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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Car Production MoM climbed to 6.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil Car Production MoM climbed to 6.3% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 15.8% from April's -9.5% reading. The print exceeded the 4.5% consensus by 1.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.12%. Over the past 3 months, Car Production MoM averaged 9.05%, vs -1.47% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.3
Actual
4.5
Consensus
-9.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.26 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.5
Actual: 6.3
Error: -1.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Car Production MoM (Brazil) was reported at 6.3% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.5% by 1.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of -9.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -15.8% to 24.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.9%, up from the prior three at -8.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.36%) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.68%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Car Production MoM has averaged -7.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.26%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Car Production MoM - BR
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About Car Production MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Car Production MoM is a financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the total number of cars produced by a country's automotive industry. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the automotive sector, which is a key driver of economic activity and employment. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry analysts as a barometer of overall economic performance and consumer demand. A positive trend in Car Production MoM indicates a strong and expanding automotive industry, while a negative trend may signal a slowdown or contraction in the sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 6.3 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -9.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 27.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish USD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.