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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Bank Lending MoM fell to 0.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Bank Lending MoM fell to 0.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 0.5% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.68%. Over the past 3 months, Bank Lending MoM averaged 0.4%, vs 0.5% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 23rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
1
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.93
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Bank Lending MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.4% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.58%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.4%, down from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.34%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Bank Lending MoM has averaged 0.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Bank Lending MoM - BR
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About Bank Lending MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Bank Lending MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of loans and credit extended by banks to individuals and businesses on a monthly basis. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the economy and the level of consumer and business confidence. A positive Bank Lending MoM indicates an increase in borrowing and spending, which can stimulate economic growth, while a negative reading may suggest a slowdown in economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |