25%, unchanged since October 2025. The stable trade surplus reduces pressure on the currency, allowing the BCB to avoid aggressive rate hikes. Inflation remains near 5.10% YoY, close to the 3.50% target midpoint, supporting a steady policy approach.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP in 2026. The trade surplus contributes positively to government revenues via export taxes and supports external debt servicing capacity.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global uncertainties, including US-China trade tensions and commodity price volatility, pose downside risks. However, Brazil’s diversified export base and recent trade agreements mitigate some exposure.

Drivers this month

• Iron ore exports increased 4.20% MoM, buoyed by Chinese demand.
• Machinery imports rose 3.10%, reflecting industrial investment.
• Currency depreciation of 1.20% enhanced export price competitiveness.

Policy pulse

The trade surplus supports the BCB’s neutral stance, with inflation expectations stable. The data reduces urgency for monetary tightening despite inflationary pressures from import costs.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Brazilian real appreciated modestly, while the Ibovespa index gained 0.40%, led by mining and agricultural stocks.

Looking ahead, Brazil’s trade surplus trajectory depends on global commodity demand, currency trends, and domestic economic policies. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Stronger global growth boosts commodity prices and export volumes.
• Currency stabilizes near current levels, supporting trade competitiveness.
• Trade surplus rises above BRL 7 billion monthly by mid-2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate global growth sustains current export levels.
• Currency fluctuates within a 3% range, balancing imports and exports.
• Trade surplus remains near BRL 5.50–6 billion monthly.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Global slowdown and commodity price drops reduce export earnings.
• Currency depreciation accelerates inflation, dampening demand.
• Trade surplus falls below BRL 4 billion, pressuring external accounts.

Structural & long-run trends

Brazil’s trade balance is increasingly influenced by commodity cycles and global supply chain shifts. Long-term diversification efforts and infrastructure investments will be critical to stabilizing external accounts and supporting sustainable growth.

Brazil’s December 2025 trade surplus of BRL 5.84 billion reflects a resilient external sector amid mixed global signals. While the surplus declined from November, it remains above the annual average, supporting macro stability. Policymakers face a balancing act between inflation control and growth support, with the trade balance providing some buffer. External risks persist, but Brazil’s commodity strength and fiscal discipline offer a solid foundation for 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade

Brazil’s trade balance influences several key markets, including currency pairs, equities, and commodities. The following symbols historically track or respond to BoT fluctuations, reflecting Brazil’s economic linkages and investor sentiment.

• BRLUSD – The Brazilian real’s exchange rate versus the US dollar is sensitive to trade surplus changes, impacting currency strength.
• PETR4.SA – Petrobras stock correlates with export-driven commodity prices and macroeconomic stability.
• VALE3.SA – Vale’s iron ore exports are a major driver of Brazil’s trade surplus and market sentiment.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk appetite shifts linked to emerging market trade data.
• EURBRL – Euro to Brazilian real exchange rate reacts to trade balance and geopolitical developments.

FAQ

What is the current Balance of Trade for Brazil?

The latest Balance of Trade for Brazil is a surplus of BRL 5.84 billion as of December 2025.

How does Brazil’s trade balance affect its economy?

Brazil’s trade surplus supports currency stability, government revenues, and external debt servicing, influencing monetary and fiscal policies.

What are the risks to Brazil’s trade balance outlook?

Risks include global commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations that could reduce export competitiveness.

Takeaway: Brazil’s trade surplus remains a key pillar of macroeconomic stability, balancing external pressures and supporting cautious policy in 2026.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.