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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Business Confidence fell to 46.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil Business Confidence fell to 46.7% in June 2026, down 0.5% from May's 47.2% reading. The reading matched the 46.5% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.9%. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
46.7
Actual
46.5
Consensus
47.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.73 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 46.58
Actual: 46.7
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Brazil) was reported at 46.7% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 46.5% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 47.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.19%, ranging from 46.1% to 48.3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 46.83%, down from the prior three at 48.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.72%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.8%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 48.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Business Confidence - BR
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About Business Confidence — Brazil
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 46.7 %, consensus 46.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 47.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 45.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.