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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI fell to 3.81% in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Brazil CPI fell to 3.81% in February 2026, released March 2026, down 0.63% from January's 4.44% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.78%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 3.03%, vs 2.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.81
Actual
3.77
Consensus
4.44
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 3.79
Actual: 3.81
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Bearish Bovespa | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (Brazil) was reported at 3.81% in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.77% by 0.04%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.44%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.02%, ranging from -0.11% to 5.35% across 18 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.66%, down from the prior three at 4.39%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.2%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.26%). In March readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 3.46%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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CPI - BR
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About CPI — Brazil
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 3.81 %, consensus 3.77 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 0.84 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 4.44 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.