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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil FGV Consumer Confidence climbed to 84.7 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence climbed to 84.7 in October 2026, up 0.5 from September's 84.2 reading. The reading matched the 83.7 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 3.8. Over the past 3 months, FGV Consumer Confidence averaged 84.45, vs 88.68 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
84.7
Actual
83.7
Consensus
84.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.9
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 82.78
Actual: 84.7
Error: -1.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
FGV Consumer Confidence (Brazil) was reported at 84.70 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 83.70 by 1.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 84.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 87.48, ranging from 84.20 to 90.20 across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 84.53, down from the prior three at 88.60. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.98) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.25). In October readings over the past 3 years, FGV Consumer Confidence has averaged 88.73.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.90.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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FGV Consumer Confidence - BR
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About FGV Consumer Confidence — Brazil
DEFINITION
FGV Consumer Confidence is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the current and future state of the economy. It is based on a survey of consumer attitudes towards their personal finances, job prospects, and overall economic conditions. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and can be used by businesses and policymakers to gauge consumer sentiment and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 84.7, consensus 83.7. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 84.2. Before that (Aug 2026): 84.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |