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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Business Confidence climbed to 46.2% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Business Confidence climbed to 46.2% in October 2026, up 1.3% from September's 44.9% reading. The print exceeded the 44.0% consensus by 2.2%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.0%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 45.37%, vs 46.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
46.2
Actual
44
Consensus
44.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 44.18
Actual: 46.2
Error: -2.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Brazil) was reported at 46.2% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 44% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 44.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 46.68%, ranging from 44.4% to 48.3% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 45.8%, down from the prior three at 46.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.25%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.68%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 48.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.89%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - BR
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About Business Confidence — Brazil
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 46.2 %, consensus 44 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 44.9 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 44.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |