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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil FGV Consumer Confidence fell to 84.7 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence fell to 84.7 in August 2026, down 3.6 from July's 88.3 reading. The reading matched the 88.6 consensus. FGV Consumer Confidence has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, FGV Consumer Confidence averaged 88.5, vs 88.72 in the prior 3-month window. FGV Consumer Confidence is now the lowest in 16 months.
Latest Release
84.7
Actual
88.6
Consensus
88.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.86
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 88.23
Actual: 84.7
Error: +3.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
FGV Consumer Confidence (Brazil) was reported at 84.70 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 88.60 by 3.90. The reading fell from the previous value of 88.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 88.07, ranging from 84.70 to 90.20 across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 87.23, down from the prior three at 88.57. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.45) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.96). In August readings over the past 3 years, FGV Consumer Confidence has averaged 88.03.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.86.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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FGV Consumer Confidence - BR
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About FGV Consumer Confidence — Brazil
DEFINITION
FGV Consumer Confidence is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the current and future state of the economy. It is based on a survey of consumer attitudes towards their personal finances, job prospects, and overall economic conditions. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and can be used by businesses and policymakers to gauge consumer sentiment and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 84.7, consensus 88.6. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 88.3. Before that (Jun 2026): 88.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |