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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Business Confidence fell to 44.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Business Confidence fell to 44.4% in July 2026, down 2.3% from June's 46.7% reading. The reading matched the 46.3% consensus. Business Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 46.37%, vs 47.4% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 34 months.
Latest Release
44.4
Actual
46.3
Consensus
46.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 46.65
Actual: 44.4
Error: +2.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Brazil) was reported at 44.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 46.3% by 1.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 46.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 46.89%, ranging from 44.4% to 48.3% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 46.1%, down from the prior three at 47.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.12%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.05%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 47.28%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.89%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jul 31) and Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Confidence - BR
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About Business Confidence — Brazil
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 44.4 %, consensus 46.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 46.7 %. Before that (May 2026): 47.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |