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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil FGV Consumer Confidence fell to 88.3 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence fell to 88.3 in July 2026, down 0.4 from June's 88.7 reading. The reading matched the 88.5 consensus. FGV Consumer Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, FGV Consumer Confidence averaged 88.78, vs 87.77 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
88.3
Actual
88.5
Consensus
88.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.38
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 88.02
Actual: 88.3
Error: -0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
FGV Consumer Confidence (Brazil) was reported at 88.30 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 88.50 by 0.20. The reading fell from the previous value of 88.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 88.19, ranging from 86.10 to 90.20 across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 88.60, up from the prior three at 87.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.20) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.13). In July readings over the past 3 years, FGV Consumer Confidence has averaged 89.30.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.38.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Jul 31) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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FGV Consumer Confidence - BR
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About FGV Consumer Confidence — Brazil
DEFINITION
FGV Consumer Confidence is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the current and future state of the economy. It is based on a survey of consumer attitudes towards their personal finances, job prospects, and overall economic conditions. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and can be used by businesses and policymakers to gauge consumer sentiment and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 88.3, consensus 88.5. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 88.7. Before that (May 2026): 88.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |