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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Business Confidence climbed to 47.2% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil Business Confidence climbed to 47.2% in May 2026, up 2.0% from April's 45.2% reading. The reading matched the 46.0% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.7%. The reading is in the 21st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
47.2
Actual
46
Consensus
45.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 45.63
Actual: 47.2
Error: -1.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Brazil) was reported at 47.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 46% by 1.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 45.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.36%, ranging from 46.1% to 48.6% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.33%, down from the prior three at 47.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.8%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.74%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 49.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.89%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 10) and Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Confidence - BR
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About Business Confidence — Brazil
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 47.2 %, consensus 46 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 45.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 46.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.